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zby
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January 16, 2013, 05:43:51 PM
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What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Looks like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.
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Luno
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January 16, 2013, 05:54:24 PM
 #2

We are in the same range now as 2011 where people bought in a frenzy on the way to $30. There must be a few who have waited a long time to get out of Bitcoin.

There was a guy who asked for advise some time ago. He bought 1000BTC at $22. People suggested he cashed out on a loss to buy up cheaper. Quite sensible advise at the time. But he would rather stick to his coins and sell when they was 22 or higher even if it took a long time.

Maybe that's the kind of out of the blue dumps we see?


 
 
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mccorvic
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January 16, 2013, 05:58:32 PM
 #3

We are in the same range now as 2011 where people bought in a frenzy on the way to $30. There must be a few who have waited a long time to get out of Bitcoin.

There was a guy who asked for advise some time ago. He bought 1000BTC at $22. People suggested he cashed out on a loss to buy up cheaper. Quite sensible advise at the time. But he would rather stick to his coins and sell when they was 22 or higher even if it took a long time.

Maybe that's the kind of out of the blue dumps we see?

I think this is a reasonable hypothesis.  I think we'll see less and less of them after we break the 2012 high and, after that, 2011 high.

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January 16, 2013, 09:48:47 PM
 #4

What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Looks like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.

This pattern is called a "right translated cycle".  Typical price action in a bull market.  Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections.

Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies.

More info:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.html
notme
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January 16, 2013, 09:50:51 PM
 #5

What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Looks like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.

This pattern is called a "right translated cycle".  Typical price action in a bull market.  Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections.

Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies.

More info:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.html


Indeed.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 17, 2013, 06:43:41 AM
 #6

Miners converting to fiat to pay for power and/or successful dice related site operators looking to diversify into other currencies.



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zby
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January 17, 2013, 07:21:49 AM
 #7

What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Looks like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.

This pattern is called a "right translated cycle".  Typical price action in a bull market.  Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections.

Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies.

More info:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.html


But is it normal for a "right translated cycle" to have so much more volume in the down turns?
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January 17, 2013, 07:34:04 AM
 #8

What do you make of the fact that the price goes up in small, continues steps - and then there come sudden big dumps.  Most of volume is on down moves - but it still goes up.  Look

s like the buyers have more cold blood - while the sellers are more impulsive.#

This pattern is called a "right translated cycle".  Typical price action in a bull market.  Slow methodical rises with short scary vertical drop corrections.

Bear will markets show the opposite action, slow steady declines punctuated by sharp short-covering rallies.

More info:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/Cycles2.html



But is it normal for a "right translated cycle" to have so much more volume in the down turns?

This is overall not really true.
We see strong volume accumulation on the upside over the past weeks.



zby
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January 17, 2013, 10:19:49 AM
 #9


But is it normal for a "right translated cycle" to have so much more volume in the down turns?

This is overall not really true.
We see strong volume accumulation on the upside over the past weeks.


Since yesterday yes - but before that for a few weeks all the big moves were sells.  Sometimes it is hard to see on the historic charts - because you need high resolution to see it - but this is what I remember.
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January 17, 2013, 10:49:33 AM
 #10


But is it normal for a "right translated cycle" to have so much more volume in the down turns?

This is overall not really true.
We see strong volume accumulation on the upside over the past weeks.


Since yesterday yes - but before that for a few weeks all the big moves were sells.  Sometimes it is hard to see on the historic charts - because you need high resolution to see it - but this is what I remember.

Look at the last 10 days on bitcoincharts with a timescale of 15 minutes.  You can confirm that the biggest moves were sells, including a 10k+ sell from $14.2x down to just under $14.00.
notme
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January 17, 2013, 02:32:26 PM
 #11

Distribution at these prices is more bullish long term than accumulation.  Who gives a shit about the short term, just buy when you get paid and don't worry about it.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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