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Author Topic: Halving will happen in about 7 days  (Read 632 times)
kenshirothefist
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February 11, 2016, 11:18:17 PM
 #1

So ...

In about 7 days (today is Feb. 11th 2016) we'll see a next difficulty re-target, probably with approx. +25%.

The last seven re-targets were 9+18+11+9+6+20+25 (including the next one) which brings us to approx. +100%.

That is, Bitcoin mining profit will be halved compared to just November 2015. Price in November 2015 was just about the same as now is (approx $400).

This is a nice market and mining indicator. My prediction is that the reward halving, coming this summer will most probably have no significant effect on mining difficulty nor the prices. Sure diif will probably swing up and down a bit, prices as well (mostly because of media attention) but nothing big. The "halving" is happening all the time  Undecided

Just my 5 cents Wink

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notlist3d
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February 12, 2016, 12:55:04 AM
 #2

So ...

In about 7 days (today is Feb. 11th 2016) we'll see a next difficulty re-target, probably with approx. +25%.

The last seven re-targets were 9+18+11+9+6+20+25 (including the next one) which brings us to approx. +100%.

That is, Bitcoin mining profit will be halved compared to just November 2015. Price in November 2015 was just about the same as now is (approx $400).

This is a nice market and mining indicator. My prediction is that the reward halving, coming this summer will most probably have no significant effect on mining difficulty nor the prices. Sure diif will probably swing up and down a bit, prices as well (mostly because of media attention) but nothing big. The "halving" is happening all the time  Undecided

Just my 5 cents Wink

Basically the miners who mined and did not stop I think benefited.  A lot of us got really low changes in difficulty for a while, and it was a pretty great time for miners. But a lot of us mined were very lucky to keep mining during that period it feels like looking at current difficulty changes.  

Now fast forward to today's mining it's hurting so much hash each difficulty period. It is scary as heck we can get 40+ percent change in two difficulty periods.  I think we need either a big jump in price or some old miners to come off network.  And if we keep getting these jumps I think all the old A1's and some other miners even at cheap electricity will be stopped at a point.   But it's hard to say as someone or multiple people are adding a ton of hash.
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February 12, 2016, 06:23:52 AM
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...but last november the total network was hasing at ~500 ph, and 3 months before, only at ~350 ph; now we can see 1.400 ph -last month added +500 ph), if you turn off all the old miners (including all the spondoolies and antminer s1, s2, s3, s4/s4+, s5/s5+ and avalon 4.0/4.1), you will have a network over 1.000 ph and growing -and waiting for the new bitfury's chip-, so i only can spect a rise in diff anyway.

I read that bitmain could have done an exercise of brute force, but with this they are putting out of the market their best miner. Even if they are doing that, they also are destroing their market and make no sense to build new 14/16nm miners, so i don't understant -not at this moment- what can they win.

BTW, if the last hashpower added is not from bitmain, who is doing it??

Played with: USB RedFury - BlackArrows Prospero X1/X3 - Butterfly Monarch- Spondoolies SP20E - Avalon 6 - Antminer U3/S3/S3+/C1/S5/S7 Batches 3-7-8 - Sfards SF100 - Innosilicon A2 Terminator - Alcheminer 96/256 - KNC Titan - Etherum Rigs
kenshirothefist
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February 12, 2016, 06:53:12 AM
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I think we need either a big jump in price or some old miners to come off network.

Well, unfortunately there are no reasons to believe that either will happen - that was my point in original post. Old miners on free (or near free) electricity will keep on mining - there are no reasons why would they stop, even at a very low profitability and new miners with exceptional efficiency (BitFurry is the leader here) will come online. None of this would drive price increase or lowering hashing power.

Basically what I was trying to say is that home miners shouldn't care much about the 25->12.5 halving. It's probably irrelevant to price/difficulty. And like I said, the halving buzz will most likely drive some frenzy because of media buzz - similar as it was with Litecoin (on the last 50->25 halving), but in a couple of weeks things will go just normal, as if nothing happened.

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February 12, 2016, 07:41:51 AM
 #5

the diff was not so much below 100B when we were at 2xx price, so having 150B or so right now with almost double the price, is still not killing any profit

with a simple math you can verify that mega farm miners can profit even at 300B, with their super cheap rate
Pk880058
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February 12, 2016, 08:06:21 AM
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Their is so much Hype on Halving that some body telling that the price of bitcoin will reach above $500+ and some one is telling that after this Halving Most of the miner will be going to shut down their miners as their will be 50% down the production of Bitcoin. Now which is going to happen that can be known after the Halving period, but one this is sure that Halving news is getting too much hype from members and media.
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February 12, 2016, 04:37:07 PM
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...but last november the total network was hasing at ~500 ph, and 3 months before, only at ~350 ph; now we can see 1.400 ph -last month added +500 ph), if you turn off all the old miners (including all the spondoolies and antminer s1, s2, s3, s4/s4+, s5/s5+ and avalon 4.0/4.1), you will have a network over 1.000 ph and growing -and waiting for the new bitfury's chip-, so i only can spect a rise in diff anyway.

I read that bitmain could have done an exercise of brute force, but with this they are putting out of the market their best miner. Even if they are doing that, they also are destroing their market and make no sense to build new 14/16nm miners, so i don't understant -not at this moment- what can they win.

BTW, if the last hashpower added is not from bitmain, who is doing it??

That is excellent point

I expect all old shit finally will sink (despite the fact that shit does not sink)
We will face overall mining hash power go down - as a result increase in price and decrease in difficulties (at least on 2-3 14days periods)
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