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Author Topic: A correction is happening.  (Read 2510 times)
twolifeinexile
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January 24, 2013, 08:03:15 PM
 #1

Price touched 19.2~ and now come back to 16, 20% in one day! What a ride !
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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January 24, 2013, 08:06:55 PM
 #2

16.71
13%.
CurbsideProphet
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January 24, 2013, 08:08:59 PM
 #3

Just goes to show how incredibly volatile the market still is despite the relative stability over the past few months.  We're still very much in the "wild west" period, which is fun but also why you never put down more than you're willing to lose and be able to sleep at night. 

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twolifeinexile
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January 24, 2013, 08:15:21 PM
 #4

16.71
13%.
I see 16.2~ for a moment.
jwzguy
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January 24, 2013, 08:16:54 PM
 #5

Well that...de-escalated quickly.
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January 24, 2013, 08:21:19 PM
 #6

price stablized at ~13 for a while then rocketed to ~19 and now i bet it gets cut in the middle to ~16

isn't that similar to what happened last time there was a long sideways period?
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January 24, 2013, 08:23:29 PM
 #7

It was about time.
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January 24, 2013, 08:25:49 PM
 #8

Watching mtgox live now is more exciting than live sports.

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January 24, 2013, 08:26:50 PM
 #9

I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
twolifeinexile
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January 24, 2013, 08:29:36 PM
 #10

16.00 is happening
CurbsideProphet
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January 24, 2013, 08:34:37 PM
 #11

I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.


You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?  It seems more likely there are big players here that pumped and dumped hoping to lure in more with that very psychology.  In all fairness, my short-term targets have been far off so what the heck do I know  Grin

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January 24, 2013, 08:36:47 PM
 #12

POP!

http://mises.org/daily/3229
BTC:1PEyEKyVZgUvV4moXvCD5rQN21QETGPpLc
casascius
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January 24, 2013, 08:40:55 PM
 #13

You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper or hardware wallets instead.
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January 24, 2013, 08:42:30 PM
 #14

16.71
13%.
I see 16.2~ for a moment.

I see 15.75
18%
CurbsideProphet
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January 24, 2013, 08:43:07 PM
 #15

You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.

Interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  

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January 24, 2013, 08:44:45 PM
 #16

You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.
I actually think you're right.I am not sure if anyone has actually looked at the Gox via live but some of the money you saw during the trading was huge.The money IS still there irregardless of if someone sells or not.What an individual might be trying to do is Sell while it was high effect the market with a huge dump then buy BTC at a lower price while still profiting.

bb113
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January 24, 2013, 08:45:31 PM
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Quote
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.


You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.

Interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  


Whether on purpose or not this is definitely occurring:
Quote
Variable ratio schedule (VR) – a reinforcement schedule in which the number of responses necessary to produce reinforcement varies from trial to trial. A VR schedule of VR10 means that if one averaged the number of reinforcers, on the average every tenth desired response was reinforced.

    Lab example: VR4" = first pellet delivered on 2 bar presses, second pellet delivered on 6 bar presses, third pellet 4 bar presses (2 + 6 + 4 = 12; 12/3= 4 bar presses to receive pellet).
    Real-world example: slot machines (because, though the probability of hitting the jackpot is constant, the number of lever presses needed to hit the jackpot is variable).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_of_reinforcement#Schedules
Rassah
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January 24, 2013, 08:46:57 PM
 #18

Glad it came back down. I'd rather have it be where it's supposed to, than hovering around in a possible bubble state, no one knowing when it will pop.

EuroTrash
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January 24, 2013, 08:52:52 PM
 #19

Naj. Look at the volume. More than two millions USD moved in a day if I read it right. Wow. I like to believe that this market has drawn the attention of one financial wolf whose pockets are deep enough. To play the pump and dump game at such scale.

Damn I'm out of popcorn. And I wish I had money sitting on Gox.
:-)

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January 24, 2013, 08:56:59 PM
 #20

You also need to pay attention to the depth to tell if it's a correction or volatility.  Right now it would only take 20,000 BTC sold to go back to 19.  Way more than that was bought on the ride up of the past few days.  Depth chart looks like a half-pipe now, which means it doesn't take a lot of money or bitcoins to get wild swings without serious support or resistance.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html
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