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Author Topic: Search volumes says you are overpaying for your coins  (Read 2540 times)
epbaha
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January 16, 2013, 06:47:27 PM
 #1



source:  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q

Historical prices when "bitcoin" search levels were about the same as today:

January 2013 - $14.50
September 2012 - High volatility but around $10
January 2012 - $7
September 2011 - $7
May 2011 - $5

Additionally if we look at the graph, bitcoin prices roughly correlate with search volume until June 2012 when the price was $5.  I would think there would be a small rise in the price of bitcoin because some people buy it and forget it.  Thus, these people do not do "bitcoin" searches that often.  But I do not think this type of buyer justifies a doubling of the price from a year ago when we saw similar search volumes.  Search engine volume says you are overpaying for your bitcoins today.  I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.

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nobbynobbynoob
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January 16, 2013, 06:50:10 PM
 #2

That's a distinct possibility, but then, so is $50-$70. Since bitcoin can be volatile, we could even witness both! Truth is, no one knows till it happens.

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jwzguy
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January 16, 2013, 06:50:31 PM
 #3

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.

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notme
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January 16, 2013, 06:53:18 PM
 #4

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.


Roll Eyes

How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?

Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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lebing
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January 16, 2013, 06:55:58 PM
 #5

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.


Roll Eyes

How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?

Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.

This.

This graph is cumulative. It only helps over short periods to see spikes in newfound eyeballs. Theres no long term price correlation.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 16, 2013, 06:59:54 PM
 #6

Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin'  Grin

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q


jwzguy
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January 16, 2013, 07:01:57 PM
 #7

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.


Roll Eyes

How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?

Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
My point was, this idiot doesn't even believe what he's saying.
We "could see" first contact with aliens from 1000 light years away in 2013. I don't expect it, but we could.
This is incredibly weak and cowardly use of language.

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codymanix
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January 16, 2013, 07:04:47 PM
 #8

The OP can't be more wrong. Prices are high *although* there is not big mainstream media attention to bitcoin. This means, chances are less likely this is a short hype/bubble.
So these prices are real. I think the low prices of the last months/year were still due to an overcorrection from the big crash.

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January 16, 2013, 07:19:14 PM
 #9

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.


Roll Eyes

How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?

Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.
My point was, this idiot doesn't even believe what he's saying.
We "could see" first contact with aliens from 1000 light years away in 2013. I don't expect it, but we could.
This is incredibly weak and cowardly use of language.



Sorry for the confusion, but my response was targeted at OP.  I was just too lazy to pull the quote out like you did so I just quoted you.  I agree with your points.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 16, 2013, 07:19:55 PM
 #10

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=blockchain%2C%20buy%20bitcoins%2C%20sell%20bitcoins&cmpt=q


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January 16, 2013, 07:21:10 PM
 #11

Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin'  Grin

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q



damn!! wow.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 16, 2013, 07:49:42 PM
 #12

Every time I want to buy some more bitcoin, I start by just googling the word "bitcoin". Then I scroll through the results, and play a game not unlike 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon until I get to the Mt Gox login screen. I'm pretty sure this is how most of us do it, so this graph is valuable information.
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January 16, 2013, 07:57:01 PM
 #13

Maybe not many new people doing google searches for 'Bitcoin', but many are looking to 'Buy Bitcoin'  Grin

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoins&date=1%2F2011%2025m&cmpt=q



+1

Now THAT is the kind of example you can draw some conclusions around.
People that know about bitcoins aren't arbitrarily searching for the term "bitcoin". However, people that are looking to buy bitcoins would indeed search "buy bitcoins" and be taken to their respective exchanges. More buyers generally = higher prices, assuming that supply has stayed relatively equal, or at least has increased proportionately to the increase in demand without exceeding.

On the other hand, seeing a steady search for the term "bitcoin" could also allude to the fact that more and more people are learning about bitcoin, as mentioned previously, people that already know aren't going to arbitrarily search for the term. Therefore, to keep monthly search volume going on par requires roughly the same number of NEW people to be searching for the term, thus increasing the number of people that know about it and likely increasing the market (demand) for the product. Not only that, but with barrier to entry getting ever stronger, that same supply of people are not remotely as likely to become equal suppliers, thus keeping the supply capped while demand increases drastically.
wareen
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January 16, 2013, 08:35:13 PM
 #14

What's also worth considering: we don't really need that much new people buying into Bitcoin to justify the current price levels.

All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.

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January 16, 2013, 09:35:35 PM
 #15

What's also worth considering: we don't really need that much new people buying into Bitcoin to justify the current price levels.

All it needs to hold the current price level is about 20,000 Bitcoin enthusiasts that buy 5 BTC per month as an investment. Given the current estimated size of the Bitcoin community these numbers don't sound unrealistic and 5 BTC per month is probably about what's needed just to maintain the relative Bitcoin position (percentage of personal wealth) for many Bitcoiners that have a job.


+1. Also: Block reward = 25

Search volumes also says:
phatsphere
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January 16, 2013, 10:17:26 PM
 #16


Search volumes also says:

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL :-)
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January 17, 2013, 10:07:32 AM
 #17

OP is taking the wrong method to evaluate the value of bitcoin. For example, in the last summer, I searched bitcoin tens of times a day, and today I search 1 time a week. But I believed in bitcoin more than last summer.

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January 17, 2013, 02:29:54 PM
 #18

All I know is that I buy a lot more bitcoins now than back when I had to search for things about bitcoin.  Now I just use it.  If you want to see a spike in search volume, you need new users.  But, I believe many existing users are like me and regularly buy on exchanges with a small portion of their paychecks.  I don't think we will have a problem absorbing the new coins at this price.  It's the big holders that are the wildcard, but the big dumps haven't moved the price down much lately.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 17, 2013, 06:50:01 PM
 #19

All I know is that I buy a lot more bitcoins now than back when I had to search for things about bitcoin.  Now I just use it.  If you want to see a spike in search volume, you need new users.  But, I believe many existing users are like me and regularly buy on exchanges with a small portion of their paychecks.  I don't think we will have a problem absorbing the new coins at this price.  It's the big holders that are the wildcard, but the big dumps haven't moved the price down much lately.

I agree, there's just so many legitimate uses for bitcoin, we do not need to search for it, we know what it is. We now search for places to use it, for example interest in bitpay, bitcoin gambling etc... is skyrocketing in google trends.

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January 17, 2013, 09:58:11 PM
 #20

I think we could see $5 or $7 in 2013.
Such confidence.


Roll Eyes

How many times do established users google "bitcoin"?

Maybe if you looked at the integral of search volume you could find some rough correlation, but raw search volume vs. price is pretty useless.

I think the search volume for "bitcoin" might represent the first derivative of the price.
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