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Author Topic: So I made some calculations today  (Read 2971 times)
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March 19, 2016, 09:29:59 AM
 #21

I think that you can't compare world's wealth with Bitcoin's (or gold's) market cap. Many people are comparing Bitcoin with fiat money, so let's assume they are right (though I'm not sharing their opinion). I haven't made any research recently, but I believe that money in circulation around the world are rougly $75 trillion, which gives 10% for the gold.

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March 19, 2016, 02:15:29 PM
 #22

So I made some calculations today.
The total world's wealth is estimated around $241,000,000,000,000 (source)
I realized something else: you are comparing "money" and "wealth", while the two of those aren't directly related.
Suppose bitcoin would go up in value and be worth 100 times more. Market cap would be around 6 trillion dollars. You would say wealth went up, right? But in reality it only moves from one person to the other, as nothing more is produced because of it.
Just like increasing prices of all products does not make us more wealthy, even if our salary increases with it.
Owning more money would make me wealthier, but only if someone else loses money over it. Not if we all get more money.

The weird thing about money is: the more you think about it, the more you realize you don't understand what it is.

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March 20, 2016, 03:28:16 AM
 #23

I realized something else: you are comparing "money" and "wealth", while the two of those aren't directly related.
Suppose bitcoin would go up in value and be worth 100 times more. Market cap would be around 6 trillion dollars. You would say wealth went up, right? But in reality it only moves from one person to the other, as nothing more is produced because of it.

Actually, if Bitcoin's price goes up, wealth is created. It is not just because the last person poured in some money. It is because the valuation of all bitcoins has increased in people's eyes.
 
If Bitcoin goes to zero, wealth is destroyed.

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October 20, 2016, 08:32:00 PM
 #24

For something like this to happen, you need mass adoption of Bitcoin worldwide, 4 years is too short. Gold is acknowledged by everyone to be valuable, it is something tangible that even people in their 80's or older can easily recognize. Bitcoin is a new generation thing and at the moment attracts only people that are technologically savvy. When we've reached a point where the oldest person on earth was born after Bitcoin was created, Bitcoin will have been universally assimilated. Of course we might not need to wait that long  Wink



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October 20, 2016, 11:25:36 PM
 #25

Based on what can you conclude that it is very easy for bitcoin price to be 4-digits, these long number are far away from the bitcoin total market cap but I think that to have a 4-digit price bitcoin should be developed and adopted gradually time by time from different big merchants.
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October 20, 2016, 11:32:57 PM
 #26

Based on what can you conclude that it is very easy for bitcoin price to be 4-digits, these long number are far away from the bitcoin total market cap but I think that to have a 4-digit price bitcoin should be developed and adopted gradually time by time from different big merchants.
The 4-digit valuations would be possible if there were simply more people buying and less people selling (as it goes for basically all things to be honest), and because of this, while it is possible, we likely won't see it for still a little while yet. I believe we could see some of these things becoming a reality within the next five years, but I personally hope it doesn't take that long.
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October 21, 2016, 12:25:45 PM
 #27

Based on what can you conclude that it is very easy for bitcoin price to be 4-digits, these long number are far away from the bitcoin total market cap but I think that to have a 4-digit price bitcoin should be developed and adopted gradually time by time from different big merchants.
The 4-digit valuations would be possible if there were simply more people buying and less people selling (as it goes for basically all things to be honest), and because of this, while it is possible, we likely won't see it for still a little while yet. I believe we could see some of these things becoming a reality within the next five years, but I personally hope it doesn't take that long.

The $1000 price could only be reached when the block size to be incrased to more than 1MB or even higher.
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October 21, 2016, 12:45:33 PM
 #28

I think that you can't compare world's wealth with Bitcoin's (or gold's) market cap. Many people are comparing Bitcoin with fiat money, so let's assume they are right (though I'm not sharing their opinion). I haven't made any research recently, but I believe that money in circulation around the world are rougly $75 trillion, which gives 10% for the gold.

That would be a rough estimate of money being in circulation. Of course bitcoin has a small market capitalization compared to gold and fiat. Bitcoin just started, and the overall bitcoin in circulation is just limited on my opinion.Even if bitcoin will increased in value, still its minimal compared to fiat currency. Maybe they should add more bitcoins, but it could lower its value Wink

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October 21, 2016, 01:52:14 PM
 #29

+1

Bitcoin need at least 10-20 years to come into mainstream. Price should be +$20,000. But we'll see.

We will not have to wait that long. Things are developing very fast these days and if Bitcoin will become mainstream like other currencies that will happen much sooner, 5-7 years at most.
Altgough I'm not sure about the price, it seems a bit too excessive. It will go up a lot with time, that I agree. Still, that much....But like you've said we'll see.

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October 21, 2016, 02:33:58 PM
 #30

+1

Bitcoin need at least 10-20 years to come into mainstream. Price should be +$20,000. But we'll see.

We will not have to wait that long. Things are developing very fast these days and if Bitcoin will become mainstream like other currencies that will happen much sooner, 5-7 years at most.
Altgough I'm not sure about the price, it seems a bit too excessive. It will go up a lot with time, that I agree. Still, that much....But like you've said we'll see.

I think $20,000 is a reasonable price for Bticoin if it will be fully adopted. Actually the price might go much higher if most people would start trusting Bitcoin more than other currencies, but we can't guarantee that that will happen. But $20k might be reached due to wider adoption alone: people will start buying coins and since we can't make more of them than is made in a certain period of time, the natural response to the higher demand will be the rising of the price.

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October 21, 2016, 02:51:19 PM
 #31

Economics and the free market, and of course the price is depends from supply and demand. When Bitcoin enters to the mainstream, we can not predict, but we can certainly predict that at the time when all coins will be extracted  (about 21 million), run out the possibility of supply, and demand will grow = price will rise! ..and will rise very very fast! Wink

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October 21, 2016, 03:06:43 PM
 #32

+1

Bitcoin need at least 10-20 years to come into mainstream. Price should be +$20,000. But we'll see.

We will not have to wait that long. Things are developing very fast these days and if Bitcoin will become mainstream like other currencies that will happen much sooner, 5-7 years at most.
Altgough I'm not sure about the price, it seems a bit too excessive. It will go up a lot with time, that I agree. Still, that much....But like you've said we'll see.

I think $20,000 is a reasonable price for Bticoin if it will be fully adopted. Actually the price might go much higher if most people would start trusting Bitcoin more than other currencies, but we can't guarantee that that will happen. But $20k might be reached due to wider adoption alone: people will start buying coins and since we can't make more of them than is made in a certain period of time, the natural response to the higher demand will be the rising of the price.

There are a lot of ifs for that price to be attained. Achieving the trust of people is not easy. People trust gold (and dollars) because it has been around for a long time. Bitcoin was born yesterday,  Smiley

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October 28, 2016, 11:17:01 AM
 #33

+1

Bitcoin need at least 10-20 years to come into mainstream. Price should be +$20,000. But we'll see.

We will not have to wait that long. Things are developing very fast these days and if Bitcoin will become mainstream like other currencies that will happen much sooner, 5-7 years at most.
Altgough I'm not sure about the price, it seems a bit too excessive. It will go up a lot with time, that I agree. Still, that much....But like you've said we'll see.

I think $20,000 is a reasonable price for Bticoin if it will be fully adopted. Actually the price might go much higher if most people would start trusting Bitcoin more than other currencies, but we can't guarantee that that will happen. But $20k might be reached due to wider adoption alone: people will start buying coins and since we can't make more of them than is made in a certain period of time, the natural response to the higher demand will be the rising of the price.

There are a lot of ifs for that price to be attained. Achieving the trust of people is not easy. People trust gold (and dollars) because it has been around for a long time. Bitcoin was born yesterday,  Smiley

The new 0.13 Core Client has been released. The SegWit has been implemented. So the price could rise.
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October 28, 2016, 12:53:06 PM
 #34

Bitcoin is still new for many as most people don't even know what it is, while Gold is being used since ages and will get used till many more ages.
Where Gold which was barter-traded for things before, it is not easy for Bitcoins to take its place that easy.
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October 28, 2016, 01:31:06 PM
 #35

I did like to know such information, and its amazing how much gold does influence the global economy already, but focus into bitcoin, thats a new coin compared to fiat as well gold, in 7 years bitcoin has a small community and just some people do know and have bitcoin, soo lets give more 7 years to see what bitcoin had becamed against the others, i really believe bitcoin will reach gold value if not cross it.
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October 28, 2016, 01:39:15 PM
 #36

Bitcoin is still new for many as most people don't even know what it is, while Gold is being used since ages and will get used till many more ages.
Where Gold which was barter-traded for things before, it is not easy for Bitcoins to take its place that easy.

All that is true, but I'm sure it will all be replaced with bitcoin. Now that more and more people are looking for something that can be sold in a short time at a price that could rise with the fast way anyway. It is not owned by the gold so if we can promote bitcoin well then it would be a great advantage for all of us and the growth of the bitcoin
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October 28, 2016, 02:27:35 PM
 #37

+1

Bitcoin need at least 10-20 years to come into mainstream. Price should be +$20,000. But we'll see.

We will not have to wait that long. Things are developing very fast these days and if Bitcoin will become mainstream like other currencies that will happen much sooner, 5-7 years at most.
Altgough I'm not sure about the price, it seems a bit too excessive. It will go up a lot with time, that I agree. Still, that much....But like you've said we'll see.
Yeah speculation about price is pretty pointless to say the least, but I can agree that everything surrounding Bitcoin is going pretty good and fast.
Just the fact that only recently, Steam has adopted Bitcoin is pretty good news and I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon would offer Bitcoin support in the next couple of years.

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October 29, 2016, 10:06:14 AM
 #38

For something like this to happen, you need mass adoption of Bitcoin worldwide, 4 years is too short. Gold is acknowledged by everyone to be valuable, it is something tangible that even people in their 80's or older can easily recognize. Bitcoin is a new generation thing and at the moment attracts only people that are technologically savvy. When we've reached a point where the oldest person on earth was born after Bitcoin was created, Bitcoin will have been universally assimilated. Of course we might not need to wait that long  Wink

Many people already have a lot of cryptocurrency. Now we announce that crypto currency is like shares of the company "the future of Money", and start to trade them on the exchange for real dollars. Set the market price. She's growing up, because wanting to touch the money of the future a lot, and handed out for free 25 coins every 10 minutes to one, and still have to solve puzzles in General, it is easier to buy.
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October 29, 2016, 10:11:46 AM
 #39

if this world was already modern from when gold was known or atleast bitcoin and gold known at the same time,then both will have competition,it's actually just a little bit not fair if you're comparing gold to bitcoin if it's about total market cap whilst gold exist from thousands year ago

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Barbut
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October 29, 2016, 10:20:47 AM
 #40

I like this kind of calculations, and this one shows how much more bitcoin need work to go up. There is a lot of space for bitcoin to make progress, in future with this tempo bitcoin can worth as gold, lets not make any predictions when will that happen, important thing is that is possible to happen one day.
ETH achieved a lot for the time they are here, more then many other coins, their fast grow maybe can continue in next year. Who will say that, I think its good for bitcoin to have a little competition in other alt coins. That is always a good thing, that can make bitcoin even stronger one day.
 



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