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Author Topic: I feel like I'm dreaming, is this crap for real? For how long?  (Read 5239 times)
Icy-
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June 09, 2011, 07:06:50 AM
 #1

If this stuff is for real, I'll be able to invest around $1000 to make $1600/month?! How long will all this last? Are there any cons into this? I'm so confused as to how offering computing power is making all this money rain.. Is it hard to convert to USD?

Thanks.
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jme621
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June 09, 2011, 07:10:05 AM
 #2

difficulty will change, so keep dreaming and someone will come along to explain it much better than me

bcpokey
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June 09, 2011, 07:18:31 AM
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Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.
Icy-
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June 09, 2011, 07:25:13 AM
 #4

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD
pwnyboy
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June 09, 2011, 07:29:46 AM
 #5

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

You're not listening.  Difficulty will soon increase.  That's a guarantee at this point.  The forex value of Bitcoins, in US dollars, is not guaranteed.  They could go to $0 in 19 days, 7 hours.  Don't ever assume the forex will keep pace with difficulty.
bcpokey
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June 09, 2011, 07:32:33 AM
 #6

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

That doesn't tell me WHERE you got 1623.67 from. You could have just said "83498934" for all that tells me.

Just for fun I'll show you what I mean:

4x 5830s = ~4*285 (you may get more, you may get less, this is a reasonable average) = 1140MHash/sec.
1140MHash/sec = ฿2.02 /day on a low variance, 0% fee pool with average luck. I'm going with averages here, so let's go with that.

Next difficulty increase is in ~6days, so 6days * 2.02BTC/day = 12.12BTC (if you started mining RIGHT NOW, this is optimistic as you dont even have the equipment yet)
Next difficulty projected @ 733627 (likely to be higher but this is what we have now)

1140MHash/sec @ 733627 = 1.56BTC / day
1.56BTC /day * 10 days (avg time @ difficulty lately) = 15.6 BTC

Next difficulty could be whatever, lets go with 30% again
1140Mhash/sec @ 953715 = 1.2BTC /day x 10 days = 12BTC

12.1 + 15.6 + 12 = 39.6 for a 26 day window (close enough to a month). Assuming coins to be @ $35/coin (could be more, could be less) x 40 coins = $1400. If coins are $45 you make $1800 if coins are $5 you make $200.

This is an optimistic guess assuming lots of stuff goes your way and you can your rig up and running today but it can give you a feel for your diminishing profits and variability based on coin price.
Icy-
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June 09, 2011, 07:37:01 AM
 #7

Where do you get these numbers from?

Assuming you invested $1000 in a rig and managed to somehow get 4x 5850s (they're hard to find) and managed to get it up and running this instant you'd only have 6 days left at this difficulty level, or 13.8 BTC (assuming you hopped on a lucky 0% fee pool). Next difficulty is going up about 30% (probably more) so you'll see a 75% rate of coins for the next 10-12 days. Depending on how many more people jump on board difficulty will go up again.

Bitcoin prices might rise, they might fall, who knows. There are no guarantees in this game.

AMD motherboard with 4x PCIE slots, AMD CPU, 2GB DDR3 memory and 4x ATi 5830 graphics cards, an 850W Power supply and any old hard drive with windows XP or newer
Be mindful of the physical location of those 4 slots, lest you have to use risers. Make sure the power supply has enough connectors for the cards you buy. Linux is worth considering for a dedicated mining box.

Revenue in 1 month frame: 1623.67 USD
Revenue minus power costs: 1577.10 USD
Hardware break even: 19 days, 7 hours
Net profit first time frame: 577.10 USD

That doesn't tell me WHERE you got 1623.67 from. You could have just said "83498934" for all that tells me.

Just for fun I'll show you what I mean:

4x 5830s = ~4*285 (you may get more, you may get less, this is a reasonable average) = 1140MHash/sec.
1140MHash/sec = ฿2.02 /day on a low variance, 0% fee pool with average luck. I'm going with averages here, so let's go with that.

Next difficulty increase is in ~6days, so 6days * 2.02BTC/day = 12.12BTC (if you started mining RIGHT NOW, this is optimistic as you dont even have the equipment yet)
Next difficulty projected @ 733627 (likely to be higher but this is what we have now)

1140MHash/sec @ 733627 = 1.56BTC / day
1.56BTC /day * 10 days (avg time @ difficulty lately) = 15.6 BTC

Next difficulty could be whatever, lets go with 30% again
1140Mhash/sec @ 953715 = 1.2BTC /day x 10 days = 12BTC

12.1 + 15.6 + 12 = 39.6 for a 26 day window (close enough to a month). Assuming coins to be @ $35/coin (could be more, could be less) x 40 coins = $1400. If coins are $45 you make $1800 if coins are $5 you make $200.

This is an optimistic guess assuming lots of stuff goes your way and you can your rig up and running today but it can give you a feel for your diminishing profits and variability based on coin price.

Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php
bcpokey
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June 09, 2011, 07:37:58 AM
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Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.
Icy-
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June 09, 2011, 07:40:09 AM
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Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.
bleedkira
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June 09, 2011, 07:41:20 AM
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Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.
I want to punch you. That is all.
Jack of Diamonds
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June 09, 2011, 07:58:51 AM
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Go to http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php and enter 1000000 as the difficulty. That's what you will be mining at in 2-3 weeks. Then roughly 2 weeks after that 1300000 etc.

1f3gHNoBodYw1LLs3ndY0UanYB1tC0lnsBec4USeYoU9AREaCH34PBeGgAR67fx
nemo
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June 09, 2011, 08:01:09 AM
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You gotta be careful with those month long predictions. I thought I was going to be pulling in shit gallons of bitcoins a month. Turns out I'm only pulling in a couple poopoo pints here and there. It's badass, but you're not going to get the amount of coin you're thinking. Then again, the price could shoot up and it wouldn't matter.

I was expecting 150 coins a month when they were at $6, ended up getting 35 coins, but now they're 30. So basically you're buying a mining rig to speculate.
Xer
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June 09, 2011, 08:04:38 AM
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http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php is wrong in so many ways it should be shutdown. As it simply Does Not account for any difficulty increases AT ALL.

That one has been a issue for beginners for a long time now now by giving out false earning values.
iMiner
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June 09, 2011, 08:06:06 AM
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But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)

niemivh
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June 09, 2011, 08:34:28 AM
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Someone posted it for me based off of 4 grx cards

http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php

Ok, well I guess if a webpage said it then it must be true.

No different from anyone else telling me, how about you stop being so rude.

That's how we initiate around here.

You passed.

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

16LdMA6pCgq9ULrstHmiwwwbGe1BJQyDqr
pwnyboy
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June 09, 2011, 10:00:13 AM
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But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)



The correlation is that newcomers buy up coins, price goes up, kiddies run out and buy as much hardware as they can.  Since Bitcoin has no utility yet (except for criminals or people who want to make micropayments without fees), it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme - the machine needs new entrants (investors) to keep the scheme running, otherwise it fizzles out and dies.  Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.
iMiner
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June 09, 2011, 08:04:47 PM
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(except for criminals or people who want to make micropayments without fees)

Exactly that may turn out to be an important detail.
dingus
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June 09, 2011, 08:09:12 PM
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But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)



it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme...


Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.


I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

ding·us/ˈdiNGgəs/
Noun: Used to refer to something whose name the speaker cannot remember, is unsure of, or is humorously or euphemistically omitting
Bit_Happy
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June 09, 2011, 08:23:35 PM
 #19

But by mining you kind of buy insurance against a fall in bitcoin value, considering the (historically) strong correlation between price and difficulty (but of course: historic results...no guarantees....etc.)



it's essentially nothing more than a glorified ponzi scheme...


Though I do hope it becomes much more than that, because the ideas behind it are revolutionary.


I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

It's BitSpeak, welcome to the Brave New World.   Cheesy
Currently Bitcoin has many similarities to a brilliant Ponzi scheme. If the BTC economy and general usage grows fast enough, then it will be  revolutionary.

15DYJpWJe9H1YofsNQbP9JEWWNn7XPZgbS
pwnyboy
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June 09, 2011, 08:26:56 PM
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I am confused by these two statements. You say it is a ponzi scheme but how is that revolutionary?

You clearly missed the part where I stated the _ideas_ are revolutionary.  I was referring to the design from a technical and logical standpoint.
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