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Question: What's gonna happen to LTC?
Big price increase - 7 (13.2%)
Price increase - 13 (24.5%)
Modest price increase - 6 (11.3%)
Price will not change - 7 (13.2%)
Modest price decrease - 4 (7.5%)
Price decrease - 5 (9.4%)
Big price decrease - 11 (20.8%)
Total Voters: 53

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Author Topic: First ASIC released; What do you think will happen to LTC price?  (Read 1132 times)
tacotime
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January 31, 2013, 02:26:44 AM
 #1

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140099.0

What do you think?

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DryPowder
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January 31, 2013, 04:00:42 AM
 #2

Oh Lord!!! ASIC Shocked; I hope that the Butterfly hastes his pre orders.  Roll Eyes

For LTC and other Alt. crypto currencies is good … more velocity and cheaper BTC, but you need to wait a whole year or more to see what effects cause in Alt. (assuming that ASIC is arrive and is operating in BTC) and depending on where the GPU artillery goes. We see …  Huh

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January 31, 2013, 04:03:37 AM
 #3

I predict the price of LTC will tank when ASICs arrive and GPU miners switch to litecoin.  It will be similar to when the merged mining of NMC started and bitcoin miners who acquired NMC just sold immediately, pushing the price down.  Currently, most people who mine LTC care about litecoin and hold some, but after ASICs hit, there will be many miners who are just looking for revenues in BTC or USD and will sell their mined litecoins immediately.

The only chance of a boost to litecoin price is if ASICs somehow destabilized the bitcoin network and there are credible risks of a 51% attack.
I don't think the market has fully priced this in, so the price should fall as ASICs come online in the next few months.

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DiCE1904
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January 31, 2013, 04:07:24 AM
 #4

as long as those GPU miners who decide to switch to LTC ALSO create some sort of demand the price will be just fine

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January 31, 2013, 04:57:56 AM
 #5

My guess is not much, this is not specific to LTC, it's to all altcoins.

In my observations the altcoins must stand on their own merits, not as safe harbor of obsolete technologies. You can create another altcoin of yet another hash function resisting GPU/ASIC, but at the end of day you cannot fight economics fundamentals. Obsolete miners have nowhere to hide from the onslaught of technology advancement and profitability would drop regardless of altcoins (as proven when bitcoin profitability dropped by half last November). Market has spoken that it doesn't need or want everyone to be miners just like the case with gold. You have to earn the living that the society needs and wants, if everyone mine for a living there would be no market and no society.

On the other hand, debut of ASIC will make both bitcoin and litecoin more secure against 51% attack.
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January 31, 2013, 05:45:22 AM
 #6

I have to disagree Sunny.

PPC still uses bitcoin SHA256. So PPC has a good chance of getting mined the fuck out of it.

Litecoin does still stand currently as the ONLY active alt chain that isnt using SHA-256.

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January 31, 2013, 05:51:38 AM
 #7

I voted slight increase for two reasons.

Seems like litecoin is gaining on bitcoin in terms of % in fiat value if you look at the graphs closely.

Also I would prefer a steady slow rise rather than a huge giant spike up.

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Sunny King
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January 31, 2013, 06:20:38 AM
 #8

I have to disagree Sunny.

PPC still uses bitcoin SHA256. So PPC has a good chance of getting mined the fuck out of it.

Litecoin does still stand currently as the ONLY active alt chain that isnt using SHA-256.

It's just my observation from bitcoin's halving last November. The profitability dropped by half within days for both LTC and PPC. So my guess is that even for ltc's asic resistance it couldn't provide much of a safe harbor for gpu miners due to simple economics.

But no hard feelings, ltc still has by far the largest trading market among all altcoins. ASIC resistance may still prove useful to widen adoption, but I believe gpu miners's fate has been sealed. I could be wrong though  Wink

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January 31, 2013, 06:31:14 AM
 #9

I have to disagree Sunny.

PPC still uses bitcoin SHA256. So PPC has a good chance of getting mined the fuck out of it.

Litecoin does still stand currently as the ONLY active alt chain that isnt using SHA-256.

It's just my observation from bitcoin's halving last November. The profitability dropped by half within days for both LTC and PPC. So my guess is that even for ltc's asic resistance it couldn't provide much of a safe harbor for gpu miners due to simple economics.

But no hard feelings, ltc still has by far the largest trading market among all altcoins. ASIC resistance may still prove useful to widen adoption, but I believe gpu miners's fate has been sealed. I could be wrong though  Wink



We live in interesting times for sure.

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January 31, 2013, 08:37:33 AM
 #10

I have to disagree Sunny.

PPC still uses bitcoin SHA256. So PPC has a good chance of getting mined the fuck out of it.

Litecoin does still stand currently as the ONLY active alt chain that isnt using SHA-256.

It's just my observation from bitcoin's halving last November. The profitability dropped by half within days for both LTC and PPC. So my guess is that even for ltc's asic resistance it couldn't provide much of a safe harbor for gpu miners due to simple economics.

But no hard feelings, ltc still has by far the largest trading market among all altcoins. ASIC resistance may still prove useful to widen adoption, but I believe gpu miners's fate has been sealed. I could be wrong though  Wink


+1 the Bitcoin mining economy is far, far, larger then any of the alt-coins. If all the GPU miners really were to move to mining alt-coins, they would be doing so to sell for BTC. If the market is efficient, and assuming hash power is evenly distributed then the price of alt coins should skyrocket as they becoming incredibly difficult to mine. However if the hash power is not evenly distributed, which it most likely will not be- a few very large GPU mining farms + everyone else, then I would expect to see the GPU mine farms crush the price by dumping relentlessly in an attempt to pay their rent and electricity bills.

That said, most likely a fair number of miners will cut their losses, sell their equipment and upgrade to ASIC. I think very few large scale GPU miners have any interest in Alt-coins. 

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February 14, 2013, 09:56:46 PM
 #11

Bump thread for second ASIC being released, though non-publically;  you can see ASICMINER as user 67117 on BTCGuild right now (2+ TH/s) https://www.btcguild.com/halloffame.php

That number should be increasing soon

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