At 10x difficulty I can't create a scenario where mining is even close to profitable to anyone that is not getting their miners at cost. Will we see a dip in asic miner prices or how does the community survive?
"Profitable" or "my unrealistic expectations is to break even in 2 weeks and make 487947298721472987892472% profit per year"?
Capital Cost: $1500 + $500 (unit plus one module upgrade to improve efficiency)
Electrical cost (1 year): 800W * 24 * 365 /1000 * $0.08 = $560
Total lifecycle cost (assumming 12 month life): $2,560.64
88GH/s @ difficulty 30M (~10x current) = 538.2 BTC per year.
$2,560.64 / 538.2 BTC = $4.75 per BTC. If you could pay me $2,560 right now and I would pay give you 538.2 BTC over the next year would you? Of course you would. If you think difficulty will stop at 10x current you are basically saying once it gets there people will say "hmm only 400% profit per year, nope I don't think so". Of course difficulty will go way way beyond that.
Even at difficulty 100M (~33x current), 88GH/s = 161.4 BTC per year
$2,560.64 / 161.4 BTC = $15.80 per BTC. I still think thousands of people will take that deal.
Note both those numbers assume difficulty jumps instantly. In reality since difficulty will rise over time the profitability is even higher. Granted the ASIC might not be cost effective for a year so there is the risk element but the risk has never stopped miners before. Anyone thinking difficulty is only going to rise 2x or 5x is simply dellusional. Even "only 10x" is likely way too optimistic. Difficulty 100M is likely the min realistic value and if BFL power efficiency is true and they can ship in volume ... 200M or higher is a very real possibility.