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Author Topic: USD/BTC Decoupling from forum activity and search trends  (Read 4676 times)
bb113
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January 14, 2013, 08:32:33 PM
 #1



Whats it mean?
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January 14, 2013, 09:02:25 PM
 #2

More people using Bing?

A fixed amount of interest generates a larger price increase because new coins are flowing at a lower rate now?

Larger capital holders getting in (fewer searches per buck)?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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January 14, 2013, 09:11:51 PM
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Whats it mean?

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.
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January 14, 2013, 09:14:02 PM
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It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?
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January 14, 2013, 09:25:49 PM
 #5

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
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January 14, 2013, 09:30:09 PM
 #6

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
Ah, zeros are a pain.
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January 14, 2013, 10:06:47 PM
 #7

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
Ah, zeros are a pain.

Lets say I ignore the zeros, I am actually not sure how to do this. Do you

1) Normalize each series to its geometric mean
2) Normalize each series to an overall geometric mean
3) Normalize each timepoint to the geometric mean of all series at that timepoint
4) Something else?

Because the results I'm getting don't seem like they make sense
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January 14, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
 #8

Ok, I think this is what was being talked about:


All zeros were ignored when calculating geometric means using method 1 above (which makes the most sense, I had a bug in my code before).
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January 14, 2013, 10:33:44 PM
 #9

maybe a plausible conclusion is that a correction from this decoupling is about to occur after x time lag.

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January 14, 2013, 10:45:09 PM
 #10

maybe a plausible conclusion is that a correction from this decoupling is about to occur after x time lag.

keep dreaming... maybe you'll get us some cheap coins Wink

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 14, 2013, 10:47:48 PM
 #11

Cool. Could you do one for last 6 months?


casascius
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January 14, 2013, 10:51:39 PM
 #12

So that graph tells us Bitcoins are overpriced and the entire world of Bitcoin...

...is really supposed to be worth less than this one eighteenth-floor condo on Fifth Avenue...

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/781-Fifth-Ave_New-York_NY_10022_M35547-94171?source=web

I guess Bitcoin must not be the future of money then.  What are we all doing here?

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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January 15, 2013, 12:27:01 AM
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Cool. Could you do one for last 6 months?

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January 15, 2013, 02:14:26 AM
 #14

So that graph tells us Bitcoins are overpriced and the entire world of Bitcoin...

...is really supposed to be worth less than this one eighteenth-floor condo on Fifth Avenue...

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/781-Fifth-Ave_New-York_NY_10022_M35547-94171?source=web

I guess Bitcoin must not be the future of money then.  What are we all doing here?


Hoard bricks? Houses are made of them...  Smiley

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January 15, 2013, 05:56:13 AM
 #15

What I see from those really interesting graphics :

Any other data follow the BTC/USD price, with some lag.  Exception made of certain spike having no effect on the price.

It seems Bitcoin is still in infancy, as it still too much binded to is value related to the USD.  As a currency AND paiement system, IMHO it's far more promising than any previously existing currency / peiment processor.  The bitcoin phenomenon will really take place when a majority of peoples will see it as an entirely independant thing.  For now, it's too much related to his ratio VS other currency !

thanks OP for this nice work  Smiley

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January 15, 2013, 06:26:45 AM
 #16

How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?   And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.
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January 15, 2013, 06:32:43 AM
 #17

More people using Bing?

https://duckduckgo.com/

I'm sure Phin would love that name!
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January 15, 2013, 09:24:58 AM
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How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
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January 15, 2013, 09:30:15 AM
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How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
Sorry - I have no idea.  I never did this stuff.  It comes from the intuition of a model where new people buy bitcoins and keep them - driving the price up (the assumption that the price would go up in proportion of how much bitcoins are bought is not very sound though), and the opposite force of the supply of newly mined coins.
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January 15, 2013, 09:38:39 AM
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How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
Sorry - I have no idea.  I never did this stuff.  It comes from the intuition of a model where new people buy bitcoins and keep them - driving the price up (the assumption that the price would go up in proportion of how much bitcoins are bought is not very sound though), and the opposite force of the supply of newly mined coins.

sounds like a pretty solid theory to me.  I would probably use the integral of search hits over time instead of first derivative, (showing the accumulation of new users), given that 1000 hits now will probably have more impact on price than 1000 hits a few years from now (assuming bitcoin keeps growing).  To account for inflation, maybe its easiest to calculate what effect the news hits have on market cap instead of price (from which price can easily be calculated by dividing by nr of coins in circulation).
Maybe also add a component which accounts for some people becoming disillusioned over time and selling (no idea how to implement that yet).

By the way 123, how did you get this data?
Might be interesting to do pearson correlation with price (or market cap) as well: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/
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