Regarding the thread "The Great Silk Road Crash of 20** ...?

[twolifeinexile]

Original thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110817.0

What are you guys thinking about this?

My take is that it depends the timing, i believe in the end SR will end, one form or another: first, it is such a target for Governments;second, even though the admin of SR is highly skilled in security matter, he/she may not be business management type, so once business grows so large, his management may elaps and left clue for Goverments to shut down. Third, even they are under tor hidden service, their traffice will grow and may out of portion relatively to other tor site in the end and help reveal their identity.
So my conclusion is that it will happen.

But when? If happens after bitcoin establish itself in outside world a little bit (it is only $120MM market cap, the size is so tiny that even a little acception by mainstream will make it much much bigger, and SR transaction volume insignificant to the overall market ), the "crash" maybe just a correction.

[Rothgar]

You'll see this crash in the year drugs are legal. 

[twolifeinexile]

You'll see this crash in the year drugs are legal. 

That is a long way to go 202*, at least, not sure at that time how drugs are still that relevant to bitcoins

[Scott J]

Since creating that thread my opinion has softened somewhat.

I can see the beginning of Bitcoin hitting the mainstream and the more that time goes on, the less impact SR disappearing will have on the fiat/BTC exchange rate.

That said, there would still be a panic on the markets when it does happen.

[twolifeinexile]

Since creating that thread my opinion has softened somewhat.

I can see the beginning of Bitcoin hitting the mainstream and the more that time goes on, the less impact SR disappearing will have on the fiat/BTC exchange rate.

That said, there would still be a panic on the markets when it does happen.

Beyond the anonymity (or to be precise, pseudonymous), bitcoin indeed have the very good properties as global transaction medium, it actually not depend any third payment processors, it is traceable (by well linking the counter-parties with address) but not revokable, divisible and no counterparty risk. I think even the government have certain incentive to let it be a medium exchange because it makes commerce so easy and secure, of course , government may hate the losing of control, but in the end they may realize it is a long-term viability bitcoin could provide and let it be.