I know, that it has been discussed extensively through the years, who Satoshi is or why he disappeared and I also have my theories about it. Now what made me open this topic, is that I can't understand why somebody could be alive and sane and at the same time miss the opportunity to sell at least some small part at the time when it went over 1000$. He practically has not touched any of his known wallets after his disappearance. Every theory that I find on the net, doesn't fit to some of the publicly known facts, so I am now trying to collect ideas and bring them in order here in my OP.
If you can add a theory that is holding up against all facts, I will add it here and open the discussion.
The assumption of SN having 1 Mio Bitcoins are based on this article:
https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/Why is it important to reveal the Satoshi Nakamoto secret anyway?I know that people argue, that it doesn't matter who SN is, because it is his invention that counts and nothing will change when we know his identity. I don't agree here, because if you understand Bitcoin and take it serious, you can't think, that - a man with a fortune of 1 Mio Bitcoins, who can easily disrupt the entire Bitcoin market, if he starts to sell some bigger amounts from his known wallets - is not important.
If Bitcoin really makes it to a common digital world currency and the price raises with demand, this question "Who is controlling the private keys to this 1 million Bitcoins" will also raise more and more importance, since 1 Mio.
BTC will have even a bigger impact on the market then.
edit:
http://www.coindesk.com/dangerous-satoshi-nakamoto/I will start with the most obvious:
1. Satoshi Nakamoto is deadThis is surely the most obvious reason, why one would not take his chance to become a billionaire. He could have died in an accident or he lost a fight against cancer. He could have been killed or maybe he committed suicide. The fact, that Satoshi said goodbye and gave some keys to Gavin, take out all of the "death by surprise" causes, like an accident and such. It would be a big coincidence, when this two remarkable events (1. Satoshi leaves Bitcoin and 2. he dies in an accident a few days later) happen in a short time frame. So, possible, but unlikely.
Disease
Let's say he had cancer and therefore had the time to say goodbye, what would he do? Leave his project and give the keys for the domains and other stuff and disappear? He would not use his money to spend on technology to save his life or something like that? He wouldn't even be giving the money to some anti cancer charity? I find this very strange and pretty unlikely, that a dying man would react like that. Strongly unlikely.
Suicide
Suicide is one of the theories that at least doesn't fail against the known facts. There is a manifold of reasons, why people kill themselves. If he didn't care about living, than he might not care about what happens with his one million Bitcoins after he death. His project "Bitcoin" could have been important enough for him to make sure, it will continue.
Murder
I must include the fact, that short before Satoshi left the building, Gavin Andresen was invited to an interview by and with the CIA to explain the Bitcoin concept. This can be coincidence or probably be connected with his disappearance. We don't really know, so to me the conspiracy theory about the CIA or some other high tech criminals killing Satoshi Nakamoto still holds up a bit.
Edit:
The question, that needs to be asked regarding the murder theory is: What would be the reason to kill him anyway? They were after his Bitcoins and he refused to give away the private keys? His anti bank invention pissed of some of the "big guys"? Maybe he didn't want to corporate with the agents? Perhaps a "Death by accident" á la Pulp Fiction or while torturing him? Hard to say which of these is more likely. I really don't expect the CIA guys to be that ruthless, but after these corrupt Silk Road agents one never knows. Could be, that Satoshi has been visited by corrupt and ruthless officials, which would make a murder theory more possible and at the same time it would explain how they were able to find Satoshi's identity, which is easy with their super duper high tech surveillance stuff and some help of the bros from the NSA.
This theory would explain,
- why he disappeared
- why his coins kept beeing unmoved (he died without revealing his private keys)
- why he never cared about the hacker who was using his email account for a decent period of time and he never changed the password for it until GMX closed the account.
The hacker story could even be a try of the conspirators to let the public think, that SN is still alive after the actual murder.
EDIT: In this case, they even could have flipped Gavin after the murder and made it look, like Satoshi handed over the control of Bitcoin to him.
This murder theory is the strongest of all in my opinion.
Next common theory is my number 2
2. He is super rich already without his Bitcoins, so he doesn't need to sell them. It is indeed possible, that Bitcoin is the product of a guy who was super rich and for him having "1 Billion more or less" doesn't matter. He could have the ability to create the Bitcoin white paper and start working with developers to evolve his baby and mine 1 Mio Bitcoins and then disappear. One question that would be raised is: Why would he do it?
3. Satoshi lost the private keys of his early walletsThat would be a good reason to not spend a good part of your "now worth alot" coins. It would also be a reason for some people to commit suicide btw.
But: Would this be a reason to give up and give all the keys to somebody else? I doubt it, really...
4. He wanted to stay anonymous.EDIT:
We can all agree, that Satoshi Nakamoto wanted to stay anonymous.
I am not sure if he has ever stated the reason why he did this, so I stick with the most obvious one: He knew that his code provokes the system and it could lead to his arrest or death.
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There are some reasons why he could be ducking after Bitcoin rose to a certain point:
- CIA involved in his invention could have scared him away, because he feared for his life.
- He fears that banks will go after him
- He was too shy/ugly/greedy/whatever to reveal his identity
- He is a famous person and doesn't want to be connected to his invention
- He thought it was to early to get too much publicity and when it became too big he planned his disappearance (He wrote about Bitcoin should be kept small until the network was big and stable enough - link will follow - so this one has a credibility)
- Satoshi Nakamoto could be the nick of an organization, that wanted to stay secret.
All of these points need to be checked with the fact, that none of these early coins have been spent.
- CIA and banks theory can indeed bring someone to even fear touching his Bitcoins, despite of them beeing needed or not. He simply wants to hide, maybe because he has been threatened. He knew, that the CIA might have technologies to reveal his identity at that time, so he could have been too paranoid to even log in to old email and forum accounts etc and also he wouldn't be spending one Satoshi of his known wallets. He didn't even tried to change his GMX password after the hack, so the hacker could continue until GMX closed his email account by themselves. Makes sense.
- all other theories - but the organization one - don't hold too much. There would have been ways to spend some coins, without directly revealing his identity, so simply because you are shy, you would not give all the keys away, never spend your coins and disappear.
The "Satoshi is an organisation" theory is kinda more complex, so I will put it as an extra point later.
EDIT:
Organisation theoryI can imagine some kind of a libertarian group, with a goal to get rid of banks, but why would they give Gavin all their legacy, right at a point where Bitcoin started to get attention and let their pseudonym disappear? Again, fear of the three letter agency? I don't support that.
I would say, that if this group exists, their plan must be running on some long term deeper meta level. Those guys must have been exited, when Bitcoin was as worthy as gold, but they didn't touch it. When the price was going down, not one of them got nervous. They all kept their secret?
What must be their plan? World?
I think, this organisation theory is pretty weak. When that amount of money is at the table (1.2 Billion USD is pretty much), there will be somebody wanting his share. There will be disputes about this and about that and there will be somebody feeling treated unfair and so on. It will end up with a drama story on Gawker.
No, I think Satoshi Nakamoto is one person. A programmer with a vision. Remember when Wikileaks started accepting Bitcoins, Satoshi was not amused. He didn't like the early publicity. He stated, that he wanted Bitcoin to raise slowly to have a secure network. Now lets say he was disappointed with the development. Why shouldn't he use his reputation to make a change instead of turning his back and disappear forever? (oh, I forgot: One must give all the control of the website and stuff to Gavin before disappearing of course and never touch his 1 Billion $ again)
This theory of SN wanting to stay anonymous for whatever reason has too many failures. It would make sense when his life was in danger, like somebody threatening him "Get out of Bitcoin or we kill ya", but does this really sound realistic?
Now if a lot of money is involved, I bet, that there are indeed some people out there who would kill somebody to get it. It is not hard to imagine, that people also kill for 0 day technology or national security. Satoshi could have imagined this also and when he heard the magic letters "CIA" he dropped his nym, gave all the keys to his most trusted buddy Gavin and fled the country, (without ever spending one Satoshi of his fortune?).
Possible, but not my fave.
5. Satoshi wants to wait for the right time, when 1 Bitcoin is worth 2.000/5.000/10.000/100.000/1.000.000 USDCould it be, that we are facing a genious megalomaniac (or an organisation) who is planning to take over the world in the case of Bitcoins super success? Wow! That really sounds like some Matrix like science fiction, doesn't it? But, let's say he (or they) is/are crazy enough to resist all temptations of selling his Bitcoins until he reached his magic goal, just for the plain moniez and/or power. He is genius and crazy enough to believe, that Bitcoin will be worth a lot more than 1000$ and this at a time when it was worth 0$ actually. At a price of 1000$ he doesn't sell, because he believes it will raise a lot higher. Even when the price falls he is still confident and holds and never moves a Satoshi to not scare the public, because "when he moves a coin, there will be a panic sell" (I don't buy that "panic sell" theory anyway. Why would him selling a few coins indicate, that he doesn't trust Bitcoin anymore? Sure, if he would dump all at once, I agree, that this would be resulting in a panic sell, but simply selling a few coins or buying some stuff with it would certainly not mean more but "Satoshi is back!"
If Gavin was telling us the truth about the CIA meeting being nothing more than some interview about Bitcoin tech, than why this megalomaniac Satoshi, would disappear just a short time after? OK, maybe he had some paranoid or psychosis tendencies and feared, that the CIA will reveal his evil plan and kill him and destroy Bitcoin. Who knows....
6. He is an idealist and doesn't care about getting rich, but about helping with decentralizing money.Probably the most positive theory. I will get into this one later in more detail.
EDIT:
This theory is about one rich, Bruce Wayne type-o-guy. A rich programmer with a plan to help the world to get rid of banksters. He creates his code and because he doesn't want to be associated with it, he chooses to do so with a nickname. He wanted to use Batman, but it was already in use, so he chooses Satoshi Nakamoto instead.
If he wanted Bitcoin to get big, why he leaves his project at a point where it actually goes big? Why mining a million Bitcoins and leave them untouched instead of using it for his project? Why let the hackers hack his email and do nothing against it for months? This all makes no sense!
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I will go deeper into this and other questions and theories later. Meanwhile, if you have a good and rational theory about why SN didn't spend a Satoshi, don't hesitate to write it down here. I will add new ideas to my OP with a reference from time to time.
Edit 2. of March 2016: Since Mr. Craig Wright made his false claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto and Gavin Andresen believes him, I back up the "Satoshi Nakamoto is dead theory (chapter: murder)" more than ever!
