Bitcoin Forum
April 20, 2018, 01:24:56 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.0  [Torrent]. (New!)
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Probability graph for next block  (Read 529 times)
Jr. Member
Offline Offline

Activity: 53
Merit: 0

View Profile
January 18, 2013, 03:44:04 AM

Referring to this thread:

It would be cool if someone could put together a graph that shows the following:
The historical probability that a block is found after x amount of time. So for example when it's been 1 hour since last block, this might be a 5% chance event, and it happens on average multiple times per day. A 2 hour delay between blocks is perhaps a 1% chance, and it happens on average once per day. A 3 hour delay is perhaps 0.1%, and happens on average every 10 days etc.

My numbers are from the air, but you can see the picture.

I think it would be cool to have such a graph, and to be able to understand the probabilities we deal with.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
Offline Offline

Activity: 1582
Merit: 1005

View Profile
January 18, 2013, 07:20:14 AM

I think they have that type of graph on, not sure if it's what you're looking for though
Offline Offline

Activity: 2058
Merit: 1000

Poor impulse control.

View Profile WWW
January 18, 2013, 07:29:09 AM

This might be the thread you're looking for:

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
follow @oocBlog for new post notifications
Hero Member
Offline Offline

Activity: 588
Merit: 500

Available on Kindle

View Profile WWW
January 18, 2013, 03:06:24 PM

It would have to include the dimensions of current network hash rate and difficulty.  If the dificulty is set as a result of an average hash rate of 28 TH/s and the hash rate drops to an average of 18 TH/s the block is very likely to take longer than expected.  However if the reverse was true, the difficulty was based on 28 TH/s and the hash rate was suddenly 70 TH/s blocks would be solved quicker.

Kindle : Bitcoin Step by Step (2nd Ed) :
Kindle : Bitcoin Mining Step by Step :
Facebook :     Twitter : @BitcoinSbS
Pages: [1]
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!