2MB Pros and Cons

[Quantus]

I would never use bitcoin if I couldn't run a full node.

[1715019566]

1715019566

[adamstgBit]

Hark fork is not a con. bitcoin has hard forked several times. Many altcoins have hard forked to change features. If you give a few months notic, there is no problem.

agreed, i will addendum Con #1

[adamstgBit]

I would never use bitcoin if I couldn't run a full node.

lucky for you, you dont live in bum fuck nowhere 

[watashi-kokoto]

Bump to 2MB could signalize: raising cap forever is okay. Changing hard rules anytime is fine.

Getting on a slippery slope. With large enough blocks, only high-end  datacenter servers could participate in Bitcoin.

[Quantus]

Con: HF potentially goes bad and the mother of all DDos wars breaks out between two distinct camps/chains/networks.

[adamstgBit]

Bump to 2MB could signalize: raising cap forever is okay. Changing hard rules anytime is fine.

Getting on a slippery slope. With large enough blocks, only high-end  datacenter servers could participate in Bitcoin.

sets a bad precedent for changing consensus rules, and can lead down a slippery slope, which eventually lead to: only high-end  datacenter servers could participate in Bitcoin.

I like this one.

but i'll add the the change wasn't done lightly it tooks years of debate.

Con: HF potentially goes bad and the mother of all DDos wars breaks out between two distinct camps/chains/networks.

this would be the "marginal risk" the addendum on Con#1 is talking about, i'll try to squeeze that in there.

[AliceWonderMiscreations]

altcoin hostility. altcoins existed since litecoin, and are the original scaling mechanism envisioned by Satoshi. Simply start 2000 Bitcoin clones with 1MB blocks each and you have 2GB worth of blocks (visa scale) - instantly!  limited bitcoin capacity allows altcoins to innovate, experiment and explore novel concepts. If Bitcoin actually becomes challenged by an alt (it won't), it can adopt

This I agree with, the only problem is that so many altcoins are scams that there is little trust in altcoins.

I won't go near them because every single one I have looked at either has a huge premine or other shady aspect to it, or doesn't keep up with changes in core that we know are necessary fixes.

But in the future I believe there will be region specific altcoins that work (region specific meaning businesses in a certain geographic region are more likely to accept them) and that bitcoin will largely be the mechanism by which people exchange from one altcoin to another when they travel or do business outside their region.

[adamstgBit]

updated OP and added a new Con


"2MB is still not nearly enough block space to compete with other payment processors like VISA"

Doubling bloc size to 2mb?
And your listing that as a con, cos it's not better than visa?
FFS.

I believe the point is that it wouldn't be a final solution and more work and optimisation would still need to be done in order to achieve similar scalability to other payment methods.  Otherwise we're just going to have the same issues later down the line.

visa's capacity is only based on 60 years of slow growth to 800million users.
why does there have to be equal capacity by 2017??
bitcoin doesnt have 800 million users. i dont think it will get 800million users in 16 months or less

so lets base it on bitcoin users (2mill) and make rational judgement of perceived growth slowly

at the moment visa stats say that their users do approximately 40 transactions a year (some daily some only monthly) per user
http://www.statista.com/statistics/279275/average-credit-card-transaction-volume-per-card-worldwide/

so bitcoin has 2million users. making it 80mill transactions buffer needed as a minimum
bitcoin does ~2000tx a block, 144 blocks, 365 days a year = 105,120,000tx a year

so 1mb can handle 2million people doing an average 50 transactions.
or reworded
bitcoin at 1mb can handle 2.5million people doing similar transactions as on visa

which means 2mb can handle 2mill people doing 100tx each or 5million people doing similar visa card uses.

now lets think about 2mb+segwit (2million people 200tx or 10million people doing similar visa trend transactions.)

and thats probably going to be available in 2017

then we can calmdown and know over 15 years we can slow grow more (it doesnt need to be visa comparable by 2017)

to put it into prospective by 2017 (2mb+segwit) we will be at 10% of paypal or 10% of visa US or 1.25% of visa world wide.

which if we had lets say 4mb+segwit in 2020 20%paypal, 20%visa US, 2.5% visa worldwide.

then we can look at LN which meant to be 15x more possibilitys (take that number loosly as its based on lauda's numbers)

meaning
2mb+segwit+LN = 150% paypal, 150% visa USA and 18.75% visa world wide.
4mb+segwit+LN = 300% paypal, 300% visa USA and 37.5% visa world wide.
8mb+segwit+LN = 600% paypal, 600% visa USA and 75% visa world wide.

so atmost
12mb+segwit+LN = 900% paypal, 900%visa USA and 112.5% visa world wide.

now we all know 12mb+segwit is actually more like 24mb real data so dont expect to grow to that by 2018-2020. but i can see it easily happening before 2030.. very easily

i've summarized and added


bitcoin doesn't have 800 million users. bitcoin has ~2 million users 2MB will satisfy the current number of users  and allow for some growth
2MB might not be the ultimate scaling solution, but alongside segwit and Lighting Network we can scale bitcoin beyond VISA like capacity.

to Con #6

[Quantus]

No... I honestly "hand of god" don't think its a marginal risk at all, I think its a certainty.  If 10% of our current user base refuse to upgrade to 2mb they could keep the 1mb chain alive. Yes it would be stalled for many weeks and then attacked on and off for potentially years, we would have to wait for 100 or 200 confirmations or more for each transaction but it could be done. And if the original chain survives.. well you should know what that means.

[adamstgBit]

altcoin hostility. altcoins existed since litecoin, and are the original scaling mechanism envisioned by Satoshi. Simply start 2000 Bitcoin clones with 1MB blocks each and you have 2GB worth of blocks (visa scale) - instantly!  limited bitcoin capacity allows altcoins to innovate, experiment and explore novel concepts. If Bitcoin actually becomes challenged by an alt (it won't), it can adopt

This I agree with, the only problem is that so many altcoins are scams that there is little trust in altcoins.

I won't go near them because every single one I have looked at either has a huge premine or other shady aspect to it, or doesn't keep up with changes in core that we know are necessary fixes.

But in the future I believe there will be region specific altcoins that work (region specific meaning businesses in a certain geographic region are more likely to accept them) and that bitcoin will largely be the mechanism by which people exchange from one altcoin to another when they travel or do business outside their region.

all this talk reminds me that bitcoin has seen a lose in market share, poeple appear to be moving to ETH as a safe haven to bitcoin's scaling crisis

[adamstgBit]

No... I honestly "hand of god" don't think its a marginal risk at all, I think its a certainty.  If 10% of our current user base refuse to upgrade to 2mb they could keep the 1mb chain alive. Yes it would be stalled for many weeks and then attacked on and off for potentially years, we would have to wait for 100 or 200 confirmations or more for each transaction but it could be done. And if the original chain survives.. well you should know what that means.

with only 10% backing it, it's likely the remaining 90% will want to sell the coins they have on this chain completely destroying its value.

if you consider that 75% was a "vote" and then the grace period allows the losing side to comply with supermajority rule, its likely the other chain will be DOA if it is attempted.

here's a terrible analogy:
When an election wins with a minority (winning with less the 51%, they win because they have the highest percentage ) you dont see everyone leaving the country. And we are talking about winning with a supermajority, risk of war civil war over this is marginal...

[Quantus]

I'm not saying it would be logical or suggesting the 1mb chain would be particularly useful, you know... given the huge drop in price and usability; do to the loss of the network effect. But again it could be done regardless of motive. A very small number of nutters could keep the old chain alive for whatever ideological reasons. And we can't crown a new king until the last one is dead.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

altcoins existed since litecoin, and are the original scaling mechanism envisioned by Satoshi. Simply start 2000 Bitcoin clones with 1MB blocks each and you have 2GB worth of blocks (visa scale) - instantly!  limited bitcoin capacity allows altcoins to innovate, experiment and explore novel concepts. If Bitcoin actually becomes challenged by an alt (it won't), it can adopt

I'd be interested to know how you came to the conclusion that altcoins were ever a part of Satoshi's vision for scaling. The white paper?

[e-coinomist]

I would never use bitcoin if I couldn't run a full node.

The hardware requirements aren't that prohibitive.
A midway could be Electrum style wallets and honorable public full nodes.

[e-coinomist]

altcoins existed since litecoin, and are the original scaling mechanism envisioned by Satoshi. Simply start 2000 Bitcoin clones with 1MB blocks each and you have 2GB worth of blocks (visa scale) - instantly!  limited bitcoin capacity allows altcoins to innovate, experiment and explore novel concepts. If Bitcoin actually becomes challenged by an alt (it won't), it can adopt

I'd be interested to know how you came to the conclusion that altcoins were ever a part of Satoshi's vision for scaling. The white paper?

Oh, err, Hi just seen after my posting that you are inside my Signature. Congratulations!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

altcoins existed since litecoin, and are the original scaling mechanism envisioned by Satoshi. Simply start 2000 Bitcoin clones with 1MB blocks each and you have 2GB worth of blocks (visa scale) - instantly!  limited bitcoin capacity allows altcoins to innovate, experiment and explore novel concepts. If Bitcoin actually becomes challenged by an alt (it won't), it can adopt

I'd be interested to know how you came to the conclusion that altcoins were ever a part of Satoshi's vision for scaling. The white paper?

Oh, err, Hi just seen after my posting that you are inside my Signature. Congratulations!

I'm truly humbled and honoured, sir.

[Quantus]

You say the chances of a contentious hard fork is a marginal risk (insinuating it not worth talking about!) but when that "marginal risk" results in a religious war and that's what it would be a god dam holy war, I can't imagine a adequately informed person would be willing to take that risk. We Must wait until we have overwhelming consensus!

so please...
 Con: potential HOLY WAR resulting in catastrophic network failure.

[adamstgBit]

You say the chances of a contentious hard fork is a marginal risk (insinuating it not worth talking about!) but when that "marginal risk" results in a religious war and that's what it would be a god dam holy war, I can't imagine a adequately informed person would be willing to take that risk.

after the 75% trigger plus a grace period, your "holy war" wouldn't go very far.
it would be like a cult declaring war on christianity
it would be so lame it wouldn't make the newspapers.

[adamstgBit]

so please...
 Con: potential HOLY WAR resulting in catastrophic network failure.

[Quantus]

*sigh* Fine whatever, may the DDos be with you sir.