Buy, sell, or hold?

[evolve]

you will have to get yourself quite a large bag of popcorn, can be waiting for half a year or longer.

Yeah, I highly doubt that.  I bet we'll see another multi-dollar drop within the next couple weeks, if not sooner.  I also think we will see another drop to single digit range by the end of the year.

I was here for the last bubble and crash (when the price reached $30 and dropped down to around $2), the sentiment around here is exactly the same as it was then, just with (mostly) new people.

I believe that more of us are short, than we care to admit.

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

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[yogi]

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

Bitfinex 

[evolve]

Huh, I didn't know another one had popped up....thanks, I'll have to check it out.

[notme]

you will have to get yourself quite a large bag of popcorn, can be waiting for half a year or longer.

Yeah, I highly doubt that.  I bet we'll see another multi-dollar drop within the next couple weeks, if not sooner.  I also think we will see another drop to single digit range by the end of the year.

I was here for the last bubble and crash (when the price reached $30 and dropped down to around $2), the sentiment around here is exactly the same as it was then, just with (mostly) new people.

I believe that more of us are short, than we care to admit.

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

The big difference between now and summer 2011 is a question of scale.  Mining power is up, users are way up, merchants are way up, exchanges are more diverse, press is better received (more sensible comments).  I see no reason for it to crash this time.  Now there are many more people with an interest in buying the dips before they turn into valleys.  If it goes up too fast, sure, but I don't see that happening yet.

[Beta-coiner1]

Afaic,All signs point to a holding pattern.Buying at such a high price seems too daring and selling right now could bring regret if the price does go higher.

[creativex]

"High price" is a relative term. USDs are total crap so as they(and other fiats) continually devalue due to endless printing, BTC prices that seemed high previously will become bargains. The same is true for PM prices.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

The "shorting" term is frequently misused on this forum, used instead of  plain old "selling".

[cypherdoc]

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

The "shorting" term is frequently misused on this forum, used instead of  plain old "selling".

yeah, its annoying.

[adamstgBit]

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

The "shorting" term is frequently misused on this forum, used instead of  plain old "selling".

yeah, its annoying.

 I thought we went over this, shorting doesn't need to be leveraged to be considered shorting.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I keep hearing people talk about shorting bitcoin, but how are you doing it without bitcoinica or similar leveraged trading platform? Or are you just shorting through private btc loans? Or is the term "shorting" just being misused on this forum?

The "shorting" term is frequently misused on this forum, used instead of  plain old "selling".

yeah, its annoying.

 I thought we went over this, shorting doesn't need to be leveraged to be considered shorting.

Yes I pointed this out before.  Apparently you still believe you are right.  I once again invite you to look at your own wikipedia link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shorting and see the "share borrowing"  and "share return" part in the schematic.   (no hard feelings Adam, but you are wrong on this one).

[evolve]

I thought we went over this, shorting doesn't need to be leveraged to be considered shorting.

Shorting is (by definition) selling a stock or commodity that you don't own, with a promise to buy it back at a later date with interest (hopefully at a lower price). How is this done without leverage?



source:
http://www.investopedia.com/university/shortselling/shortselling1.asp#axzz2JUcuT28I

[cypherdoc]

I think the important part is the forced buyback , most people here who claim "short" have no obligation to cover because they have usually sold coins they owned, not borrowed.

yes, this is a huge difference.  the psychological pressure to "cover" can be unbearable to the average investor and can help propel markets higher as well as provide support in down drafts.

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

It's not even close.  If you are caught on the wrong side of a naked short you are looking at huge losses. 
On the other hand, if you missed the train on an upmove after you just sold your bitcoins you don't have any losses, you just don't have the profit you otherwise would have had.

[notme]

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

It's not even close.  If you are caught on the wrong side of a naked short you are looking at huge losses. 
On the other hand, if you missed the train on an upmove after you just sold your bitcoins you don't have any losses, you just don't have the profit you otherwise would have had.

Serious question, not trying to be a smartass:

If borrowing the shares is required to call it shorting, why does the term naked short mean?  I thought a naked short was shorting without actually owning the asset to begin with, and therefore "regular" shorting would be shorting when you do start out owning the asset.  Am I mistaken?

[cypherdoc]

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

It's not even close.  If you are caught on the wrong side of a naked short you are looking at huge losses.  
On the other hand, if you missed the train on an upmove after you just sold your bitcoins you don't have any losses, you just don't have the profit you otherwise would have had.

Serious question, not trying to be a smartass:

If borrowing the shares is required to call it shorting, why does the term naked short mean?  I thought a naked short was shorting without actually owning the asset to begin with, and therefore "regular" shorting would be shorting when you do start out owning the asset.  Am I mistaken?

naked shorting is when you don't even have to borrow the share from a long to put on the short.

[notme]

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

It's not even close.  If you are caught on the wrong side of a naked short you are looking at huge losses.  
On the other hand, if you missed the train on an upmove after you just sold your bitcoins you don't have any losses, you just don't have the profit you otherwise would have had.

Serious question, not trying to be a smartass:

If borrowing the shares is required to call it shorting, why does the term naked short mean?  I thought a naked short was shorting without actually owning the asset to begin with, and therefore "regular" shorting would be shorting when you do start out owning the asset.  Am I mistaken?

naked shorting is when you don't even have to borrow the share from a long to put on the short.

WTF, how is that supposed to work?

[creativex]

Right. Like JPM does with paper silver. The paper silver contracts are counterfeit because there's no silver to back them.

WTF, how is that supposed to work?

It works by counterfeiting something. It's done with stocks by selling more shares than exist.

[notme]

Buy! Buy! Buy!

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/296709252351926273

[cypherdoc]

i do understand the conversation that took place earlier about "selling" essentially being equivalent to "shorting" but most professionals don't view it that way.

It's not even close.  If you are caught on the wrong side of a naked short you are looking at huge losses.  
On the other hand, if you missed the train on an upmove after you just sold your bitcoins you don't have any losses, you just don't have the profit you otherwise would have had.

Serious question, not trying to be a smartass:

If borrowing the shares is required to call it shorting, why does the term naked short mean?  I thought a naked short was shorting without actually owning the asset to begin with, and therefore "regular" shorting would be shorting when you do start out owning the asset.  Am I mistaken?

naked shorting is when you don't even have to borrow the share from a long to put on the short.

WTF, how is that supposed to work?

example:

i'm an account holder at Fidelity.  suppose, in aggregate, they have 100 customers who hold 100,000 shares of Apple.

i am a short seller.  for simplicity let's say i have enough money in my account to allow me to borrow and sell those 100,000 shares to buyers looking to go long.  if Fidelity is an ethical firm, they won't allow me to do that with any more than the 100,000 shares held at the firm, even if i want to short 150,000 shares.  if they aren't ethical, they might allow me to naked short the extra 50,000 shares.

in other words, sell what they don't have.

[notme]

Buy! Buy! Buy!

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/296709252351926273

Even better: http://garzikrants.blogspot.com/2013/01/once-upon-time-in-china-package-shipped.html