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Author Topic: 17 is the new 12  (Read 2461 times)
kokojie
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January 25, 2013, 02:45:16 PM
 #1

I believe 17 has became the new 12, price won't deviate much from 17 (+-2) and will stabilize at this level for a while.

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January 25, 2013, 02:51:10 PM
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One thing I've learned about the Bitcoin price is that it's hard to predict.

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January 25, 2013, 03:08:59 PM
 #3

I believe 17 has became the new 12, price won't deviate much from 17 (+-2) and will stabilize at this level for a while.
I would tend to agree except when ASIC's hits (and it will some day Smiley ) but until then this is a good stopping point.  It is almost like yesterday was a stress test of the system to see how much the market could handle, just an idea.

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January 25, 2013, 03:59:24 PM
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Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12.  We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it.  They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most.
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January 25, 2013, 05:19:06 PM
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Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12.  We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it.  They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most.

BTC must flow from weak hands to strong hands before higher prices can be sustained.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 25, 2013, 05:41:36 PM
 #6

Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12.  We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it.  They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most.

BTC must flow from weak hands to strong hands before higher prices can be sustained.
I keep hearing this 'weak to strong hands' thing.  Where does it come from?  Does it mean if I bought wherever I bought low and had weak hands but subsequently don't bother trading it does that mean my hands are getting stronger otherwise I wouldn't be able to hold onto them at higher prices?  On first impression it seems to be a flawed metaphor appearing to be favoured by those with a 'dog-eat-dog' the survival-of-the-fittest, no-mercy-on-the-losers world-view.  Am I close to the mark?

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notme
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January 25, 2013, 05:44:43 PM
 #7

Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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zby
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January 25, 2013, 05:58:32 PM
 #8

Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.

You sound like a sect.

Somehow I don't feel weak for selling in 2011
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January 25, 2013, 06:00:33 PM
 #9

Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.
Thanks notme, I think I understand a bit better though the 'bull gore pig' is lost on me (and lost on google too)!
Yet somehow still the 'strong' idea, like the 'courage' idea in the other thread just don't sit right with me.  In the OP of that one is the line 'You will need your courage far more than it will need your faith'.  But I think a simple belief that there's a bloody good chance Bitcoin will have a significant role in the future of world finance means no courage or determination or strength is needed.  People keep telling me I'm brave in holding onto my Bitcoin as it gets so high or as it plummets so deep (not that I've had to yet).

Of course I enjoy a bit of excitement as I realise how much better off I am than had I left it in pounds but if and when it goes below what it was last week or even what I paid for it it still don't feel I can claim credit for being strong or brave.  It's like someone telling me I'm brave not believing in god.  It's really easy.  It's not like I even have a choice.  It's just what I believe and I act accordingly.

All I can do is to try and remain open to arguments that I may be wrong in the fundamentals that underlie my belief, and if I'm persuaded by any or enough of them then my belief will change but courage?  strength? Nah, not me Smiley

...And those who do sell?  Maybe they're not weak either.  They just have different beliefs and act accordingly.

Please disregard Litecoin and Zcash badges to the left. I have just gathered they are an April fool's joke!
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January 25, 2013, 06:08:22 PM
 #10

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Google should know that one.

My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins.  Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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January 25, 2013, 07:16:47 PM
 #11

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Google should know that one.

My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins.  Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.
On that we are agreed Smiley

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January 25, 2013, 07:18:04 PM
 #12

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

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January 25, 2013, 07:46:01 PM
 #13

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. 

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January 25, 2013, 07:51:20 PM
 #14

I don't see it, most of the liquidity is gone, I predict large price swings ahead.

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January 25, 2013, 07:54:45 PM
 #15

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. 



It's not about selling.... it's about selling in the current situation.

Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.

Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin.

It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig.

You sound like a sect.

Somehow I don't feel weak for selling in 2011

I don't think you are weak for selling in 2011, the situation was quite different then.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Jutarul
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January 25, 2013, 07:58:27 PM
 #16

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. 
A strong hand is described by a low selling pressure - which translates into a strong bargaining position. Price is rather irrelevant - it's more about the economic freedom to choose.

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January 25, 2013, 08:06:07 PM
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Right, it's a short term profits vs long term investor (or consumer) thing... nothing to do with physical strength or courage.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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January 25, 2013, 08:12:54 PM
 #18

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist.  
A strong hand is described by a low selling pressure - which translates into a strong bargaining position. Price is rather irrelevant - it's more about the economic freedom to choose.

Exactly.  The actual price doesn't matter.  It is the sentiment of the investor.

Example of a weak hand.  Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15.  The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy.  Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy).  They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation.  This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation).  This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit.  They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them.  Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and the downside risk is large.

Example of a strong hand.  Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of several months.  The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant.  While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years.  They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips".  The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless.  This hypothetical investor has a strong hand.  They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis.  

Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands then strong hands to weak hands. While an individual investor with a weak hand can get lucky "just happened to buy at the right time" in the long run on average they will transfer their wealth to those with stronger hands.

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January 25, 2013, 08:22:43 PM
 #19

Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained.

Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands.

Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what.

That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist.  
A strong hand is described by a low selling pressure - which translates into a strong bargaining position. Price is rather irrelevant - it's more about the economic freedom to choose.

Exactly.  The actual price doesn't matter.  It is the sentiment of the investor.

Example of a weak shand.  Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15.  The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy.  Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy).  They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation.  This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation).  This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit.  They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them.  Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction.

Example of a strong hand.  Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months.  The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant.  While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years.  They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips".  The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless.  This hypothetical investor has a strong hand.  They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis.  

Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands.



Wow, very well said!
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January 25, 2013, 08:32:34 PM
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I would follow deathandtaxes on twitter

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