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Author Topic: A man and his $$$ or BTC will soon be parted  (Read 1524 times)
Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 06:39:47 PM
 #1

Before I begin, I just want to say that I think bitcoins are a good idea. Scratch that and sarcasm aside, bitcoins are a great idea. My presuppositions and arguments against the current marketplace for bitcoins are simple: mining for bitcoins as well as people scrupulous beliefs about bitcoin and it's ideology, have overstated the actually value of BTC per USD. Now, What bothers me the most about the bitcoins marketplace is that there essentially isn't one.  Sure there are a few "websites" I can go to exchange this new currency for small items (socks, snacks) and services (web hosting), which is good.  However, for other more sought after tangible items this simply is not the case.  Do you know of anyone that would trade a modern computer (i7 or i5) for bitcoins? Perhaps a used car? I'm sure there are rare individuals that might and perhaps do, but those people are in the minority. With the price of BTC rising per USD so quickly it makes it difficult to establish a marketplace. Why? well firstly, people cannot fix a price to tangible items in terms of BTC (more difficult at least because the market fluctuation). Moreover, people watching the market fluctuations will continue to horde their BTC's because it seen as lucrative at the moment.  Conversely, the minute people actually see BTC's is overly inflated in terms of value, people will dump them as fast as possible.  More on that point later.

For me, it seems that bitcoins are only worth what has been invested in them and to a greater or lesser degree, what people believe they are worth.  Beliefs aside, what tangible assets have been invested in bitcoins?  Computers and electricity and Satoshi's time in creating it as well as other people time in creating websites, software etc.?  Do people really think they can buy some computer equipment run a program and become millionaires over night, maybe over a year? Maybe I suppose if the people participating in the bitcoin market actually believe that someone else's computer solving problem capabilities is worth millions or thousands over time.  Wait, that might be giving too much credit for what people believe. Maybe people believe that the ideology behind bitcoins is worth millions, hell I don't know. Sure I certainly understand that mining for bitcoins ensure the p2p network remains active, but does that role warrant potentially millions of dollars for spending a few thousand depending on when you "got" in the mining for bitcoins game?  Until a more diverse trusted marketplace is established counterbalancing the inflated value of bitcoins, bitcoins will continue to be overvalued. Currently, the value derived from bitcoins are based heavily on circumspect and beliefs and to a minor degree tangible computer equipment costs.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be a cynic or a debbie downer.  In fact, I think bitcoins as an idea and in practice have application.  I just think that if the price of BTC continues to be derived in the manner that it is, it will only work against establishing a practical value based use of BTC.

Let the flaming begin... I'm sure I will be swimming in troll dung shortly and sadly Sad.

Syirrus

  
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June 08, 2011, 06:44:51 PM
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You can get the computer for Bitcoin. Bitegg offers anything on Newegg for Bitcoin.

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Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 06:51:30 PM
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You can get the computer for Bitcoin. Bitegg offers anything on Newegg for Bitcoin.

Thank you for pointing that out.  I didn't know about that resource.  I see that 3 people are alleged to have participated in a successful transaction.  Definitely something to follow.

Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 06:59:11 PM
 #4

I have a 1987 BMW 528e that I will sell for 100 BTC.
Local pickup only.

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June 08, 2011, 07:13:47 PM
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Let us not assume beforehand that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, neither that it will be the future currency. From other axioms I believe it is the latter:

As long as BTC rises drastically in value, people will hoard.
Let me call ambient rise in value the rise in value of humon society (all food, technology, music,... society finds better ways to do things everyday, society grows).
As long as there are enough newcomers to the "ponzi scheme" (some actually believe it is and consciously enter it realizing they are among the first, let me call these ponzi newcomers), the value will keep rising, however the difference between a future trader and a ponzi newcomer is not a thin line. At some point in time, the specular rise in value will diminish and start fluctuating about the ambient rise. Now that segment of BTC holders that were pure ponzi investors will get out of the game decreasing its value somewhat. It is a public secret that if a BTC bank run happens, your BTC could end up worthless. Why would a trader sell his BTC for nothing? At this point you have non ponzi mindset investors still owning BTC. But remember as the specular rise fell away, only an ambient rise is present (that a-rise from average real world work), so hoarding is no longer an issue, and trading WILL commence.

Your argument mathematically equates the claim that value is not a continuous function over time. This is true and false, it is true in that a specific trade of BTC vs USD has a spread as we all know. But there are average values, and these are most certainly continuous.

What you say amounts to: BTC value as a continuous function, is now rising (positive slope), and will -WITHOUT flat 0 slope- start falling (negative slope). The crucial magic of BTC trade will happen once the value starts stabilizing.

The ponzi mindset investors, (who do not actually value the crypto nature of the currency, but societies interest in it) will "step out"/keep their BTC in the new trade system that will really only materialize when nearly all ponzi mindset newcomers feel left out in the cold.

The unfair distribution feeling is a necessary part of BTC that tells your ponzi side of your (sub)consciousness that you wont be making money out of thin air after all.

You could claim that these feelings have been posted on the boards for a long time now, but still the value of BTC is rising like crazy. This just means that there still is a considerable part of newcomers who believe they can ponzi their way with Bitcoin. *some* day old news for some will also be old news for most.

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June 08, 2011, 07:20:57 PM
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 Do you know of anyone that would trade a modern computer (i7 or i5) for bitcoins? Perhaps a used car? I'm sure there are rare individuals that might and perhaps do, but those people are in the minority.

I don't know about a car, but how about a plane?

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Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 07:24:18 PM
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I have a 1987 BMW 528e that I will sell for 100 BTC.
Local pickup only.

Is your 1987 BMW worth $3000.00 USD?
Apparently as of right now that is what 100 BTC is approximately worth.  
Right on, let me know if someone buys.  I would really like to know that bitcoin is working.
Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 07:30:40 PM
 #8

Let us not assume beforehand that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, neither that it will be the future currency. From other axioms I believe it is the latter:

As long as BTC rises drastically in value, people will hoard.
Let me call ambient rise in value the rise in value of humon society (all food, technology, music,... society finds better ways to do things everyday, society grows).
As long as there are enough newcomers to the "ponzi scheme" (some actually believe it is and consciously enter it realizing they are among the first, let me call these ponzi newcomers), the value will keep rising, however the difference between a future trader and a ponzi newcomer is not a thin line. At some point in time, the specular rise in value will diminish and start fluctuating about the ambient rise. Now that segment of BTC holders that were pure ponzi investors will get out of the game decreasing its value somewhat. It is a public secret that if a BTC bank run happens, your BTC could end up worthless. Why would a trader sell his BTC for nothing? At this point you have non ponzi mindset investors still owning BTC. But remember as the specular rise fell away, only an ambient rise is present (that a-rise from average real world work), so hoarding is no longer an issue, and trading WILL commence.

Your argument mathematically equates the claim that value is not a continuous function over time. This is true and false, it is true in that a specific trade of BTC vs USD has a spread as we all know. But there are average values, and these are most certainly continuous.

What you say amounts to: BTC value as a continuous function, is now rising (positive slope), and will -WITHOUT flat 0 slope- start falling (negative slope). The crucial magic of BTC trade will happen once the value starts stabilizing.

The ponzi mindset investors, (who do not actually value the crypto nature of the currency, but societies interest in it) will "step out"/keep their BTC in the new trade system that will really only materialize when nearly all ponzi mindset newcomers feel left out in the cold.

The unfair distribution feeling is a necessary part of BTC that tells your ponzi side of your (sub)consciousness that you wont be making money out of thin air after all.

You could claim that these feelings have been posted on the boards for a long time now, but still the value of BTC is rising like crazy. This just means that there still is a considerable part of newcomers who believe they can ponzi their way with Bitcoin. *some* day old news for some will also be old news for most.



I like your post upon an initial read. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.  Let me have a chance to digest your rebuttal and post an more approp. response.

Thank you again Smiley

hawks5999
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June 08, 2011, 07:52:07 PM
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Is your 1987 BMW worth $3000.00 USD?
Apparently as of right now that is what 100 BTC is approximately worth.  
Right on, let me know if someone buys.  I would really like to know that bitcoin is working.

I don't consider its value in US$. It's offered at 100 BTC.

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Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 09:29:57 PM
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Is your 1987 BMW worth $3000.00 USD?
Apparently as of right now that is what 100 BTC is approximately worth.  
Right on, let me know if someone buys.  I would really like to know that bitcoin is working.

I don't consider its value in US$. It's offered at 100 BTC.

Local is Washington State.

Then how do you assess the value of 100 BTC if you don't consider your vehicles value in USD?  In other words, what does the value of BTC constitute to you?  My next question would be does your value system of BTC track with what exists among BTC users?  I mean no disrespect with the questions I'm asking.

Syirrus
hawks5999
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June 08, 2011, 09:54:34 PM
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No disrespect taken.
Let me ask you. How do you assess the value of 100 USD? Do you only consider it's value in BTC? Of course not. Then why would you expect that BTC could only be valued in USD? Buying USD is only one activity you can perform with BTC. BTC could also be valued in cars - especially if you are in need of a car...

I leave it up to the buyer to make the decision if the value of the car is worth 100 BTC. If to them, it is, then we have have an agreement. If they think it is not worth 100 BTC, then we can negotiate or not have an agreement. The same thing happens every day in USD transactions. This is no different. You can choose to buy US$3000 (or $2830 at the moment. Maybe $1800 or $5000 tomorrow) with your 100 BTC or you can buy my car.  The car is for sale for 100 BTC.


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Syirrus
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June 08, 2011, 11:43:13 PM
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No disrespect taken.
Let me ask you. How do you assess the value of 100 USD? Do you only consider it's value in BTC? Of course not. Then why would you expect that BTC could only be valued in USD? Buying USD is only one activity you can perform with BTC. BTC could also be valued in cars - especially if you are in need of a car...

I leave it up to the buyer to make the decision if the value of the car is worth 100 BTC. If to them, it is, then we have have an agreement. If they think it is not worth 100 BTC, then we can negotiate or not have an agreement. The same thing happens every day in USD transactions. This is no different. You can choose to buy US$3000 (or $2830 at the moment. Maybe $1800 or $5000 tomorrow) with your 100 BTC or you can buy my car.  The car is for sale for 100 BTC.



How do you assess the value of 100 USD?

Good question, I base it on the diverse products and services I can acquire using USD. That is it's only real value. Since BTC is still new, the diverse offering of products and services is not yet (hopefully) well established.  I hope that this takes off.

Syirrus
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June 09, 2011, 01:18:20 AM
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Since BTC is still new, the diverse offering of products and services is not yet (hopefully) well established.  I hope that this takes off.

Most of what you said has been debated to death in hundreds of forum threads, so I won't bother to quote it. I will point out that there are lots of transactions going on which you aren't aware of and may never see openly. Some of the notable ones being gambling and drug sales. These alone easily account for the rise in exchange value. And you are also missing the merchants who are already using and promoting Bitcoin, such as MemoryDealers.

Open your eyes. Smiley

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December 25, 2011, 03:52:13 AM
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No disrespect taken.
Let me ask you. How do you assess the value of 100 USD? Do you only consider it's value in BTC? Of course not. Then why would you expect that BTC could only be valued in USD? Buying USD is only one activity you can perform with BTC. BTC could also be valued in cars - especially if you are in need of a car...

I leave it up to the buyer to make the decision if the value of the car is worth 100 BTC. If to them, it is, then we have have an agreement. If they think it is not worth 100 BTC, then we can negotiate or not have an agreement. The same thing happens every day in USD transactions. This is no different. You can choose to buy US$3000 (or $2830 at the moment. Maybe $1800 or $5000 tomorrow) with your 100 BTC or you can buy my car.  The car is for sale for 100 BTC.


I'm interested in your car for 100 btc.  How many miles on it?  Automatic or manual?

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