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Author Topic: Why the bitcoin won't crash.  (Read 1919 times)
keten
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June 09, 2011, 03:59:40 AM
 #1

A combination of factors makes the bitcoin currency very crash resistant.

A crash would occur under a mass sell out. Considering a very significant event that undermines the security of the bitcoin system would have to occur for a mass sell out to be rationally justifiable, such as a government or other powerful group/individual spends massive resources to break the system, a hacking or some form of take down on mtgox occurs that involves many losing their bitcoins, or some entity creates a quantum computer capable of breaking the SHA256 encryption in reasonable time and starts targeting bitcoin accounts, I think it's safe to say with a very high probability (at least at the current state of events) that a mass sell out would occur due to snowballing speculation/panic selling combined with or initiated by large investors getting their bitcoins out.

Such a mass sellout will happen from time to time due to natural market movements. However any massively significant crash, such as going from 30$/bitcoin to <1$/bitcoin or even <5$/bitcoin is very unlikely because of one thing... the community.

In order for the bitcoin to crest and crash the market would have to be overtaken by speculative investors. And by overtaken I mean a significant majority of all bitcoins must lay in the hands of these speculative investors. Only then will the sell rate be unsustainable and have no buyers to keep up with it. However, due to the bitcoin architecture, the strongest currently are early adopters. Many of these people have a vested interest not in just making a quick buck, but to see the bitcoin be adopted globally. At the current moment, with these people in control, the bitcoin will not crash. There isn't enough market initiative sufficient to make it crash.

This means we have NOT REACHED the start of a bitcoin bubble as of yet. It will happen, as the bitcoin gets more popular, and the balance of power shifts over to more powerful investors, that market activity will get even more extreme than is now. But whether or not that balance of power shift that would allow a massively significant crash to occur... could even occur, is debatable.

The graph on http://buttcoin.org/im-going-to-post-this-update-so-you-can-follow-along-at-home is actually pretty accurate. The thing is the "mean" for the "return to the mean" phase has not been reached, and you can help that mean be as high as possible by doing the following.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
1) For people with large vested interests in bitcoins: you should be aware that you have a lot of power on the market. Be aware of what you do, as any large actions could come back to bite you in the ass. But also be aware certain large actions could be necessary to save your investment.

2) For businesses: make using bitcoins to purchase things attractive. You could aim for simply breaking even or even selling at a slight loss based on the current market value of the bitcoin. Because there is potential for the bitcoin to rise in value significantly, you would be simultaneously offering customers prices that can't be beat, but also making a large profit as bitcoins rise in value. The only way this is sustainable is because bitcoin customers are growing exponentially. The bitcoin is increasing in value due to its inherent ponzi-scheme-esque exponential growth values. The only difference is that at the end (when the bitcoin is largely accepted and exponential growth becomes unsustainable) instead of a crash, the value stabilizes. 

3) For everyone: you don't need to have a single bitcent in your account for the purpose of hoarding to do this. Simply when you need to buy something, see if it's for sale using bitcoins. Then buy however many bitcoins you need and spend it on that item. If buisnesses follow what I suggested above, it would be the best deal your money could buy anyways! Or separate your investment account from your account for spending power. I think hoarding is a very proper thing to do at the moment, but realize if you spend bitcoins (even if you just buy them and spend them immediately), you're helping raise the eventual "mean" that is referenced in the above graph. The bitcoin is a potentially very profitable environment for dealers, as you can sell a $10 item now and a month later, with raised bitcoin prices, have effectively sold that item for $20,$40,$100 or more. By buying items you're raising demand for buisness, and by raising demand for buisness, you're helping the bitcoin become globally accepted.
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June 09, 2011, 04:22:26 AM
 #2

Nice essay.  My philosophy has been to sell/spend 50% of my mining proceeds.  That way, I'm not hoarding and driving the price up nor dumping and driving it down.  I've covered my equipment investment costs but still have some coins should Bitcoin continue to do well.  I do kinda regret all those coins I sold for less than a buck though.  Cry

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June 09, 2011, 04:38:22 AM
 #3

Those coins you sold for less than a buck probably convinced enough people that bitcoin was a real currency to raise the value.

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July 29, 2018, 05:23:18 AM
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A combination of factors makes the bitcoin currency very crash resistant.

A crash would occur under a mass sell out. Considering a very significant event that undermines the security of the bitcoin system would have to occur for a mass sell out to be rationally justifiable, such as a government or other powerful group/individual spends massive resources to break the system, a hacking or some form of take down on mtgox occurs that involves many losing their bitcoins, or some entity creates a quantum computer capable of breaking the SHA256 encryption in reasonable time and starts targeting bitcoin accounts, I think it's safe to say with a very high probability (at least at the current state of events) that a mass sell out would occur due to snowballing speculation/panic selling combined with or initiated by large investors getting their bitcoins out.

Such a mass sellout will happen from time to time due to natural market movements. However any massively significant crash, such as going from 30$/bitcoin to <1$/bitcoin or even <5$/bitcoin is very unlikely because of one thing... the community.

In order for the bitcoin to crest and crash the market would have to be overtaken by speculative investors. And by overtaken I mean a significant majority of all bitcoins must lay in the hands of these speculative investors. Only then will the sell rate be unsustainable and have no buyers to keep up with it. However, due to the bitcoin architecture, the strongest currently are early adopters. Many of these people have a vested interest not in just making a quick buck, but to see the bitcoin be adopted globally. At the current moment, with these people in control, the bitcoin will not crash. There isn't enough market initiative sufficient to make it crash.

This means we have NOT REACHED the start of a bitcoin bubble as of yet. It will happen, as the bitcoin gets more popular, and the balance of power shifts over to more powerful investors, that market activity will get even more extreme than is now. But whether or not that balance of power shift that would allow a massively significant crash to occur... could even occur, is debatable.

The graph on http://buttcoin.org/im-going-to-post-this-update-so-you-can-follow-along-at-home is actually pretty accurate. The thing is the "mean" for the "return to the mean" phase has not been reached, and you can help that mean be as high as possible by doing the following.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
1) For people with large vested interests in bitcoins: you should be aware that you have a lot of power on the market. Be aware of what you do, as any large actions could come back to bite you in the ass. But also be aware certain large actions could be necessary to save your investment.

2) For businesses: make using bitcoins to purchase things attractive. You could aim for simply breaking even or even selling at a slight loss based on the current market value of the bitcoin. Because there is potential for the bitcoin to rise in value significantly, you would be simultaneously offering customers prices that can't be beat, but also making a large profit as bitcoins rise in value. The only way this is sustainable is because bitcoin customers are growing exponentially. The bitcoin is increasing in value due to its inherent ponzi-scheme-esque exponential growth values. The only difference is that at the end (when the bitcoin is largely accepted and exponential growth becomes unsustainable) instead of a crash, the value stabilizes. 

3) For everyone: you don't need to have a single bitcent in your account for the purpose of hoarding to do this. Simply when you need to buy something, see if it's for sale using bitcoins. Then buy however many bitcoins you need and spend it on that item. If buisnesses follow what I suggested above, it would be the best deal your money could buy anyways! Or separate your investment account from your account for spending power. I think hoarding is a very proper thing to do at the moment, but realize if you spend bitcoins (even if you just buy them and spend them immediately), you're helping raise the eventual "mean" that is referenced in the above graph. The bitcoin is a potentially very profitable environment for dealers, as you can sell a $10 item now and a month later, with raised bitcoin prices, have effectively sold that item for $20,$40,$100 or more. By buying items you're raising demand for buisness, and by raising demand for buisness, you're helping the bitcoin become globally accepted.


Why the bitcoin won't crash because of it's demand. The demand of bitcoin affect the bitcoin's life so the bitcoin won't be crash. The bitcoin is very powerful because they can change any one's life just using and working here on bitcoin. The earnings of bitcoin cause the people to use it so the demand of bitcoin are continuously increasing. That's why the bitcoin won't be crash.
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July 29, 2018, 06:21:05 AM
 #5

I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

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July 29, 2018, 06:24:19 AM
 #6

I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

I think 4,000,000 Bitcoins which were purchased before 2011 will be sold.
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July 29, 2018, 06:26:50 AM
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I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

Yep, people like them won't make Bitcoin go down since they really invested big enough. And just imagine that only few people know about Bitcoin. What if everyone will notice it? Just imagine.

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altcoin4u
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July 29, 2018, 02:14:39 PM
 #8

A combination of factors makes the bitcoin currency very crash resistant.

A crash would occur under a mass sell out. Considering a very significant event that undermines the security of the bitcoin system would have to occur for a mass sell out to be rationally justifiable, such as a government or other powerful group/individual spends massive resources to break the system, a hacking or some form of take down on mtgox occurs that involves many losing their bitcoins, or some entity creates a quantum computer capable of breaking the SHA256 encryption in reasonable time and starts targeting bitcoin accounts, I think it's safe to say with a very high probability (at least at the current state of events) that a mass sell out would occur due to snowballing speculation/panic selling combined with or initiated by large investors getting their bitcoins out.

Such a mass sellout will happen from time to time due to natural market movements. However any massively significant crash, such as going from 30$/bitcoin to <1$/bitcoin or even <5$/bitcoin is very unlikely because of one thing... the community.

In order for the bitcoin to crest and crash the market would have to be overtaken by speculative investors. And by overtaken I mean a significant majority of all bitcoins must lay in the hands of these speculative investors. Only then will the sell rate be unsustainable and have no buyers to keep up with it. However, due to the bitcoin architecture, the strongest currently are early adopters. Many of these people have a vested interest not in just making a quick buck, but to see the bitcoin be adopted globally. At the current moment, with these people in control, the bitcoin will not crash. There isn't enough market initiative sufficient to make it crash.

This means we have NOT REACHED the start of a bitcoin bubble as of yet. It will happen, as the bitcoin gets more popular, and the balance of power shifts over to more powerful investors, that market activity will get even more extreme than is now. But whether or not that balance of power shift that would allow a massively significant crash to occur... could even occur, is debatable.

The graph on http://buttcoin.org/im-going-to-post-this-update-so-you-can-follow-along-at-home is actually pretty accurate. The thing is the "mean" for the "return to the mean" phase has not been reached, and you can help that mean be as high as possible by doing the following.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
1) For people with large vested interests in bitcoins: you should be aware that you have a lot of power on the market. Be aware of what you do, as any large actions could come back to bite you in the ass. But also be aware certain large actions could be necessary to save your investment.

2) For businesses: make using bitcoins to purchase things attractive. You could aim for simply breaking even or even selling at a slight loss based on the current market value of the bitcoin. Because there is potential for the bitcoin to rise in value significantly, you would be simultaneously offering customers prices that can't be beat, but also making a large profit as bitcoins rise in value. The only way this is sustainable is because bitcoin customers are growing exponentially. The bitcoin is increasing in value due to its inherent ponzi-scheme-esque exponential growth values. The only difference is that at the end (when the bitcoin is largely accepted and exponential growth becomes unsustainable) instead of a crash, the value stabilizes. 

3) For everyone: you don't need to have a single bitcent in your account for the purpose of hoarding to do this. Simply when you need to buy something, see if it's for sale using bitcoins. Then buy however many bitcoins you need and spend it on that item. If buisnesses follow what I suggested above, it would be the best deal your money could buy anyways! Or separate your investment account from your account for spending power. I think hoarding is a very proper thing to do at the moment, but realize if you spend bitcoins (even if you just buy them and spend them immediately), you're helping raise the eventual "mean" that is referenced in the above graph. The bitcoin is a potentially very profitable environment for dealers, as you can sell a $10 item now and a month later, with raised bitcoin prices, have effectively sold that item for $20,$40,$100 or more. By buying items you're raising demand for buisness, and by raising demand for buisness, you're helping the bitcoin become globally accepted.
I can agree that price is very manipulative and unstable depending on many things, but the Bitcoin as a currency and investing outside will not fail because it is too widely spread and too many people are interested in it.

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July 29, 2018, 02:23:04 PM
 #9

I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

Yep, people like them won't make Bitcoin go down since they really invested big enough. And just imagine that only few people know about Bitcoin. What if everyone will notice it? Just imagine.
Big whales really make bitcoin go down, for them to harvest bitcoin on the panic sellers, for them to earn big profit when the price of bitcoin increase. But the dropping of bitcoin does not mean its going to die. Bitcoin wont crash for now because bitcoin dont have competitor. I said now because as you can see, the technology now is upgrading fast, as the technology upgrades, many opportunity will come, so its possible that bitcoin will be bright or not, because someone might create bitcoin competitor.

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July 29, 2018, 06:20:59 PM
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They chose Bitcoin a while back (as have most people) because they view it as a true store of value. Digital gold. This has proven true thus far.
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July 29, 2018, 06:47:51 PM
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i think that the information you have wrote is really useful and i agree that it won't crash so easily. in the nearest future the price will grow and we will see changes soon. i wish to admit that i am waiting for them

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July 29, 2018, 07:38:30 PM
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Bitcoin Platform- is a decentralized system which involves a blockchain and consists of several smart-contracts in the perimeter of the block chain and its own crypto currency, And the platform is a system product created by a consortium of the most powerful, competent, and experienced logistic companies and organizations all over the world.

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July 30, 2018, 12:44:22 PM
 #13

I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

I think 4,000,000 Bitcoins which were purchased before 2011 will be sold.
i would agree. they should me sold but it all depends on the market

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July 30, 2018, 01:01:40 PM
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 I believe we have sufficient correction already. After touching the side-wards support line, BTC has a good chance to move into 9,000+ level.
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July 30, 2018, 01:08:39 PM
 #15

I don't think big holders (whales) let gonna crash bitcoins. They are the major party currently controls the bitcoin price.

I think 4,000,000 Bitcoins which were purchased before 2011 will be sold.
i would agree. they should me sold but it all depends on the market

 Bitcoin is the most stable among the ALT coin as posted in the market, the fundamentals, market structure, the blockchain technology secured with the most advanced system, it is decentralized and number one among crypto coin as posted in the market. It hard to believe that Bitcoin will crash even with a lot of issues confronted on everyday trading. Bitcoin wont crash because of the support system.

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July 30, 2018, 01:48:47 PM
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bitcoin wont crash because many people and investors believe in bitcoin. Bitcoin is the foundation of all cyryptocurrencies. so i think bitcoin wont crash neither left out.
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July 30, 2018, 01:55:43 PM
 #17

Head of international economist Deutsche Bank Torsten Slok revealed, several risks that will be faced in the next year are bitcoin crashes, high inflation, and geopolitics of North Korea.

This year, bitcoin became a phenomenon. Reinforcement of this virtual currency reaches 1,000 percent since the beginning of the year with a value that strengthens up to thousands of US dollars in just a matter of hours. Because sangking many bitcoin demand then bitcoin will not cras

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August 01, 2018, 01:00:07 PM
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Bitcoin will be used as fiat in future in bulk amount, so the possibilities of getting crash will be not easy.
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August 01, 2018, 01:01:43 PM
 #19

People from all over the globe invested and currently investing in bitcoin. So it can be said that it won't crash.
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August 01, 2018, 01:02:42 PM
 #20

I don't think btc will crash very soon or will crash one day.
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