Bitcoin Forum
February 25, 2018, 04:08:20 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish - 40 (93%)
Bearish - 3 (7%)
Total Voters: 43

Pages: [1] 2  All
  Print  
Author Topic: USD/BTC Decoupling from forum activity and search trends  (Read 4685 times)
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 08:32:33 PM
 #1



Whats it mean?
1519531700
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1519531700

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1519531700
Reply with quote  #2

1519531700
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1519531700
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1519531700

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1519531700
Reply with quote  #2

1519531700
Report to moderator
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
January 14, 2013, 09:02:25 PM
 #2

More people using Bing?

A fixed amount of interest generates a larger price increase because new coins are flowing at a lower rate now?

Larger capital holders getting in (fewer searches per buck)?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
dree12
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000



View Profile
January 14, 2013, 09:11:51 PM
 #3



Whats it mean?

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.
Fuzzy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560
Merit: 500



View Profile
January 14, 2013, 09:14:02 PM
 #4

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 09:25:49 PM
 #5

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
dree12
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000



View Profile
January 14, 2013, 09:30:09 PM
 #6

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
Ah, zeros are a pain.
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 10:06:47 PM
 #7

It means you shouldn't normalize it to the max. That doesn't make sense for most correlations. Instead, normalize to the geometric mean.

I concur.

Do you concur?

So what is the proper way to deal with zeros under these circumstances?
Ah, zeros are a pain.

Lets say I ignore the zeros, I am actually not sure how to do this. Do you

1) Normalize each series to its geometric mean
2) Normalize each series to an overall geometric mean
3) Normalize each timepoint to the geometric mean of all series at that timepoint
4) Something else?

Because the results I'm getting don't seem like they make sense
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
 #8

Ok, I think this is what was being talked about:


All zeros were ignored when calculating geometric means using method 1 above (which makes the most sense, I had a bug in my code before).
vokain
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1736
Merit: 1000


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 10:33:44 PM
 #9

maybe a plausible conclusion is that a correction from this decoupling is about to occur after x time lag.

         ▄█▄  ▄▄▄▄
          ▀ ▄██████▄
    ▄▄▄   ▄███▀▀███
  ▄█████▄ ▀█▀ ███▄ ▀▀
 ███▀  ▀██▄    ████▄   
 █▀ ▄██▄ ▀█▀ ▄██▀ ▀█▀ ▄██
  ▄██▀     ▄██▀     ▄██▀
 ██▀ ▄█▄ ▄██▀ ▄█▄  ██▀ ▄▄
      ▀███▀    ▀██▄  ▄██▀
     ▄▄ ▀██▄ ▄█▄ ▀█████▀
     ███▄▄██▀   ▀▀
      ▀██████▀
        ▀▀▀▀   ██▀

  █
  █
  █
████
  █
████
  █
████
  █
  █
  █


▄███▄    ▄███▄
███  ██▄ █▀▀▄
████████  ███▀
██▀ ▄███      
████████▄▄  ▄█▀
 ██████▀▀██▀▀
  ▀███▀▄▄   ▄
   ▀██▄██ ▄█▀
     ▀▀██▀▀
FULLY
ANONYMOUS

━━━━━
/

    ██▄▄              ▄▄██
   █▀  ▀█▄ ▄▄▄▄████▄██▀  ▀█
  █▀   ▄███▀▀▀       █▄   ▀█
 █▀   ▄███▄ ▄▄█▄▄     █▄   ▀█
██▄  ▄████████████▄▄  █▄  ▄██
  ▀▀██▀███████████████▄███▀▀
      ▀█▄█▀███████████▀▀
        ▀███▀███████▀
           ▀▀▀▀██▀▀
INSTANT
TRANSFER

━━━━
/

     ▄████▄
 ▄▄▄████████▄▄▄
▄██████████████▄
▀██▀ ▀█  ▀█ ███▀
 ██ ▀ █ ▀▄█ ███
▄██▄█▄█▄███▄███▄
▀██████████████▀
 ▀▀▀████████▀▀▀
     ▀████▀
API FOR YOUR
PROJECTS

━━━━

  █
  █
  █
████
  █
████
  █
████
  █
  █
  █
PARTNER PROGRAM
TOR MIRROR
MIX WALLET
.FAQ
ANN THREAD
TELEGRAM
notme
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904
Merit: 1001


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 10:45:09 PM
 #10

maybe a plausible conclusion is that a correction from this decoupling is about to occur after x time lag.

keep dreaming... maybe you'll get us some cheap coins Wink

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
byronbb
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000


HODL OR DIE


View Profile
January 14, 2013, 10:47:48 PM
 #11

Cool. Could you do one for last 6 months?


casascius
Mike Caldwell
VIP
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1386
Merit: 1028


The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)


View Profile WWW
January 14, 2013, 10:51:39 PM
 #12

So that graph tells us Bitcoins are overpriced and the entire world of Bitcoin...

...is really supposed to be worth less than this one eighteenth-floor condo on Fifth Avenue...

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/781-Fifth-Ave_New-York_NY_10022_M35547-94171?source=web

I guess Bitcoin must not be the future of money then.  What are we all doing here?

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 12:27:01 AM
 #13

Cool. Could you do one for last 6 months?

ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1610
Merit: 1000


God of the code.


View Profile WWW
January 15, 2013, 02:14:26 AM
 #14

So that graph tells us Bitcoins are overpriced and the entire world of Bitcoin...

...is really supposed to be worth less than this one eighteenth-floor condo on Fifth Avenue...

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/781-Fifth-Ave_New-York_NY_10022_M35547-94171?source=web

I guess Bitcoin must not be the future of money then.  What are we all doing here?


Hoard bricks? Houses are made of them...  Smiley
DoomDumas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 998
Merit: 1000


Bitcoin forever !


View Profile WWW
January 15, 2013, 05:56:13 AM
 #15

What I see from those really interesting graphics :

Any other data follow the BTC/USD price, with some lag.  Exception made of certain spike having no effect on the price.

It seems Bitcoin is still in infancy, as it still too much binded to is value related to the USD.  As a currency AND paiement system, IMHO it's far more promising than any previously existing currency / peiment processor.  The bitcoin phenomenon will really take place when a majority of peoples will see it as an entirely independant thing.  For now, it's too much related to his ratio VS other currency !

thanks OP for this nice work  Smiley

zby
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1581
Merit: 1000


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 06:26:45 AM
 #16

How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?   And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.
Herodes
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1000


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 06:32:43 AM
 #17

More people using Bing?

https://duckduckgo.com/

I'm sure Phin would love that name!
bb113
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 728
Merit: 500


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 09:24:58 AM
 #18

How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
zby
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1581
Merit: 1000


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 09:30:15 AM
 #19

How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
Sorry - I have no idea.  I never did this stuff.  It comes from the intuition of a model where new people buy bitcoins and keep them - driving the price up (the assumption that the price would go up in proportion of how much bitcoins are bought is not very sound though), and the opposite force of the supply of newly mined coins.
Spaceman_Spiff
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1638
Merit: 1000


₪``Campaign Manager´´₪


View Profile
January 15, 2013, 09:38:39 AM
 #20

How about treating the search hits as a first derivative of the price?  And maybe superimpose that over the inflation.

Sounds interesting. Can you give an example of how to do this?
Sorry - I have no idea.  I never did this stuff.  It comes from the intuition of a model where new people buy bitcoins and keep them - driving the price up (the assumption that the price would go up in proportion of how much bitcoins are bought is not very sound though), and the opposite force of the supply of newly mined coins.

sounds like a pretty solid theory to me.  I would probably use the integral of search hits over time instead of first derivative, (showing the accumulation of new users), given that 1000 hits now will probably have more impact on price than 1000 hits a few years from now (assuming bitcoin keeps growing).  To account for inflation, maybe its easiest to calculate what effect the news hits have on market cap instead of price (from which price can easily be calculated by dividing by nr of coins in circulation).
Maybe also add a component which accounts for some people becoming disillusioned over time and selling (no idea how to implement that yet).

By the way 123, how did you get this data?
Might be interesting to do pearson correlation with price (or market cap) as well: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/
Pages: [1] 2  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!