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Author Topic: What Mhash would I need to earn 1 BTC a day ?  (Read 10519 times)
peter12321a
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January 17, 2013, 02:15:57 AM
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What Mhash would I need to earn 1 BTC a day ?  Tongue
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purplesquid
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January 17, 2013, 02:18:57 AM
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Somewhere around 6 GH/s.

Anyone confirm?
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January 17, 2013, 02:19:30 AM
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6460 MH/s at current difficulty of 3249549.5

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January 17, 2013, 02:21:23 AM
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Except when ASICs come out (if they come out) it could be many multiples as difficult to mine. So you would need 10-20x based on estimates I have seen to get 1 BTC a day.

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January 17, 2013, 02:23:27 AM
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Yes, this is true. After (if) Avalon ASIC hits next week, after difficulty adjustment, expect it to take 12000 MH/s to earn 1 BTC/day. Once (if) BFL gets their ASICs online....well....a lot more will be needed.
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January 17, 2013, 02:28:25 AM
 #6

What Mhash would I need to earn 1 BTC a day ?  Tongue
Please have a look at these two calculators:

1. simple - only difficulty and hashrate
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

2. advanced - takes into account power consumption, initial investment, timeframe and profitability decline
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Try fiddling a bit with them. You will get all sorts of interesting results  Grin

-btcfollowers
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January 17, 2013, 02:29:58 AM
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What Mhash would I need to earn 1 BTC a day ?  Tongue

It depends on where the difficulty is.  

Today's Total Network hash rate is : about 25 TH/s
Difficulty is: 3,249,550

So about 7 GH/s would net you about 1 BTC per day.

However, once ASIC's are delivered in a week or three, the hash rate will go up.

If Avalon delivers next week they will be adding about 30 TH, some of the GPU will fall off.  So lets assume the total Network has rate doubles, then the difficulty will also double.  That means it will take double the hashing power.  So it will take 14 GH/s to make 1 BTC.

Butterfly labs is estimated to be delivering about 300 TH to the network.  So if you figure 300 for BFL and 30 for Avalon and then figure many more ASIC orders will pour in, a safe next estimate will be at 500 TH.  since that's 20 times the current hash rate, you will need 140 GH to earn 1 BTC per day.

Another way to look at it this there is a fixed rate of BTC that enter the market per day
25 BTC per Block * 6 blocks per hour * 24 hours per day = 3600 BTC per day.

So you would need 1/3,600 of the current average hash rate to earn 1 BTC per day.  

Remember that the average hash rate for the previous two weeks, which is what determines the current difficulty.

The difficult changes every 2016 blocks.  The difficulty is used to steady the rate of Blocks found to about 1 every 10 minutes.  So that works out to about a change in difficulty every 14 days.








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peter12321a
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January 17, 2013, 02:39:57 AM
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So basically I will never be able to earn a bitcoin with my 500 mhash
purplesquid
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January 17, 2013, 02:41:00 AM
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No, certainly not in one day. Mining is-a-changin'
peter12321a
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January 17, 2013, 02:45:09 AM
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Sound like I am getting into bitcoins at the worst time.......
purplesquid
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January 17, 2013, 02:46:13 AM
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Nah, just buy some coins directly and watch the exchange rate go up Cheesy

Or, double down on mining hardware *VERY RISKY at the moment*
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January 17, 2013, 03:57:27 AM
 #12

Currently, I would prefer to buy and hold btc. Much higher returns in the coming few months.

Shintax
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January 17, 2013, 04:49:20 AM
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What does this mean for alt. crypto currencies, like litecoin? Could this drive up exchange rates for others, or could it possibly have a negative effect?

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January 17, 2013, 05:11:27 AM
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It helps alt currencies that implement the proof of work concept as many of these miners jump on them which increases difficulty hence strengthening the currency.

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January 17, 2013, 07:27:09 AM
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So maybe that would be a good option for you Peter, just jump into an alternate bandwagon?

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January 17, 2013, 12:51:12 PM
 #16

Sound like I am getting into bitcoins at the worst time.......
Bitcoin is not only "mining"

And bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme. If you came here with your graphic card expecting to become rich with mining then you are wrong.
hexed
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January 17, 2013, 05:42:41 PM
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Yes, this is true. After (if) Avalon ASIC hits next week, after difficulty adjustment, expect it to take 12000 MH/s to earn 1 BTC/day. Once (if) BFL gets their ASICs online....well....a lot more will be needed.

I don't think Avalon's small batch will increase the network's difficulty THAT much.  At least not at first.  Not like it will be once Avalon comes out in more batches, and BFL starts shipping.
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