Mining and the Halving

[notlist3d]

What do you think it will be the impact of the halving on mining?

Price will increase or difficulty will adapt, I think, no more no less but is a good question!

Good question but your anwser is not correct.  You are speculating.... could your anwser be correct?  Sure it might be.  But there is no way to guarantee a price increase or difficulty change.

You talk about things as fact's.  But espically on price increase there are no guarantees.

[MedaR]

I can assume the majority of mining farms will stay in China and this is it, because they have cheap electricity.
They will flourish in this business and we can expect further development to come from theirs labs.
But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable and will stay there for some time. But price (demand)  dictates tempo of mining.

[notlist3d]

I can assume the majority of mining farms will stay in China and this is it, because they have cheap electricity.
They will flourish in this business and we can expect further development to come from theirs labs.
But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable and will stay there for some time. But price (demand)  dictates tempo of mining.

It's more then just that though.  There are many places with cheap electricity.  Most miners are made in China at this point... so they keep cost down only having to ship in country.  Also seems to be not only cheap.... but just as important reliable electricity.

I disagree on "But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable".  Since it's a open market price adjusts these mega farms if not profitable they shutdown... but I don't think that is going to be a issue.  I foresee them being profitable, if they don't BTC fails.

[MedaR]

This way we will have constant race in hash power which is good for bitcoin and security of network but it is very difficult to achieve constant rise of price, one day you will see downfall, someone "big" will cause it, for sure.
This can trigger major fall , we can call it panic. This will launch smaller farms out of business.

[notlist3d]

This way we will have constant race in hash power which is good for bitcoin and security of network but it is very difficult to achieve constant rise of price, one day you will see downfall, someone "big" will cause it, for sure.
This can trigger major fall , we can call it panic. This will launch smaller farms out of business.

It's always been a race in power though.  Companies make new miners and pump out as much as they can for max profit.  Even in day's of early asic's tons were competing for sales and trying to sell A1 gear. 

As long is money in BTC mining there will be companies participating in the hashing rate race.  And in all honesty if there is not profit for those big makers means none for little guys..... and I think would lead to loss in price.  I think a certain amount of race of hash power is good.

[crazyivan]

It s simple, either the price goes up and doubles, due to reduced generation of new BTC or most of current miners will be shut down, which will in turn reduce difficulty and the race starts all over again. I prefer the first scenario but one simply can never know. Let s wait and see.

[MedaR]

Yes but many people believing only in endless rise and this is very dangerous when they realise endless
rise simple is not possible, and then problems will come with much speculations (dumps) with price and many can be
 burned this way. All this is very bad for adaptation and using of bitcoin as money.

[notlist3d]

Yes but many people believing only in endless rise and this is very dangerous when they realise endless
rise simple is not possible, and then problems will come with much speculations (dumps) with price and many can be
 burned this way. All this is very bad for adaptation and using of bitcoin as money.

Difficulty will always continue to rise as long as there is profit.  If we stop and lose lot's of hash, or stay's the same.... chances are BTC is not going to do so well.  It's always been a arms race and nothing shows it will stop.

Just look at last 9 month chart and you will see how it does increase .... and it will not stop as long as there is profit - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[Olaf]

Yes but many people believing only in endless rise and this is very dangerous when they realise endless
rise simple is not possible, and then problems will come with much speculations (dumps) with price and many can be
 burned this way. All this is very bad for adaptation and using of bitcoin as money.

Difficulty will always continue to rise as long as there is profit.  If we stop and lose lot's of hash, or stay's the same.... chances are BTC is not going to do so well.  It's always been a arms race and nothing shows it will stop.

Just look at last 9 month chart and you will see how it does increase .... and it will not stop as long as there is profit - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

But that arms race is a been one sided lol.

I dont got like $100k to start like those chinese mining group aka bitmain - and so cant get any of that market share which is a sad reality for most.

[MedaR]

Difficulty will always continue to rise as long as there is profit.  If we stop and lose lot's of hash, or stay's the same.... chances are BTC is not going to do so well.  It's always been a arms race and nothing shows it will stop.

Just look at last 9 month chart and you will see how it does increase .... and it will not stop as long as there is profit - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Yes all this have sense, but you can't expects that most of people have same beliefs as you and me.
Many are here only because they want to double money and on small sign of danger they will sell.
This is human nature, panic is something that was exploited so many times in history.

[notlist3d]

Difficulty will always continue to rise as long as there is profit.  If we stop and lose lot's of hash, or stay's the same.... chances are BTC is not going to do so well.  It's always been a arms race and nothing shows it will stop.

Just look at last 9 month chart and you will see how it does increase .... and it will not stop as long as there is profit - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Yes all this have sense, but you can't expects that most of people have same beliefs as you and me.
Many are here only because they want to double money and on small sign of danger they will sell.
This is human nature, panic is something that was exploited so many times in history.

I don't think many are here to double right away.  Most bitcoin investors have  knowlege that it is a long term game.  At one point we could ROI every 3 month's on gear it was great.... now again much slower.

A fool and his money are soon parted... so ones expecting doubling of money soon or selling at slight down turn are not going to be BTC investors long.  And chances are they hold very few of the overall amount of BTC out there.

[fanatic26]

I can assume the majority of mining farms will stay in China and this is it, because they have cheap electricity.
They will flourish in this business and we can expect further development to come from theirs labs.
But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable and will stay there for some time. But price (demand)  dictates tempo of mining.

This would be a very bad assumption. China really doesnt have cheap power at all. The VAST majority of power produced in China is coal based. That means it costs a good $0.07/kwh just to produce the power on average when you factor in the retrieval, transportation, and processing of the coal to make power.

[philipma1957]

I can assume the majority of mining farms will stay in China and this is it, because they have cheap electricity.
They will flourish in this business and we can expect further development to come from theirs labs.
But eventually difficulty will come to one point where further rise will be non profitable and will stay there for some time. But price (demand)  dictates tempo of mining.

This would be a very bad assumption. China really doesnt have cheap power at all. The VAST majority of power produced in China is coal based. That means it costs a good $0.07/kwh just to produce the power on average when you factor in the retrieval, transportation, and processing of the coal to make power.

okay  the facts to back your claim up are on wiki


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China

but they are not enough facts

they also have 282giga watts of hydro power

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_China#Hydropower

Hydropower[edit]
China's installed hydro capacity in 2014 was 282GW[8] up from 172GW in 2009 and constituted about 17.3% of total power generation capacity. In 2014, hydropower generated 1000TWh, which was equivalent to 17.6% of China's total and 85% of primary electricity generation. As China's potential hydropower capacity (estimates range up to 600GW, but currently the technically exploitable and economically feasible capacity is around 500GW[18]) is only about 50-60% utilized, there remains much space for further hydro development. In comparison, hydro utilization in the U.S. currently is 80% and in Norway, Iceland, and other countries it is at over 90%. The country has set a 350GW target for 2020. Due to China's scarcity of fossil fuels and the government's preference for energy independence, hydropower is an attractive option.



that 282 giga watts of hydro power is cheappppppp power!


the world BTC network is 1200ph.

 at .5 watts  per gh  .

you need :

6 watts for 12 gh
60 watts for 120gh
600 watts for 1200gh
6000 watts for 12000gh or 12th
60000 watts for 120000gh or 120th
600000 watts for 1200000gh or 1200 th or 1.2 ph
6000000 watts for 12000000 or 12ph
60000000 watts for 12000000 or 120ph
600000000 watts for 12000000 or 1200 ph


600,000,000 watts 
600,000 kwatts
600 mwatts


.6 gwatts   this is all of the btc net work

so 10x it for worst power efficiency and alt coins  and all the mining in the world is 6 gwatts

and china has 282 gwatts of cheap hydro power.

and china has 800 gwatts of costly coal power.

so the big chinese farms have 6gwatt of 282gwatt at the worst.

reality is I have no idea how much  of the way big 6 giga watts is in china    and I 10 x  the number

so more then likely they have 1 giga watt max and access to 282 gigawatts of hydro.

so while there is tons of coal 70 to 30 percent there is plenty of hydroplants  to use to mine with.

[Longsnowsm]

I think someone else stated this earlier and I don't think it can be over emphasized.  The key is efficiency in what you have today, and offsetting your power consumption with renewables like solar and wind are your best bet long term to be able to continue mining and possibly return something to you.  If your in a place where you pay for your power like most of us do I can assure you one thing is for sure.  Your power bill IS going to go up... Bitcoin may not, but your cost of energy will be going up.  The funny money central bankers are printing like there is no tomorrow.  This will and is devaluing the fiat money and the cost of everything will continue to climb.  Now is the time to invest for the long term in solar and renewables at what will be viewed over the next 10+ years as an incredibly cheap time to get into these technologies.  Drive down your cost today to be profitable tomorrow regardless of the halving.  Tweak and tune your rigs for lean burn, the least power used for the most hashes produced.  Look at your power supplies and see if the numbers add up over the long haul to invest in more efficient gear with an eye on the cost factors I mentioned above.

You cannot predict what is going to happen with Bitcoin.  Govts around the world could suddenly decide to end it, or they could decide to embrace it to choke it to death.  Powerful players in the central banking world could decide to run it up and crash it again... So diversify.  It is high time other currencies here in the cryto world take center stage so that we have options.  More ways to get into and out of the markets.  Make it harder for those that seek to control "money" to control the whole ball of wax.  We have to think and act outside of the box... :-)  No offense to Bitcoin, but at the moment my mining efforts are focused on other coins.  The strangle hold that BTC has on getting funds into and out of the market is very very dangerous.  This has to change if any of this is going to work well over the long term.

[luciann]

I think someone else stated this earlier and I don't think it can be over emphasized.  The key is efficiency in what you have today, and offsetting your power consumption with renewables like solar and wind are your best bet long term to be able to continue mining and possibly return something to you.  If your in a place where you pay for your power like most of us do I can assure you one thing is for sure.  Your power bill IS going to go up... Bitcoin may not, but your cost of energy will be going up.  The funny money central bankers are printing like there is no tomorrow.  This will and is devaluing the fiat money and the cost of everything will continue to climb.  Now is the time to invest for the long term in solar and renewables at what will be viewed over the next 10+ years as an incredibly cheap time to get into these technologies.  Drive down your cost today to be profitable tomorrow regardless of the halving.  Tweak and tune your rigs for lean burn, the least power used for the most hashes produced.  Look at your power supplies and see if the numbers add up over the long haul to invest in more efficient gear with an eye on the cost factors I mentioned above.

You cannot predict what is going to happen with Bitcoin.  Govts around the world could suddenly decide to end it, or they could decide to embrace it to choke it to death.  Powerful players in the central banking world could decide to run it up and crash it again... So diversify.  It is high time other currencies here in the cryto world take center stage so that we have options.  More ways to get into and out of the markets.  Make it harder for those that seek to control "money" to control the whole ball of wax.  We have to think and act outside of the box... :-)  No offense to Bitcoin, but at the moment my mining efforts are focused on other coins.  The strangle hold that BTC has on getting funds into and out of the market is very very dangerous.  This has to change if any of this is going to work well over the long term.

Wow, your block of text could be shorten to a few key sentences lol.

But yeah overall we dont know nor no one does.. but as for you point with "Govts around the world could suddenly decide to end it" thats a big Bologna lol.

[Longsnowsm]

If you don't think that a large nation state or several large nation states couldn't suddenly stand up all the computing power they wanted at tax payer expense and run those servers until Bitcoin difficulty and halving makes it impossible for anyone to make money, and/or to control enough processing power on the network to manipulate it then you are really fooling yourself... Seriously, if they wanted to "end it" they could. 

[Erumara]

If you don't think that a large nation state or several large nation states couldn't suddenly stand up all the computing power they wanted at tax payer expense and run those servers until Bitcoin difficulty and halving makes it impossible for anyone to make money, and/or to control enough processing power on the network to manipulate it then you are really fooling yourself... Seriously, if they wanted to "end it" they could. 

My cousin is great with these conspiracy theories, always worth a laugh.

The current hashrate of the network is 1.17EH, if we were to try and estimate the actual total cost of mining equipment on the BTC network I'm going to take s7's at current price (600USD). To gain 51% of the network would take ~126,958 s7's running full bore at a daily cost of $158,444 @ $0.04USD/kWh. I don't believe for a second any one organization would put ~$76,174,800 (not even including power supplies, power distribution, cooling, floor/rack space, assembly and monitoring/maintenance, you can basically just double that number to get an idea) worth of equipment running at that daily cost for the sole purpose of destroying BTC and ultimately rendering an $80,000,000 investment worthless and throwing all that money for power down the toilet for some imaginary war on crypto-currency.

Are people threatened by crypto-currency? Sure
Are there forces always working to destabilize the system for any number of purposes (almost always personal gain)? Sure

Do I believe any person or organization would be short-sighted enough to spend tens of millions to nuke a technology just to watch it burn? Not so much

As for taking control of the network as to make small miners a thing of the past: Well that's the beauty of crypto-currency, only if a single organization took control of manufacturing the only miners could they squeeze us out; even then how do you stop someone else from making a miner? To reduce profitability for the small miner is to reduce profitability for the medium/large miner. That's how it works. And greed ALWAYS wins. Not to mention the day a single organization takes that kind of control is that day I and the vast majority of Coinheads will wash our hands of BTC, yet again leaving the organization with vast amounts of worthless miners and coins.

Cheers, always love a good conspiracy.

[Longsnowsm]

I guess I am just too old... and seen too much... Roll the clock back to 2000 and all the talk about the speculative bubbles all over the place created by the central banks.  Massive leverage and it was clear they weren't keeping tabs on the money supply... The so called conspiracy NUTS told us of trillions of dollars in derivatives, leverage, and debt and that in order to avoid global default they would have to print trillions and trillions of dollars... We all laughed, nobody would be so stupid, nobody would stand for it to suddenly have the money supply so drastically increased... We of course assumed that they would just let the banks fail, and that there would be a day of reckoning for those who made bad choices, gambled and lost, and put their businesses at risk...

Well in case you haven't been around for the last 15 or so years the so called conspiracy NUTS were dead on the money... They did and ARE printing TRILLIONS of dollars. Yes they are doing exactly what we thought it wouldn't be possible to get away with...  Next those that started to get a clue about the fiat flood started trying to find safe harbors.  They looked to precious metals... Guess what?  The big boys(banks and central banks) figured out how to game that system also.  The market for the metals is so small that it doesn't take a lot of those fiat currency units to boom and bust the market.  They tricked people into accepting paper metals and then gamed the system so that it no longer reflects the risks to the market or any valuation related to anything real... Demand precious metals in your possession and see the disconnect.

Crypto is no different...  If you haven't been part of the history or just haven't been paying any attention it is time to start looking.  This isn't conspiracy, it is fact.   Again if you think the govts are worried about what it would cost to kill any competing currency you missed the part about the ability to get away with printing trillions and nobody seems to care... It won't matter the cost if they decide to kill it. 

Crypto(bitcoin) is here because it is useful to them for the time being.  They have already tiptoed into the market and started playing/gaming the system in 2014 with the big speculative run up in prices... They are in the bubble and bursting them business... 

Does that mean you don't do crypto?  No, I think anything you can do to hedge yourself in this global financial mess is smart.  Precious metals, land, tools, the means of production, crypto, skills... All valuable... But if you think this is all the stuff of fables and conspiracy your gonna be surprised at the events that unfold in the not so distant future...  Negative interest rates are just the beginning.  Bubbles abound... Where this goes is anyones guess. 

So now how does that all fit in the halving and difficulty... We see people sitting here sweating the natural progression of bitcoin and are freaking out.  The point of all of this is diversification is needed to ensure that it is much more difficult to stop cyrpto.  It is already hard to make anything mining with the cost of energy, cost of the latest and greatest rigs to keep the efficiency high enough to make something... An external factor like the banks or govts putting just a little pressure could easily make it completely unprofitable and it won't take long before people head for the exits.  We already see people screaming about the places where energy is cheap or free putting unfair competition in the market and driving a lot of people out, and then the consolidation of power on the network... As far as we know those aren't nation states that are doing that and people are freaking out.

So I love the enthusiasm here, people go from "the sky is falling" due to halving to the flip side "nah, our network and currency is too big to manipulate or fail"... LOL  All funny stuff....

[Erumara]

Indeed sir, well said.

The fact that cryptos were created, arguably, to circumvent the gigantic capitalistic nightmare that is big banking; certainly does not make them immune to those in positions of great power. I spent the last decade of my life working my fingers to the bone learning trade skills and making myself an indispensable employee to any number of companies; and now almost entirely as a result of my government pouring billions of dollars into the oil market, only guaranteeing the eventual crash, I find myself unemployed and struggling to provide for my family along with tens of thousands of others.

If cryptos hold any hope of breaking the vicious cycle of debt-creation and bubble economies, I'm all for it.

My money is on BTC being reasonably stable for the near future, can't help but have a bit of a biased attitude.

Cheers!

[Longsnowsm]

Erumara,  I am with you man!  Been watching this insane boom bust cycle too long, and the stranglehold that these banks and corps have on everything...  I am sorry to hear about your job situation.  It sounds like the Saudi war on fracking is starting to wind down so there may be a rebound coming your way.  It appears a lot of us have been dealing with the bad economic situation up close and personal.  I am thankful to be employed again, but I am not wasting any time diversifying and trying to become more immune to these economic shocks.  Lots more of it is coming unfortunately, so anything we can do to try and make us more sustainable is a good thing... I hope your job situation changes soon.  

Having our fingers in multiple pies to try and be in a better position for the next wave of economic consolidation I think will be key.  Once you have been around the block a few times and finally figure out that the "marketplace" is largely a manipulated and controlled casino it becomes obvious we need other options.  Crypto's are not a primary diversification plan for me because I can see how vulnerable it is, but it is a small step in a new direction that I hope pays off.  

This halving situation is tough.  It is going to be interesting to see how the markets and the coins react.  I am hoping we will see more diversification into other coins to help the market become stronger in the long run.  Greater market access to fiat for other coins and the use of more coins for day to day purchasing power.  Right now we are pretty vulnerable with everything relying on BTC.  I hope that changes.  Maybe halving is that opportunity to make this more of a reality.