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Author Topic: Please discuss whether this is bullish or bearish and why  (Read 2171 times)
bb113
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January 24, 2013, 09:08:56 PM
 #21

If thats all there was to the correction this is very bullish imo
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January 24, 2013, 09:12:30 PM
 #22

It could be, I dont know. I really only look at price in the very short term.

If I had to guess though, I'd say we will see another major crash within the year (down to singles). 
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January 25, 2013, 12:38:58 AM
 #23

It could be, I dont know. I really only look at price in the very short term.

If I had to guess though, I'd say we will see another major crash within the year (down to singles). 

Is this a straight up guess, just a feeling in your gut, or is there a reasoning behind the guess? I'm quite curious why you would think we will see singles again. My guess is we fall back to $12 - 14 before continuing a healthy slow and steady growth.

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January 25, 2013, 12:54:54 AM
 #24

Just a guess, really. I think the price was stagnant for so long around $5 because it was a useful exchange rate.  I also think that the raise into double digits was the defining point of a new speculative bubble.


Again, this is just a personal opinion, and I am far from being an expert.
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January 25, 2013, 02:06:21 AM
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If I had to guess though, I'd say we will see another major crash within the year (down to singles). 

Is this a straight up guess, just a feeling in your gut, or is there a reasoning behind the guess? I'm quite curious why you would think we will see singles again. My guess is we fall back to $12 - 14 before continuing a healthy slow and steady growth.

I see some probability for that scenario, but it depends on fundamentals.
Right now we had some influx of new people learing about bitcoin. If the usefulness of the whole ecosystem can keep pace with that -- i.e. more real world things you can do and buy with bitcoin beyond investment and speculation -- then agreed. Then the rising demand and the limited supply might drive up the rates slowly and continuous.

OTOH, if the new people are disapointed after some time, and there is the next shiny "must have" gadget, then we might see a longer stagnation or even slow downard trend. The hard core bitcoin believers will stay on board of course, and enjoy buying cheap coins.  Wink
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January 25, 2013, 02:24:05 AM
 #26

Just a guess, really. I think the price was stagnant for so long around $5 because it was a useful exchange rate.  I also think that the raise into double digits was the defining point of a new speculative bubble.


Again, this is just a personal opinion, and I am far from being an expert.

Isn't it always just a personal opinion? Anyone who can accurately and consistently predict any market is either astronomically lucky or a next level genius with plenty of free time.

I see some probability for that scenario, but it depends on fundamentals.
Right now we had some influx of new people learing about bitcoin. If the usefulness of the whole ecosystem can keep pace with that -- i.e. more real world things you can do and buy with bitcoin beyond investment and speculation -- then agreed. Then the rising demand and the limited supply might drive up the rates slowly and continuous.

OTOH, if the new people are disapointed after some time, and there is the next shiny "must have" gadget, then we might see a longer stagnation or even slow downard trend. The hard core bitcoin believers will stay on board of course, and enjoy buying cheap coins.  Wink

Good points. Although, I don't think anything shinier will replace bitcoin unless the fundamentals of processors significantly change to the point of being able to easily break bitcoin's cryptography, making a newly redesigned crypto-currency necessary. And in that worst case scenario, it would be a violent ride down. Unless somehow we could redesign bitcoin's cryptography before such processors were built.

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