I feel like I'm dreaming, is this crap for real? For how long?

[Icy-]

If this stuff is for real, I'll be able to invest around $1000 to make $1600/month?! How long will all this last? Are there any cons into this? I'm so confused as to how offering computing power is making all this money rain.. Is it hard to convert to USD?

Thanks.

[1715101859]

1715101859

[1715101859]

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[1715101859]

1715101859

[1715101859]

1715101859

[1715101859]

1715101859

[jme621]

difficulty will change, so keep dreaming and someone will come along to explain it much better than me

[bcpokey]

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

[Icy-]

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

[pwnyboy]

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

You're not listening.  Difficulty will soon increase.  That's a guarantee at this point.  The forex value of Bitcoins, in US dollars, is not guaranteed.  They could go to $0 in 19 days, 7 hours.  Don't ever assume the forex will keep pace with difficulty.

[bcpokey]

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

That doesn't tell me WHERE you got 1623.67 from. You could have just said "83498934" for all that tells me.

Just for fun I'll show you what I mean:

4x 5830s = ~4*285 (you may get more, you may get less, this is a reasonable average) = 1140MHash/sec.
1140MHash/sec = ฿2.02 /day on a low variance, 0% fee pool with average luck. I'm going with averages here, so let's go with that.

Next difficulty increase is in ~6days, so 6days * 2.02BTC/day = 12.12BTC (if you started mining RIGHT NOW, this is optimistic as you dont even have the equipment yet)
Next difficulty projected @ 733627 (likely to be higher but this is what we have now)

1140MHash/sec @ 733627 = 1.56BTC / day
1.56BTC /day * 10 days (avg time @ difficulty lately) = 15.6 BTC

Next difficulty could be whatever, lets go with 30% again
1140Mhash/sec @ 953715 = 1.2BTC /day x 10 days = 12BTC

12.1 + 15.6 + 12 = 39.6 for a 26 day window (close enough to a month). Assuming coins to be @ $35/coin (could be more, could be less) x 40 coins = $1400. If coins are $45 you make $1800 if coins are $5 you make $200.

This is an optimistic guess assuming lots of stuff goes your way and you can your rig up and running today but it can give you a feel for your diminishing profits and variability based on coin price.

[Icy-]

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

That doesn't tell me WHERE you got 1623.67 from. You could have just said "83498934" for all that tells me.

Just for fun I'll show you what I mean:

4x 5830s = ~4*285 (you may get more, you may get less, this is a reasonable average) = 1140MHash/sec.
1140MHash/sec = ฿2.02 /day on a low variance, 0% fee pool with average luck. I'm going with averages here, so let's go with that.

Next difficulty increase is in ~6days, so 6days * 2.02BTC/day = 12.12BTC (if you started mining RIGHT NOW, this is optimistic as you dont even have the equipment yet)
Next difficulty projected @ 733627 (likely to be higher but this is what we have now)

1140MHash/sec @ 733627 = 1.56BTC / day
1.56BTC /day * 10 days (avg time @ difficulty lately) = 15.6 BTC

Next difficulty could be whatever, lets go with 30% again
1140Mhash/sec @ 953715 = 1.2BTC /day x 10 days = 12BTC

12.1 + 15.6 + 12 = 39.6 for a 26 day window (close enough to a month). Assuming coins to be @ $35/coin (could be more, could be less) x 40 coins = $1400. If coins are $45 you make $1800 if coins are $5 you make $200.

This is an optimistic guess assuming lots of stuff goes your way and you can your rig up and running today but it can give you a feel for your diminishing profits and variability based on coin price.

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

[bcpokey]

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

[Icy-]

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.

[bleedkira]

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.

I want to punch you. That is all.

[Jack of Diamonds]

Go to http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php and enter 1000000 as the difficulty. That's what you will be mining at in 2-3 weeks. Then roughly 2 weeks after that 1300000 etc.

[nemo]

You gotta be careful with those month long predictions. I thought I was going to be pulling in shit gallons of bitcoins a month. Turns out I'm only pulling in a couple poopoo pints here and there. It's badass, but you're not going to get the amount of coin you're thinking. Then again, the price could shoot up and it wouldn't matter.

I was expecting 150 coins a month when they were at $6, ended up getting 35 coins, but now they're 30. So basically you're buying a mining rig to speculate.

[Xer]

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php is wrong in so many ways it should be shutdown. As it simply Does Not account for any difficulty increases AT ALL.

That one has been a issue for beginners for a long time now now by giving out false earning values.

[iMiner]

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

[niemivh]

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.

That's how we initiate around here.

You passed.

[pwnyboy]

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

The correlation is that newcomers buy up coins, price goes up, kiddies run out and buy as much hardware as they can.  Since Bitcoin has no utility yet (except for criminals or people who want to make micropayments without fees), it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme - the machine needs new entrants (investors) to keep the scheme running, otherwise it fizzles out and dies.  Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.

[iMiner]

(except for criminals or people who want to make micropayments without fees)

Exactly that may turn out to be an important detail.

[dingus]

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme...


Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.

I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

[Bit_Happy]

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme...


Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.

I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

It's BitSpeak, welcome to the Brave New World.   
Currently Bitcoin has many similarities to a brilliant Ponzi scheme. If the BTC economy and general usage grows fast enough, then it will be  revolutionary.

[pwnyboy]

I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

You clearly missed the part where I stated the _ideas_ are revolutionary.  I was referring to the design from a technical and logical standpoint.

[Nemesis099]

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

The correlation is that newcomers buy up coins, price goes up, kiddies run out and buy as much hardware as they can.  Since Bitcoin has no utility yet (except for criminals or people who want to make micropayments without fees), it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme - the machine needs new entrants (investors) to keep the scheme running, otherwise it fizzles out and dies.  Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.

I just started and what I liked about it is that as long as I'm able to make money back to pay off the equipment in around 3-4 months it is worth it to me.  This gives me a huge return as I get a computer I wanted without my wife complaining about purchasing it.  So hopefully the ponzi scheme lasts long enough for me to do that or I won't hear the end of it.

[dingus]

I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

You clearly missed the part where I stated the _ideas_ are revolutionary.  I was referring to the design from a technical and logical standpoint.

Bitcoin is still boot-strapping itself and it's economy. Of course those who were early adopters will be wealthier than those who came in late. It is part of the risk. The higher risk you take the more money you could possibly earn or lose. It's the same as those who bought google stocks before they shot up in price. Would you call that a ponzi scheme? I am willing to bet if you were an early adopter with 100k+ coins you wouldn't be screaming ponzi scheme.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Bitcoin IS indeed a Ponzi scheme if people can't (or don't) start paying for everyday purchases with Bitcoin.

If it's mostly guys speculating in Bitcoins and/or computer hardware, how is it different than Dot-com stocks, house flipping, or tulip bulbs?  In all those cases, people thought the value would keep going up, until some physical limit was reached (houses are only affordable up to a certain price; someone said "$500? Hey, I just bought a tulip bulb for $500!") and then it all unravels/collapses.

Bitcoin needs to have a more stable value -- that is, a value in something other than exchanging it for US currency. To exchange it, someone has to want to BUY Bitcoins on the other side. Who does that today? Mostly speculators hoping to cash in on the rise of Bitcoin value.

[FreeJAC]

I don't think this can be characterized as a ponzi scheme because of the fact that you can mine as in do work and be paid for it. Ponzi schemes are giving noobs money to the seasoned folks that have been around longer and that isn't really happening here. Or am I that naive? LOL! Many have not put any money into this scheme and have taken money out doing work. (AKA mining)

[gat3way]

Once seasoned folks decide to cash out it's very much becoming a Ponzi scheme. Well someone gotta profit on all that swarm of people throwing thousands of fiat currency into GPUs and BTC. Anyway, unlike Ponzi schemes that would not be the end of it all. It's like evolution you know   Nobrainers deserve their fate.

[bcpokey]

Well FreeJaC people are playing fast and loose with the definition of ponzi scheme. They are really conflating the idea with a pyramid scheme. Neither one is technically true, but they're both close enough that it's not really worthwhile to argue it.

Bitcoin does need to be usable for transactions. It is. But it needs wider penetration. However you have to remember that bitcoin is still tiny. I keep telling people this and they keep dropping it out of their heads. Already however you can buy food, computer parts, lots of illegal drugs, pornography, and other things with bitcoins, that's a pretty good start considering there are only about 30-50000 users (not sure at the moment).

Right now there is healthy interest in bitcoin, and it is growing, and growing fast (even if most of the attention is focused on mining and selling). It may collapse either from too little growth or too much growth in the future, but so can anything.

[dingus]

Bitcoin IS indeed a Ponzi scheme if people can't (or don't) start paying for everyday purchases with Bitcoin.

To exchange it, someone has to want to BUY Bitcoins on the other side. Who does that today? Mostly speculators hoping to cash in on the rise of Bitcoin value.

There are benefits to turning your USD into bitcoins. One reason is you control your money. No one can pump money into the system to devalue your dollars. Pseudo-anonymity being another reason. The fact that bitcoin is bankless (and therefore fee-less) is another reason. The fact that I can send coins to anyone around the world without converting and reconverting between different currencies is another reason. The fact that any number of coins can all fit into a postage stamp sized SD card is yet another benefit.

[dingus]

Once seasoned folks decide to cash out it's very much becoming a Ponzi scheme. Well someone gotta profit on all that swarm of people throwing thousands of fiat currency into GPUs and BTC. Anyway, unlike Ponzi schemes that would not be the end of it all. It's like evolution you know   Nobrainers deserve their fate.

Don't you see the 1000 coin and up trades happening on mt gox? At what coin amount do you consider "cashing out" to be?

[The Koolio]

calling it a ponzi scheme is like saying buy some shares in a company and in 10 years cash out cause they are 20 times more in value... now thats not a ponzi is it?

[eleuthria]

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.

I want to punch you. That is all.

Off-topic (probably my first completely off-topic forum post in history), but bleedkira, I love you.  That one liner just brightened my day, and I'm not just saying that because you have a BTC Guild sig.

[dingus]

calling it a ponzi scheme is like saying buy some shares in a company and in 10 years cash out cause they are 20 times more in value... now thats not a ponzi is it?

Yes, of course it is. And that is based solely on the fact that the early buyers made more money than you.  

[gat3way]

Don't you see the 1000 coin and up trades happening on mt gox? At what coin amount do you consider "cashing out" to be?

Who knows? That's what keeps the influx of new miners after all.

[pwnyboy]

What makes it a ponzi scheme right now, IMO, is the fact that Bitcoins are only a store of value.  That's all.  They're something that a few people agree have some worth.  Some will argue that mining is the "good/service" aspect of it - analogous to those stocks that keep getting mentioned.  That's incorrect.  There's a difference in Bitcoins and stocks.  Publicly traded companies MUST demonstrate utility, or a likelihood thereof, in order to get bought.  Bitcoins do not.  Bitcoins at this point are just an idea.  An idea with much potential, but an idea none the less.  I got into Bitcoins heavily when I saw the article on MoneyLaundering.com - that was my "buy" signal.  Some day it might have utility to criminals, but right now, who could a drug dealer find to move $50MM USD of currency across a border, in an end-to-end cash to cash exchange with Bitcoins as the conduit?  If such an exchange exists, they certainly don't make themselves known.  So until it has at least a modicum of utility, beyond storing value, it's nothing more than a house of cards.  And again, I'm hoping the utility aspect will improve, because the ideas are strong.

[Bit_Happy]

I don't think this can be characterized as a ponzi scheme because of the fact that you can mine as in do work and be paid for it. Ponzi schemes are giving noobs money to the seasoned folks that have been around longer and that isn't really happening here. Or am I that naive? LOL! Many have not put any money into this scheme and have taken money out doing work. (AKA mining)

I said "many similarities to a brilliant Ponzi scheme", you are describing one of the brilliant features, IMO.

[bcpokey]

What makes it a ponzi scheme right now, IMO, is the fact that Bitcoins are only a store of value.  That's all.  They're something that a few people agree have some worth.  Some will argue that mining is the "good/service" aspect of it - analogous to those stocks that keep getting mentioned.  That's incorrect.  There's a difference in Bitcoins and stocks.  Publicly traded companies MUST demonstrate utility, or a likelihood thereof, in order to get bought.  Bitcoins do not.  Bitcoins at this point are just an idea.  An idea with much potential, but an idea none the less.  I got into Bitcoins heavily when I saw the article on MoneyLaundering.com - that was my "buy" signal.  Some day it might have utility to criminals, but right now, who could a drug dealer find to move $50MM USD of currency across a border, in an end-to-end cash to cash exchange with Bitcoins as the conduit?  If such an exchange exists, they certainly don't make themselves known.  So until it has at least a modicum of utility, beyond storing value, it's nothing more than a house of cards.  And again, I'm hoping the utility aspect will improve, because the ideas are strong.

Say what? All currency is a "store of value". Green pieces of paper have no more intrinsic worth than that people have agreed that it does.  And there have been far more than a few paperbacks that have ended up worthless because people lost faith in it and it had nothing to back it beyond that faith.

Publicly traded companies have no requirement like you specify. They need merely convince people that they will be worth more than they are now or interest people in the company, same thing.

Also as to drug trafficking, there is already a massive drug trade via bitcoin, to the point where senators are trying to shut down bitcoin because of it.

But anyway, that aside, bitcoin is in its infancy, whether it will be seen as a ponzi scheme or not will be decided in the future by its success or failure/.

[gat3way]

Green paper currency is backed by multi-billion industry/mining/services sector that puts its trust in it. Bitcoin OTOH is not.

[cablepair]

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

[bcpokey]

Green paper currency is backed by multi-billion industry/mining/services sector that puts its trust in it. Bitcoin OTOH is not.

Do you see how circular an argument that is? A multi-billion dollar industry puts its faith into dollars. Therefore dollars have value because of the dollar value of faith lenders.

Anyway, I'm not saying that bitcoin is inferior or superior, but the argument that bitcoin only has the value that people place in it is not a valid one, as that is true of all world currency that are not guaranteed by anything tangible.

[gat3way]

Do you see how circular an argument that is? A multi-billion dollar industry puts its faith into dollars. Therefore dollars have value because of the dollar value of faith lenders.

IMO yes, faith is what drives demand and demand is one of the two factors driving value.

[Jack of Diamonds]

How many times do people need to hear it. It's not a fucking ponzi. I haven't bought a cent worth of BTC but I frequently trade them for tangible commodities, fiat currency and save them in encrypted wallets. It's called mining.

A ponzi scheme requires new members to pay to old members. If you start mining today you are not paying anyone anything with the exception of some hardware store and your electricity company. Chances are you already had internet access.

If someone wants to buy bitcoins then more power to them. Many people see it as a lot more hassle free than running mining operations, and it can yield a good return in the long haul too.

If someone wants to go on BitEgg and buy memory cards for their camera then more power to them. If they want to speculate on the price going up or down then more power to them.
If they realize it's a finite commodity that is practically impossible to forge, with very high levels of security and anonymity compared to ordinary money, even better.

Newsflash: The money I get in exchange for BTC in my bank account is virtual too. It's just numbers. There is absolutely nothing backing it, or its' value up except some vague promises from the state. BTC on the other hand is backed by extremely strong cryptography and a finite supply. A central bank on the other hand creates new fiat currency out of thin air.

[gat3way]

How many times do people need to hear it. It's not a fucking ponzi. I haven't bought a cent worth of BTC but I frequently trade them for tangible commodities, fiat currency and save them in encrypted wallets. It's called mining.

Yes and who bought your BTC? Why can't you accept the fact that one day they may decide to sell it for a fiat currency just like you did?

[FreeJAC]

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel.  

[dingus]

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel.  

Except, 1 BTC 2 months ago was ~4-5 dollars each. Now they are ~30.  You make more or less the same dollar amount now as you did 2 months ago.

[AnonymousBat]

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel. 

Except, 1 BTC 2 months ago was ~4-5 dollars each. Now they are ~30.  You make more or less the same dollar amount now as you did 2 months ago.

Yeah, you're right. The gold rush is over. Might as well just sell your equipment while you still can.

I'll buy it.

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel.  

Except, 1 BTC 2 months ago was ~4-5 dollars each. Now they are ~30.  You make more or less the same dollar amount now as you did 2 months ago.

No no no, he totally made less money because now he gets less bitcoin!



Seriously though, this is basic economics. People for some reason get stuck on one number.

[Jack of Diamonds]

How many times do people need to hear it. It's not a fucking ponzi. I haven't bought a cent worth of BTC but I frequently trade them for tangible commodities, fiat currency and save them in encrypted wallets. It's called mining.

Yes and who bought your BTC? Why can't you accept the fact that one day they may decide to sell it for a fiat currency just like you did?

Who is stopping them from selling it?

What happens to the BTC economy even if they sell it? Absolutely nothing. It's called liquidity.
The market would be dead if nobody was selling. It would be impossible for non-miners to acquire bitcoins.

No, it's not going to crash because people change it to USD, EUR or JPY.

Is gold crashing because it's sold in massive amounts every day for fiat currency?
Gold is just a shiny commodity with no real value except that given to it by the market and it's rarity/difficulty of obtaining.

Paper and bank money is even more worthless.
It isn't even backed up by rarity and there's tons printed every day out of nowhere. Just look at the joke of a currency called Zimbabwean dollar (of which 100 trillion dollars is not worth even close to 1 bitcoin) because absolutely nobody trusts it anymore

Paper money doesn't even have trust or security backing it up (can be faked and passed off relatively easy even by semi-professionals), people only use it because other people use it and believe it's worth tangible goods.

[pwnyboy]

A ponzi scheme requires new members to pay to old members.

At this moment, the same seems to be true of Bitcoin.  That is, it requires new money, perpetually, to make the coins worth the cost of minting them, and to uphold everyone's faith in the system.  Picture my forefathers, some 200 years ago.  They had to start minting the US government's first supply of money, so some guy with a bunch of copper deposits tells the gov he'll go dig up a big chunk of copper in his backyard and break it down into chunks small enough that it can be pressed into pennies.  In exchange, he'll receive a few of these newly minted pennies that he can use to exchange with other people who accept pennies.  [Of course, the reason for such example is that the gov. had no other practical way to confer anything of value to the guy in exchange for his copper and his time, other than their coins.]  So he does as they wish, gets his pennies, pays for some more labor, maybe for more land with copper deposits, etc.  The point of this rather crude parallel is.. if the gov's source of copper dries up, they can't mint any new pennies, thus there aren't enough pennies in circulation to become useful to anyone.  Now that they've lost their utility, their value is gone as well, and people no longer exchange their time and talents for pennies.

Just sayin..

[Synaptic]

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel. 

Except, 1 BTC 2 months ago was ~4-5 dollars each. Now they are ~30.  You make more or less the same dollar amount now as you did 2 months ago.

Yeah, you're right. The gold rush is over. Might as well just sell your equipment while you still can.

I'll buy it.

dont dream too long.

when I built my first rig 2 months ago I had a 8 BTC mining day with just 1000 mh/s

1000 mh/s mines between 1-2 BTC per day now.

and its only going to keep going up.

Wow! Now there is a hard dose of reality. Difficulty, a miners Achilles heel.  

Except, 1 BTC 2 months ago was ~4-5 dollars each. Now they are ~30.  You make more or less the same dollar amount now as you did 2 months ago.

No no no, he totally made less money because now he gets less bitcoin!



Seriously though, this is basic economics. People for some reason get stuck on one number.

I think his post just reflects the fact that only the bullish, the unwise, and the fools believe a $30/BTC is sustainable in the near term.  Next difficulty increase will likely see an average $18/BTC for that period, which was already overvalued last round at that price. I'm not banking on $30/BTC in the near term, and neither should anyone else without money to throw away. You ARE making less mining now than then, unless you're also day-trading every day, and smartly.