(w/POLL) BTCZ51 (expanding upon maxmint's idea)

[ingrownpocket]

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Who's going to offer the prize? Not me 

And it has to be quite big, at least $3,000 (155 BTC).

[1715612754]

1715612754

[1715612754]

1715612754

[Phinnaeus Gage]

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Exactly what I had in mind--smaller ticket items of value. The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value. Upon writing that last sentence, I now need to clarify. I'm not advocating fencing hot items, though it would work. Seriously, I want part of this action, with all profits going to administering the new Bitcoin 100.

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Who's going to offer the prize? Not me  

And it has to be quite big, at least $3,000 (155 BTC).

I have both aspects covered, and it's prizes (plural). I'm leaning toward ~$100 minimum prizes, but a little lower would work just a well. And yes, offering a house is not outside the realm of possibility, but a new car would be more challenging to procure, though a quality used car, or a classic, is not out of the question.

If I can't partner up with maxmint on this, then I would most definitely seek out edd, or go it alone, but prefer a partner to split the tasks, couple with having more cred for the project.

The name of the enterprise will exclude the word Bitcoin, but Bitcoin, of course, is the only payment option available that'll allows the endeavor to function. All other payment options on the planet fall short for a myriad of reasons.

~Bruno K~

[hackjealousy]

[...]
The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value.
[...]

Keep in mind my analysis wasn't completely generic and assumed that the profits on the sale of each option were split equally between the house and the option owner.  If you re-run the numbers using different ratios you will come up with different final values.

Roughly, if you split the profit on the sale of each option with P percent going to the house and 100 - P percent going to the option owner, the house will have made P percent of the final value of the object when the option price reaches the value of the object.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

[...]
The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value.
[...]

Keep in mind my analysis wasn't completely generic and assumed that the profits on the sale of each option were split equally between the house and the option owner.  If you re-run the numbers using different ratios you will come up with different final values.

Roughly, if you split the profit on the sale of each option with P percent going to the house and 100 - P percent going to the option owner, the house will have made P percent of the final value of the object when the option price reaches the value of the object.

I did consider adjusting the percentage payout, but at 10% with the 5% split seems, and has proven, to be a nice benchmark.

But what if a random percentage payout was introduced, still guaranteeing a minimum 5% ROI? It'll be between 5% and 10%, cutting into the houses percentage. You may get 5.2%, 7.43%, 9.61%, etc. Granted, if all items were moved this way, now we're looking at only 25%, oppose to 50%, mathematically, available for the item at its closing--24 hours after final sale without a buyer.

To make it more interesting, only some items would include the random % payout, not disclosed at the beginning, only being revealed after the first purchase, or at some point early in the process being evident by the rounded up profit when sold.

[arklan]

i love the sound of this more and more. i'd love to help out if i can.

[John (John K.)]

Sounds great. Will post more input after some sleep.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Everything I penned to date on this thread was done soon prior to reading the following, but has no bearing on what I envision.

Bitcoin gem, version 1: the aftermath

Some of you might have seen the price of the bitcoin gem skyrocketing to 126 bitcoins 2 days ago. This first version of the bitcoin gem had a vicious flaw: there was no exit point. The price just went up and up and I did not want to produce a really big loser at the the end of the chain. That's why I stepped in, refunded the last 2 buyers and took down the website. Some say that was the dumbest move ever since I could have made a really big cut here. But it just did not feel right for me.

Of course, I would have loved to see how far the gem would go, especially since there was so much traffic coming in. Would it reach 500? 1,000? 10,000? Some of you suspected that 126 btc was the end of the line and that people wouldn't want to buy any more. I'd say it was just the other way round. Traffic to the site was about to explode and I guess the price would have exploded too. But I'm really happy that I could stop the gem at this point.

Bitcoin gem, version 2

I then thought about how I could eliminate the problem of runaway prices. Some suggested a upper limit, but I guess a hard limit just would not work because the closer the limit gets, the less people would still buy. So I implemented a random reset of the gem, the odds for a reset are 6.25%. Basically, any purchase can trigger a reset and can put the gems price back to the start. I also raised the profit for buyers (10%) and lowered the house edge (2%). This means you can make a 10% profit with winning odds of 93.75%.

So unless version 1 of the gem (where there was only one biiiiig loser), the new gem on average makes 15 winners and 1 loser. That feels much better for me. In the end, I'd like this to be a fun game.

I just reopened the bitcoin gem at http://www.bitcoingem.com. Your comments and suggestions are, as always, welcome.

This maxmint is a class-act. I like him.

If structured, then marketed correctly, a modified version of his idea has the potential of furthering Bitcoin awareness in a positive light.

[arklan]

agreed, mr gage.

[rickylford]

I'm quite versed in PHP and MySQL and have been designing/programming websites for about 10 years now. I'm slowly getting used to the bitcoint API, etc. used by blockchain.info. I'd like to be the first to pony up an offer to help out with the project. I have web hosting the site can go on, but at the moment, can't lay down any money towards any of the upfront costs of the project. Here's what I can offer:

- PHP/MySQL development
- Bitcoin API integration (it'll take me a little while to get it all down, but nonetheless, it'll get done)
- Website Hosting for the duration of the project, however long that turns out to be

I'm not interested in being paid up front for any work I do, as I want in on this for the long haul just as you do. If you'd like to discuss this in any further detail in private, please send me a PM or add me to Skype. My Skype username is the same as my username here on the forums.

Take care!
Ricky

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I'm quite versed in PHP and MySQL and have been designing/programming websites for about 10 years now. I'm slowly getting used to the bitcoint API, etc. used by blockchain.info. I'd like to be the first to pony up an offer to help out with the project. I have web hosting the site can go on, but at the moment, can't lay down any money towards any of the upfront costs of the project. Here's what I can offer:

- PHP/MySQL development
- Bitcoin API integration (it'll take me a little while to get it all down, but nonetheless, it'll get done)
- Website Hosting for the duration of the project, however long that turns out to be

I'm not interested in being paid up front for any work I do, as I want in on this for the long haul just as you do. If you'd like to discuss this in any further detail in private, please send me a PM or add me to Skype. My Skype username is the same as my username here on the forums.

Take care!
Ricky

For being a Newbie, you either have cred, or an excellent con. I'm leaning toward the former, disregarding the latter. PM sent.


Did I mention that the end buyer could recognize a better ROI than all previous buyers or, for that matter, the vig the site collects? Matter-in-fact, it can be programmed it to somewhat guarantee it.

[John (John K.)]

....
Did I mention that the end buyer could recognize a better ROI than all previous buyers or, for that matter, the vig the site collects? Matter-in-fact, it can be programmed it to somewhat guarantee it.

Is it due to the fact that tier based physical rewards exist? E.G: if the pot gets above 60 BTC the holder is guaranteed an ASIC, if 1000 BTC a good car etc?

[Phinnaeus Gage]

....
Did I mention that the end buyer could recognize a better ROI than all previous buyers or, for that matter, the vig the site collects? Matter-in-fact, it can be programmed it to somewhat guarantee it.

Is it due to the fact that tier based physical rewards exist? E.G: if the pot gets above 60 BTC the holder is guaranteed an ASIC, if 1000 BTC a good car etc?

I guess you'll have to wait till it's available to find out, John, for it's currently in development.

We will not be accepting any pre-orders until Batch #1 has been tested. (humor at Avalon's expense)

[edd]

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Exactly what I had in mind--smaller ticket items of value. The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value. Upon writing that last sentence, I now need to clarify. I'm not advocating fencing hot items, though it would work. Seriously, I want part of this action, with all profits going to administering the new Bitcoin 100.

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Who's going to offer the prize? Not me  

And it has to be quite big, at least $3,000 (155 BTC).

I have both aspects covered, and it's prizes (plural). I'm leaning toward ~$100 minimum prizes, but a little lower would work just a well. And yes, offering a house is not outside the realm of possibility, but a new car would be more challenging to procure, though a quality used car, or a classic, is not out of the question.

If I can't partner up with maxmint on this, then I would most definitely seek out edd, or go it alone, but prefer a partner to split the tasks, couple with having more cred for the project.

The name of the enterprise will exclude the word Bitcoin, but Bitcoin, of course, is the only payment option available that'll allows the endeavor to function. All other payment options on the planet fall short for a myriad of reasons.

~Bruno K~

Bruno, I would be honored to help out with this project if maxmint isn't interested. I'll be PMing you shortly after penning this reply.

As John pointed out, I think tiered prizes are the way to go. Start with something relatively inexpensive, like a t-shirt. Once the price exceeds a certain level, the prize would change accordingly. Personally, I'd love to see this car eventually awarded to some lucky player!

In addition, I don't believe it's necessary to guarantee the last player receives a prize equal to or greater than the investment. If the game should end while between tiers (e.g., before the second tier prize might be awarded but after the investment exceeds the value of a t-shirt), the final player would still receive the less valuable prize, have their website of choice permanently advertised/linked to on the site, and have the knowledge that their bitcoins are going to a good cause - Bitcoin100. As Bitcoinduit, bitciongem.com, SatoshiDoshi, and other ponzi based games have demonstrated, bitcoiners are more than willing to play even knowing there might not be any payoff whatsoever.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Exactly what I had in mind--smaller ticket items of value. The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value. Upon writing that last sentence, I now need to clarify. I'm not advocating fencing hot items, though it would work. Seriously, I want part of this action, with all profits going to administering the new Bitcoin 100.

i think it'd be wise to start smaller - a lower priced physical item, that is. i mean that car is what, 50k usd or something? why not an item for a few hundred first, or a couple grand? maybe a big tv?

Who's going to offer the prize? Not me  

And it has to be quite big, at least $3,000 (155 BTC).

I have both aspects covered, and it's prizes (plural). I'm leaning toward ~$100 minimum prizes, but a little lower would work just a well. And yes, offering a house is not outside the realm of possibility, but a new car would be more challenging to procure, though a quality used car, or a classic, is not out of the question.

If I can't partner up with maxmint on this, then I would most definitely seek out edd, or go it alone, but prefer a partner to split the tasks, couple with having more cred for the project.

The name of the enterprise will exclude the word Bitcoin, but Bitcoin, of course, is the only payment option available that'll allows the endeavor to function. All other payment options on the planet fall short for a myriad of reasons.

~Bruno K~

Bruno, I would be honored to help out with this project if maxmint isn't interested. I'll be PMing you shortly after penning this reply.

As John pointed out, I think tiered prizes are the way to go. Start with something relatively inexpensive, like a t-shirt. Once the price exceeds a certain level, the prize would change accordingly. Personally, I'd love to see this car eventually awarded to some lucky player!

In addition, I don't believe it's necessary to guarantee the last player receives a prize equal to or greater than the investment. If the game should end while between tiers (e.g., before the second tier prize might be awarded but after the investment exceeds the value of a t-shirt), the final player would still receive the less valuable prize, have their website of choice permanently advertised/linked to on the site, and have the knowledge that their bitcoins are going to a good cause - Bitcoin100. As Bitcoinduit, bitciongem.com, SatoshiDoshi, and other ponzi based games have demonstrated, bitcoiners are more than willing to play even knowing there might not be any payoff whatsoever.

Awaiting your PM, albeit my reply may be of a disappointment to you.

The key element I'm hoping to introduce is that the last person doesn't feel victimized. They may not feel bad if paying BTC1 for a BTC0.5 tee shirt, but doling out BTC10 for a BTC5 chainsaw would bother most. Granted, with the current model offered up by maxmint, the last guy gets nothing, whereas all those that came before him reaped, including the house. With the model I'm proposing, all concerns receive value. A randomized stop-point will be coded in so not to supercede between 10%-20% (inclusive) of any one item's value. Add an NPO to the mix, and you'll have a winner.

[Oldsport]

I'm producing a revamped version of this game. I've eliminated a lot of the issues that were a part of the original. It's going to be good, real good.

I'm excited to release it.

The picture will make sense, later.