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Author Topic: Probability graph for next block  (Read 527 times)
CashBitango
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January 18, 2013, 03:44:04 AM
 #1

Referring to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135604.0

It would be cool if someone could put together a graph that shows the following:
The historical probability that a block is found after x amount of time. So for example when it's been 1 hour since last block, this might be a 5% chance event, and it happens on average multiple times per day. A 2 hour delay between blocks is perhaps a 1% chance, and it happens on average once per day. A 3 hour delay is perhaps 0.1%, and happens on average every 10 days etc.

My numbers are from the air, but you can see the picture.

I think it would be cool to have such a graph, and to be able to understand the probabilities we deal with.
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January 18, 2013, 07:20:14 AM
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I think they have that type of graph on blockchain.info, not sure if it's what you're looking for though
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January 18, 2013, 07:29:09 AM
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This might be the thread you're looking for: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135982.0

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January 18, 2013, 03:06:24 PM
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It would have to include the dimensions of current network hash rate and difficulty.  If the dificulty is set as a result of an average hash rate of 28 TH/s and the hash rate drops to an average of 18 TH/s the block is very likely to take longer than expected.  However if the reverse was true, the difficulty was based on 28 TH/s and the hash rate was suddenly 70 TH/s blocks would be solved quicker.

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