You know what happened last time when money supply got slashed in half

[LiteCoinGuy]

[--Encrypted--]

well back then bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency for that matter) is still easy to get because of the low difficulty. plus not many people knew about it. now things are much different.
though it seems the price did raise a month later.

[Amph]

we should remember that pumping from $10 to whatever was the price back then it is more easy than pumping from 400+ to an even higher value

but i agree that there will be an increase

[SFR10]

Nice graph. It's true and that's the most likely outcome (only one) when this happens again in few months. The moment supply comes harder, price surely goes higher since demand keeps on coming in higher numbers most of the time so looking forward to July when this happens. If you could put a wider range of back in 2012, it could be better to see how was the longer range back then, after the halving.

[BTCat]

Nice bulltrap 

[BellaBitBit]

Interesting chart and it could rinse and repeat but there are new factors in play now than before - increased awareness, more hype, and bigger price.  Can't wait to see what happens!

[Denker]

Yes last time there was an increase over 5 months after the halving.Something close to $200 I believe.
This time I would already be happy with an increase of x2. I doubt we will see more this year.

[gentlemand]

So nothing before and nothing for several months after? Sounds about right to me.

[Junko]

Yeah, I remember last halving weeks before and after people were like, "WTF? Why we not gone to moon yet?" And all the bears were lol'ing while spreading their usual fud. But then a few more weeks later and we saw... boom goes the dynamite.

[tobacco123]

There are just too many factors that will affect the price other than reward halving.

Things like the increased population of bitcoiners, blocksize debate, government regulations, competing alt coins (Ethereum??)... All these will come in play and affect the price. Many of these were not in existence around the last halving...

[Za1n]

Yes, and if you expand the first chart to include a couple of more months we get an even better idea of what to expect:





We haven't been back to $12 since. And if I would have expanded even further out to November 2013, we all know what happened then.

[Za1n]

I'll include it anyway for good measure. I even drew the block 210,000 line this time to put this in perspective.

[chennan]

I mean in theory this would be correct... but a lot of factors are at play now than what was happening back in 2012.  There was no arguments about block sizes, fungibility concerns, decisions to hard fork to this or that, Silk Road was still on the rise, etc. etc. ... Probably in all reality there will be a couple of speculative pumps here and there, but nothing to the degree of what's being insinuated on these graphs.

For one thing, there still has to be a continuous flow of "fresh money" that hasn't already entered the crypto-sphere yet.  Maybe if Wall St officially picks up Bitcoin for trading, there will be that fresh flow of new money to come into play. Who knows...

Plus, there is always the possibility of big time miners being forced to shut down.  There isn't anything guaranteed for these guys in terms of price increases. Since they are running these miners for profit, they can always be forced to shut down if the price doesn't rise quickly enough in order to pay bills for the electricity and hardware costs.