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Author Topic: Prediction markets in Bitcoin  (Read 2607 times)
Giulio Prisco
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January 27, 2013, 09:57:49 AM
 #1

Is there a prediction market in Bitcoin?

I found this http://betsofbitco.in/ - other examples?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
http://ideosphere.com/ - one of the oldest implementations of prediction markets, developed in the Stone Age of the Internet
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Ukigo
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January 27, 2013, 12:10:48 PM
 #2

bitbet.us
though be carefull with this one Huh
it's operator has quite suspicious reputation.

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Meni Rosenfeld
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January 27, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
 #3

http://betsofbitco.in/ and bitbet.us are not prediction markets.

In a real prediction market, your profit from betting and holding depends only on current price and the event outcome, not on future bets.

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Giulio Prisco
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January 28, 2013, 07:03:37 AM
 #4

http://betsofbitco.in/ and bitbet.us are not prediction markets.
In a real prediction market, your profit from betting and holding depends only on current price and the event outcome, not on future bets.

Not even on the event outcome, because you can buy and sell at any moment before the event outcome is known. For example you can buy "X will become US president in 2016" and sell at a profit when others want to buy (that is, when the popularity of X rises).

So there is no real prediction market in BTC? Do you guys think it would be a good idea to make one?
Ukigo
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January 28, 2013, 07:28:48 AM
 #5

It's a good idea.
But only if you can implement trustless prediction market in BTC.
Of course, if you wish your new PM to become popular and liquid.
 

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Giulio Prisco
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January 28, 2013, 08:00:54 AM
 #6

Thanks Ukigo. I assume that by "trustless" you mean that buyers and sellers don't have to trust each other.

This can be solved by automatic transactions: you offer to buy "X becomes US president in 2016" at 1BTC and as soon as there is a matching sell order the transaction takes place automatically and the money (minus a house commission of 1% or less) goes from your wallet to the seller's wallet.

Of course users still have to trust the operator. I don't see an evident solution to that besides building a good reputation.
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January 28, 2013, 08:46:27 AM
 #7

Unfortunately, in BTC world "building good reputation" often precedes the very sad
 event, that is the operator runs away
 with people's coins (

Because of this, my point was that
PM's operator might not touch clients' money.

Sure, this is a very hard task to implement,
BUT this is the way to go, IMHO.
So far nobody have found a solution.

Also there were other threads about PM and
 betting in general on the forums.
Search for it, if you wish.

UPD.
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=10011.0;all

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=112698.0

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
Astro
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January 28, 2013, 08:52:20 AM
 #8

Can someone just make an Intrade clone already? 
Ukigo
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January 28, 2013, 08:57:02 AM
 #9

Maybe someday i will, but only if
 i'll fail with "paper betting + oracle bot"
 solution. )


"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
TimJBenham
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February 16, 2013, 09:24:21 AM
 #10

Unfortunately, in BTC world "building good reputation" often precedes the very sad
 event, that is the operator runs away
 with people's coins (

Because of this, my point was that
PM's operator might not touch clients' money.

Someone has to be able to touch it for it to get from losers to winners. All the current btc books rely on trusting the site operator. You could conceivably have some 3rd party in that role but that just transfers the trust problem.

You are a warlord in the outskirts of the known world struggling to establish a kingdom in the wild lands.
Ukigo
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February 16, 2013, 09:53:16 AM
 #11

You can't control anonymous PM's operator
 soul's quality/

But you can "paper bet" :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94355.0

Just create you Private Betting Club Wink


"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
MPOE-PR
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February 16, 2013, 11:57:52 AM
 #12

http://betsofbitco.in/ and bitbet.us are not prediction markets.

In a real prediction market, your profit from betting and holding depends only on current price and the event outcome, not on future bets.

Since willful idiots/scammers a la Rosenfeld keep repeating this otherwise false claim, here's a little explanation of how betting actually works and why BitBet is better than the "exchange" style (used by like Intrade) and the line style (used by most bookies) etc: Let's understand mutual betting together.

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TimJBenham
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February 16, 2013, 02:18:39 PM
 #13

http://betsofbitco.in/ and bitbet.us are not prediction markets.

In a real prediction market, your profit from betting and holding depends only on current price and the event outcome, not on future bets.

Since willful idiots/scammers a la Rosenfeld keep repeating this otherwise false claim, here's a little explanation of how betting actually works and why BitBet is better than the "exchange" style (used by like Intrade) and the line style (used by most bookies) etc: Let's understand mutual betting together.

That's the worst tendentious bullshit I have read on the subject. Not knowing the odds you are betting at is unambigously worse than knowing. I have been wagering for decades and pari mutuel is for the sort of degenerate who bets on every race. All serious gamblers prefer fixed odds. The operator loves parimutuel because he takes no risk whatever and it is dead simple to manage.

Bitbet doesn't even disclose how the pool is divided in its FAQ! Even nasty government run betting pools diclose this and moreover tell you the current marginal odds. Bitbet doesn't do that either.

Thanks for your post. It was very informative. It infomed me that you and Bitbet are not to be trusted.

You are a warlord in the outskirts of the known world struggling to establish a kingdom in the wild lands.
Ukigo
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February 16, 2013, 03:23:48 PM
 #14

Calm down, man ! )
that was MPOE-PR.
At least she has nice teets (maybe)... Wink

"...Enemies are everywhere ! Angka is all rage ! Be a good soldiers, blow everything... " <-- Pol Pot (C)
MPOE-PR
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February 16, 2013, 06:28:04 PM
 #15

http://betsofbitco.in/ and bitbet.us are not prediction markets.

In a real prediction market, your profit from betting and holding depends only on current price and the event outcome, not on future bets.

Since willful idiots/scammers a la Rosenfeld keep repeating this otherwise false claim, here's a little explanation of how betting actually works and why BitBet is better than the "exchange" style (used by like Intrade) and the line style (used by most bookies) etc: Let's understand mutual betting together.

That's the worst tendentious bullshit I have read on the subject. Not knowing the odds you are betting at is unambigously worse than knowing. I have been wagering for decades and pari mutuel is for the sort of degenerate who bets on every race. All serious gamblers prefer fixed odds. The operator loves parimutuel because he takes no risk whatever and it is dead simple to manage.

Bitbet doesn't even disclose how the pool is divided in its FAQ! Even nasty government run betting pools diclose this and moreover tell you the current marginal odds. Bitbet doesn't do that either.

Thanks for your post. It was very informative. It infomed me that you and Bitbet are not to be trusted.

Care to rephrase that into something I can answer to, or would you rather go down in history as "that other sock account made by people MPOE-PR burned alive and who don't have the ballsack to whine at her from their main account"?

My Credentials  | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology! | Use bitcointa.lk, it's like this one but better.
Giulio Prisco
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March 25, 2013, 11:46:26 AM
 #16

The horrible user interface of FX is a badge of honors, it shows that it is a very old website! I know the people who created it, some years ago it had a good community of frequent users, but it seems dead recently. Perhaps this is a good time to revive it.

The code is open source, so it is reasonably easy to add a modern user interface, Bitcoin as game currency (better to use an external wallet instead of a built-in wallet I guess, this should give more confidence to users), and a trustable play/payment system.


http://ideosphere.com/ - one of the oldest implementations of prediction markets, developed in the Stone Age of the Internet

Ideosphere's "Foresight Exchange" works really well, once you master its arcane user interface. It's just for play-money, which is why it's still operating after all these years. The operators aren't as active now as they were a few years ago, unfortunately, and the site is no as active as it used to be.

A Bitcoin prediction market could easily be piggybacked off Ideosphere's statements (they call them "claims")? Let ideosphere do the setup of claims, and judgement of the outcomes.

Then you add a Bitcoin service.

This service runs the market, which pairs up those who predict a positive outcome and those who predict a negative outcome, and establishes the trade price. This would work exactly like the Ideosphere market. But the Bitcoin market wouldn't handle the actual bitcoins. Instead, it pairs up players, creates the "yes" and "no" coupons, and validates a multisig transaction from each player to the other (to be processed if that player loses).

Whenever the Bitcoin service notices that Ideosphere was judged an outcome, it then provides the remaining signature for the Bitcoin transaction by which the loser pays the winner. The transaction in the other direction never has the missing signature provided.
Predictious
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August 05, 2013, 06:27:41 PM
 #17



We wanted to update this old thread to list the Bitcoin Prediction Market that we've launched at the beginning of July: Predictious.
If you have questions, feel free to update our official thread.

As a true prediction market:
- you can buy and sell at any moment, and re-sell the shares you own to make early profits.
- you know the odds you're going to get right away (you actually set them yourself, with the price per share you're willing to offer, then you will always win mBTC10 per share)
Giulio Prisco
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November 23, 2013, 09:26:34 AM
 #18

Very cool Predictious! I am taking a first look at your website, looks very good. If you manage to attract a critical mass of users, I am sure Predictious will go places.
Giulio Prisco
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March 11, 2014, 09:28:37 AM
 #19

It's a good idea.
But only if you can implement trustless prediction market in BTC.

Is Ethereum the answer?
aliceHortrex
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March 11, 2014, 09:31:16 AM
 #20

Take a look at betcoiner.com - it looks kinda nice and elegant.
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