When will bitcoin go to 400?

[Neyo]

It would be just a 13fold increase from the previous level, but it seems quite unlikely to me.

[CNMOH]

I doubt it will even reach $100. But then again, people said the same thing about it reaching dollar parity.

[TheVirus]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

[mp420]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

[TheVirus]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

Joe's Web Shack accepts Bitcoins for hosting services. He wants 3 BTC for a service comparable to $100 USD. Given the current value of the BTC, it's a good deal.

2 days later, exchanges are shutdown and people have very few options of converting BTC into USD. Joe's Web Shack no longer accepts BTC since their value is lost and there's no way to pay the bills with BTCs.

Govt shuts down some BTC exchanges -> BTC value plummets -> Companies accepting them either overprice their goods for BTC or stop taking them -> BTCs are now worthless. It won't be a momentary collapse, it's naive to think so.

[Findeton]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

Joe's Web Shack accepts Bitcoins for hosting services. He wants 3 BTC for a service comparable to $100 USD. Given the current value of the BTC, it's a good deal.

2 days later, exchanges are shutdown and people have very few options of converting BTC into USD. Joe's Web Shack no longer accepts BTC since their value is lost and there's no way to pay the bills with BTCs.

Govt shuts down some BTC exchanges -> BTC value plummets -> Companies accepting them either overprice their goods for BTC or stop taking them -> BTCs are now worthless. It won't be a momentary collapse, it's naive to think so.

It's a new currency, it will have to fight to survive.

[TheVirus]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

Joe's Web Shack accepts Bitcoins for hosting services. He wants 3 BTC for a service comparable to $100 USD. Given the current value of the BTC, it's a good deal.

2 days later, exchanges are shutdown and people have very few options of converting BTC into USD. Joe's Web Shack no longer accepts BTC since their value is lost and there's no way to pay the bills with BTCs.

Govt shuts down some BTC exchanges -> BTC value plummets -> Companies accepting them either overprice their goods for BTC or stop taking them -> BTCs are now worthless. It won't be a momentary collapse, it's naive to think so.

It's a new currency, it will have to fight to survive.

Of course it does, however, Bitcoins (currently) have no one in power that is supporting it. A few hundred people will do nothing to stop Congress from passing a bill to make accepting Bitcoins as a payment illegal. If Bitcoins were backed by Bank of America or some other ungodly conglomerate, then we'd have a fighting chance.

[imperi]

October or November. Historically Bitcoins have doubled in value every 30-32 days, if my math is correct.

[TheVirus]

October or November. Historically Bitcoins have doubled in value every 30-32 days, if my math is correct.

That was before the government caught wind of it. Now that they have and now that more people know about it, prices will go up faster but also cause more heat from the government.

[imperi]

October or November. Historically Bitcoins have doubled in value every 30-32 days, if my math is correct.

That was before the government caught wind of it. Now that they have and now that more people know about it, prices will go up faster but also cause more heat from the government.

There was always anticipation of government action, and yet the prices still managed to climb this quickly. In fact this latest 3x spike happened after government officials started talking to reporters about it negatively.

[Findeton]

Of course it does, however, Bitcoins (currently) have no one in power that is supporting it. A few hundred people will do nothing to stop Congress from passing a bill to make accepting Bitcoins as a payment illegal. If Bitcoins were backed by Bank of America or some other ungodly conglomerate, then we'd have a fighting chance.

They can't just ouwlaw it. They can only try, but it's going to be a pain in the ass for those legislators willing to ban bitcoins, as it would also threaten other "legit" electronic currencies.

Anyways, yeah I know US is a corporate dictatorship. I'm european but I know that if it's banned in US it will affect legislation in other countries.

[Bazil]

If there isn't any action by the US government against bitcoin by then, I think bitcoin will reach parity with gold by the once by the end of the year.

[nemo]

If the government made accepting bitcoins illegal it will be the greatest thing that could have happened to bitcoin. Look what it did for reefer.

[Dobrodav]

I am don`t know when it will be 400 $, and don`t even want to guess. But when i am understood , that even now,  1 $ is worse  3 bitcents, i am laughed for half of hour.

[imperi]

I would LOVE to have underground illegal crypt-currency. That would literally make my life. That would just seal the deal with my persona, might as well boot right into the MAtrix.

[TheVirus]

If the government made accepting bitcoins illegal it will be the greatest thing that could have happened to bitcoin. Look what it did for reefer.

The only difference is that pot is a tangible good. What good is a virtual currency if you can't spend it? If no one will accept Bitcoins as payment then they're useless. If the government outlawed Bitcoins it would pretty much be the end of it. I feel like I'm repeating myself.

Bitcoins are made an illegal currency and companies can no longer exchange BTC for USD. Companies no longer accept BTC. BTC prices plummet. How hard is that to understand?

[jspielberg]

I actually see a lot of similarity between cannabis and bitcoin. 

The fact that Hearst's timber interests were threatened in the 1930s by the easy with which to make paper out of hemp vs. wood pulp eventually led to the criminalization of cannabis.  His newspapers printing articles to cause panic and hysteria didn't hurt either. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_history_of_cannabis_in_the_United_States

Powerful interests are aligned against bitcoin. 

When it comes right down to it, I think most people don't really care about currency.  They don't particularly care about quantitative easing or deficit spending.  All they really care about is their own comfort.  If it increases their comfort then it may have a chance of going to 400.  If it doesn't we will be lucky to see it hold at 40.

[RomertL]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

Joe's Web Shack accepts Bitcoins for hosting services. He wants 3 BTC for a service comparable to $100 USD. Given the current value of the BTC, it's a good deal.

2 days later, exchanges are shutdown and people have very few options of converting BTC into USD. Joe's Web Shack no longer accepts BTC since their value is lost and there's no way to pay the bills with BTCs.

Govt shuts down some BTC exchanges -> BTC value plummets -> Companies accepting them either overprice their goods for BTC or stop taking them -> BTCs are now worthless. It won't be a momentary collapse, it's naive to think so.

It's a new currency, it will have to fight to survive.

If mighty US gov. seriously tries to kill the Bitcoin, I say it's a good thing for two reasons: 1: They will fail and look stupid which will probably refrain many other governments  from trying (ok, governments in general might not be known for learning from others mistakes, but still...) 2: The Bitcoin, surviving a attack from the worlds most powerful government, will look a lot more solid and reliable...

A government can never stop bitcoins entirely, for that they would need to seize all hdd:s and servers in the whole world that store bitcoins. That, of course, will never happen. What they can do is banning all the the sites that exchange bitcoins or accept it for payments like mentioned. That is, those based in the country of the government in question, in this case US. If most other countries act like US, we will end up exchanging bitcoins in the same countries we today use for "anonymous" offshore-banking and webhosting: Isles of man, Panama, Cayman Islands, Channel islands etc. For the user, the physical location doesn't really matter so this will not change much. There will always be countries where it's legal. It will be less attractive with less places that accepts it, sure, but far from useless. But that's kind of a worst case scenario, the bitcoin will probably be legal in many countries. Not that the governments want it but many of us lives in democracies, and the people will want it. But gov'ts will of course use scare-tactics and propaganda to change the general opinion. I'm seeing them using three arguments: 1: the It's-mostly-used-for-illegal-activities-arguments, 2: The deflation argument, and 3: The-governmen's-lack-of-control-arguments (although that is the beauty of it for many people). So let's see if the people buys it...

 

[nemo]

Why is it that bitocins are so awesome, yet the government wants it to be illegal? That sounds exactly like cannabis to me. Make it illegal. Let it go viral. Bitcoins utility is so great that confidence could fall to less than pennies and come back ten fold. We've already got the guns. You didn't think we'd make it to Walmart, did you?

[TheVirus]

If the exchange markets stay open then the price will likely continue to grow, but if they get shut down (which is likely to happen in this world we live in), then the prices will plummet.

They will plummet at least momentarily due to decrease in fungibility, but BTCs will continue to be traded irrespective of whether there are bitcoin exchanges around or not. So, lack of exchanges won't be the end of bitcoin, or necessarily place any fundamental cap on the value of BTC.

Lack of exchanges would make it a lot harder to determine the exchange value of bitcoins against fiat currencies, however.

Joe's Web Shack accepts Bitcoins for hosting services. He wants 3 BTC for a service comparable to $100 USD. Given the current value of the BTC, it's a good deal.

2 days later, exchanges are shutdown and people have very few options of converting BTC into USD. Joe's Web Shack no longer accepts BTC since their value is lost and there's no way to pay the bills with BTCs.

Govt shuts down some BTC exchanges -> BTC value plummets -> Companies accepting them either overprice their goods for BTC or stop taking them -> BTCs are now worthless. It won't be a momentary collapse, it's naive to think so.

It's a new currency, it will have to fight to survive.

If mighty US gov. seriously tries to kill the Bitcoin, I say it's a good thing for two reasons: 1: They will fail and look stupid which will probably refrain many other governments  from trying (ok, governments in general might not be known for learning from others mistakes, but still...) 2: The Bitcoin, surviving a attack from the worlds most powerful government, will look a lot more solid and reliable...

A government can never stop bitcoins entirely, for that they would need to seize all hdd:s and servers in the whole world that store bitcoins. That, of course, will never happen. What they can do is banning all the the sites that exchange bitcoins or accept it for payments like mentioned. That is, those based in the country of the government in question, in this case US. If most other countries act like US, we will end up exchanging bitcoins in the same countries we today use for "anonymous" offshore-banking and webhosting: Isles of man, Panama, Cayman Islands, Channel islands etc. For the user, the physical location doesn't really matter so this will not change much. There will always be countries where it's legal. It will be less attractive with less places that accepts it, sure, but far from useless. But that's kind of a worst case scenario, the bitcoin will probably be legal in many countries. Not that the governments want it but many of us lives in democracies, and the people will want it. But gov'ts will of course use scare-tactics and propaganda to change the general opinion. I'm seeing them using three arguments: 1: the It's-mostly-used-for-illegal-activities-arguments, 2: The deflation argument, and 3: The-governmen's-lack-of-control-arguments (although that is the beauty of it for many people). So let's see if the people buys it...

 

Your whole assumption is that the government will fail. There is no proof, either way, as to whether or not an attempt to ban will succeed or not. If there are limited routes for people to exchange BTC for other currencies and it is not a simple process, no one will want to invest time/money in it. No one is going to want to jump through hoops to use a currency.