Core have been derelict in their duties.

[rizzlarolla]

It's been 2 weeks, will you allow me a couple more?

I explained previously why I think a "fee market" is not compatible with "full" blocks. (i mean full, not nearly full)
Spare capacity is needed to deal with busy times in a consistent fee market, or it becomes a "hostage market".

And why plan to build up fees now, only to collapse fees with the "extra" capacity of segwit in a few months.
That is boom and bust.
Also Core want miners to allow segwit cheap fees?

So, we "need" more capacity, and you have a problem with Segwit providing it? Personally I'd prefer that there were no Segwit discount. As a user, I want fees to rise. But Core is doing what Classic supporters have long asked -- finding compromise due to the demand for cheaper fees.

I do have a bit of a problem with segwit, but that is not the issue here. It's the period from now untill segwit, (or not) that is relevant here.

Blocks are nearly full now, but not really full. Big difference.
On Bitcoin's present trajectory blocks will be really full before segwit. (as that's months away, if ever)
Or bitcoin adoption is kind of failing/slowing/deterred anyway?
Can that really be orderly or wanted by users.

Full blocks are not a problem. Bitcoin works, and will work, as intended. Any evidence for the bolded? The fact that BTCUSD price is UP 82% year over year suggests that adoption is not failing.

I am saying adoption is growing, not falling. (yet) Or there would not be a problem.
So, if blocks become full, (due to continued adoption) high fees will be needed to drive away users.
If high fees do not drive away users, and adoption continues, still everyone cannot fit into blocks, causing delayed and unpredictable tx's.
Delays will then drive away users.
Either fees or delays will drive away users. If the average tx rate goes over 1mb per 10 min, (due to continued adoption) something has got to give.

I'm not prepared to be held hostage in the near future, unable to move my coins in the next general panic/rush.
Unable to move my coins in any predictable time frame.

What = being held hostage? Being forced to pay 5 cents for a transaction? 10 cents? What exactly entitles you to virtually free transactions, anyway?

I do not want free tx's, I want standard(ish) fees I can plan for, as I have said earlier.
In a panic or busy time, if a rush is on, if the mempool grows rapidly, you will need to spend far more than 10 cents to have any hope of moving coins.
But worse, more likely your coins will be stuck in the mempool for days as panic goes on and your fee is over bid.
That is when you will be hostaged.

All I see happening while we wait for segwit are delays, high fees, inability to move funds with any predictability,
panic/loss of faith.

I don't see any of that. If anything, these supposed "horror stories" of stuck transactions are only becoming less prevalent. Fee estimation is no longer some abstract concept, and people are not as clueless as they used to be. You are repeating the same FUD that Gavin and Hearn repeated a year ago, yet none of it has come to fruition. I think you should stop repeating this fear mongering.

Time is bringing that day closer.
Were Gavin and Hearn a year too early. Should they have waited untill it was a problem?
I guess they were looking ahead to now, (and the next month or two) trying to plan. (foresight?)

Followed by HF to Classic as the only viable option for quick consensus.
(didn't satoshi foresee this kind of rapid consensus under pressure.?)

Quick consensus? Good luck. I sure as hell won't be installing Classic. I highly doubt BTCC, Bitfury and Kano will either.

That is in the balance. If tx's do gridlock, panic, HF.
Maybe not, but Core will be pushing people that way for sure.
What other option is there?
Wait for segwit. (which could be delayed, slow to adopt, etc.)
If a perma backlog occurs, Core are planless. Powerless.

Core don't have a (publicised) plan B to avert such a situation.
Core will be handing it to Classic.
Maybe it will all be fine for Core.
Core supporters could stop using bitcoin for the next few months, that would help.

What situation? XT and Classic have been trying to force a hard fork for nearly a year. Bitcoin has functioned perfectly well during that entire time, and fees are still incredibly cheap. There is no crisis currently, nor is there one on the horizon. And these "OMG STUCK TRANSACTIONS" FUD is only getting less effective.

A full block backlog situation.
There is no crisis currently I agree.
But it is coming "at some point". For certain if adoption is continuing, or as a possibly due to a panic.
(i also suspect it could happen very quickly and permanently)
The question is will segwit arrive in time, (before gridlock) to avert panic/frustration.
(BTW, an increasing hash rate is finding "quicker" blocks at the moment, giving the effect of a larger block size - more tx's per second. that wont always be so. diff adjustment in 4 days may change that)

Obviously not going to be a popular opinion.
But Core could have had a plan B ready and publicised.

They don't need a "Plan B" because there are no viable alternatives to Core, nor is there any crisis. If Segwit can't achieve consensus, status quo prevails.

I think they do need a plan B. I think they should have foreseen this possibility.
Even if it was only a "possible" outcome.
It is certainly going to happen in time. segwit is now under pressure to deliver, even more.
A plan could have been in place. Simple.

[rizzlarolla]

It's been 2 weeks, will you allow me a couple more?

Yes. If you would rather rush a solution than properly test it for invalid reasons (greed?), then you've come to the wrong place. Changes like these have to go through extensive testing.

Where did I say I want to rush anything? I said it is too late now to "plan"
If Core did have a plan in place for this situation, there would be no need to rush anything (segwit maybe, hf to classic maybe) and no need to worry about gridlock.

And why plan to build up fees now, only to collapse fees with the "extra" capacity of segwit in a few months.

The added capacity of Segwit is a bonus, the main idea behind it is solving transaction malleability.

Fine, doesn't address my question.

Blocks are nearly full now, but not really full. Big difference.

A lot of those transactions are spam, you will get a different percentage depending on who you ask and what criteria they've used.

As you say, spam is hard to define.
Standard fee payers have never had much to fear from spam.

On Bitcoin's present trajectory blocks will be really full before segwit. (as that's months away, if ever)
Or bitcoin adoption is kind of failing/slowing/deterred anyway?

Bitcoin is not experiencing any issues at the time, nor should the users be. If you are experiencing issues with transactions (e.g. delays) then it is usually your own fault.

I agree,
But as I said, "On Bitcoin's present trajectory blocks will be.."

[Lauda]

Where did I say I want to rush anything? I said it is too late now to "plan"

That's the impression that one gets after mentioning those 'two weeks'.

If Core did have a plan in place for this situation, there would be no need to rush anything (segwit maybe, hf to classic maybe) and no need to worry about gridlock.

You can't really know if they have a plan or not, unless they explicitly state so.

Fine, doesn't address my question.

The fees aren't really 'built up'.

As you say, spam is hard to define.
Standard fee payers have never had much to fear from spam.

Real transactions are hard to define as well.

I agree,
But as I said, "On Bitcoin's present trajectory blocks will be.."

My bad. Do you have evidence that supports this 'trajectory'?

[rizzlarolla]

My bad. Do you have evidence that supports this 'trajectory'?

Only that blocks weren't very full a while ago, then more recently they got fuller, now they are nearly full.
I'm guessing next stop is full.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[hv_]

Blocks 'full'  --> Txs Fees high -->  Mass Adoption down -->  Discussion high -->  BTC Market Price  down --> .... ? (will lost users come back?)

all that correlates...

Core is still the best team, but markets will (do already) decide in the end.


I only buy into the 21 Mio, the decentralization and mass adoption.

If only one fails - I'd go.

[Lauda]

Only that blocks weren't very full a while ago, then more recently they got fuller, now they are nearly full.
I'm guessing next stop is full.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

That is a bad metric for measuring the 'fullness' of the blocks. You're looking at transaction per block which tend to vary due to the average size of each transaction. As previously said, in order to argue whether blocks are indeed almost full you will have to define what real world transactions or what spam is and make an analysis based on that. Otherwise, one could easily manipulate you into thinking what one wants.

Blocks 'full'  --> Txs Fees high -->  Mass Adoption down -->  Discussion high -->  BTC Market Price  down --> .... ? (will lost users come back?)

How high do 'TX fees' have to be in order for 'mass adoption' to go down? Everyone keeps saying this, yet nobody gives exact numbers. Should we panic if the average fee is 15 cents? 

[hv_]

Blocks 'full'  --> Txs Fees high -->  Mass Adoption down -->  Discussion high -->  BTC Market Price  down --> .... ? (will lost users come back?)

How high do 'TX fees' have to be in order for 'mass adoption' to go down? Everyone keeps saying this, yet nobody gives exact numbers. Should we panic if the average fee is 15 cents? 

You're asking the right (complex) question. There exists some good quant / financial engineers out there just doing correlation matrices all the day (e.g. for FX pairs or other assets )  - and first start point is the market price paired against fiat AND other alts...

Would be nice to see that done by some institution- good for a master thesis.

[rizzlarolla]

I was clearly wrong on my 2-4 weeks.
we are right on the edge now, I think.

As bitcoin stagnates in the name of Core purity, others rise.

Untested segwit promised to be rushed in soon maybe.

[MicroGuy]

Core have been derelict in their duties by showing little foresight around the looming full block situation.

Perhaps the understatement of the century!

~~



~~

At altcoin developer with that amount of foresight would be belly up in a matter of days.

[hv_]

Core have been derelict in their duties by showing little foresight around the looming full block situation.

Perhaps the understatement of the century!

~~



~~

At altcoin developer with that amount of foresight would be belly up in a matter of days.

You need to be upper class now (not classic) to be part in such a block (=club) , sorry....

[pereira4]

Core is doing a fantastic job by not giving up to the cries of armchair coders about how the system will collapse if we don't raise the blocksize when they say so. Meanwhile they have come up with great stuff like SegWit and more.

[rizzlarolla]

OP "There will simply be no opportunity for miners to clear the mempool when blocks are full if people don't stop using bitcoin.
If panic tx'ing ever set in, gridlock could easily turn to total overwhelm of network. (it will quickly turn into that anyway)
When the above starts happening, in a week or two, It will very quickly become chaos."

Ok, I was weeks out, but here comes that Chaos.
I don't think many realise how quickly this will now escalate.

I still wonder, do Core have a Bail out plan? (just in case i'm right)

Best case, segwit will not have any effect on block space for at least (many?) months. (please enlighten me Greg)
No Core block increase for at least a year. (ditto)

We are about to experience Cores dynamic fee market.
I reckon not many people are going to like this.
Core will lose trust.

The chaos wont destroy Bitcoin. (it will only be temporary)
I may destroy Core.

Out of the chaos will come sudden consensus.

[rizzlarolla]

Over 40mb mempool,
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions


"I don't think many realise how quickly this will now escalate."

Get out of this one Greg.

Sudden block size patch?
Fiddle with the difficulty?
Fork to Classic?

[jonald_fyookball]

Core is guilty of having 0 communications with the community.
they are simply unwilling to hear our concerns

I think communication was lacking some time ago, but they have made major improvements there. Join the new announcements mailing list: https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/03/15/announcement-list/ Talk to devs on IRC, Slack or the dev mailing list, or through bitcoincore.org. Several devs are active on Twitter and Reddit and receptive to discussion of the issues.

Regarding your concerns, they released a roadmap regarding capacity increases 3 months ago: https://bitcoincore.org/en/2015/12/21/capacity-increase/ And they are making strides with it.

fuck core and fuck their roadmap.  they should have increased the block size a year ago.

[hv_]

Over 40mb mempool,
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions


"I don't think many realise how quickly this will now escalate."

Get out of this one Greg.

Sudden block size patch?
Fiddle with the difficulty?
Fork to Classic?

Looks rather like the soft minded small forkers do not dare any further actions and feel responsible for some price rebouncings driven by  Chinese gamblers who will soon take all over , the coding as well ...

[Carlton Banks]

fuck core and fuck their roadmap.  they should have increased the block size a year ago.

Lol, let's not go there jonald. You know how ineffective you are, we all do. You're a brave shill returning to this forum. Leave, before we all make you feel like leaving. You know the drill.

[jonald_fyookball]

fuck core and fuck their roadmap.  they should have increased the block size a year ago.

Lol, let's not go there jonald. You know how ineffective you are, we all do. You're a brave shill returning to this forum. Leave, before we all make you feel like leaving. You know the drill.

i'll leave when i want to and not a second earlier, faggot.

[rizzlarolla]

fuck core and fuck their roadmap.  they should have increased the block size a year ago.

Lol, let's not go there jonald. You know how ineffective you are, we all do. You're a brave shill returning to this forum. Leave, before we all make you feel like leaving. You know the drill.

i'll leave when i want to and not a second earlier, faggot.

Your welcome.

Does Carltons Closed minded, blind faith remind you of the neucoin days?

[Carlton Banks]

fuck core and fuck their roadmap.  they should have increased the block size a year ago.

Lol, let's not go there jonald. You know how ineffective you are, we all do. You're a brave shill returning to this forum. Leave, before we all make you feel like leaving. You know the drill.

i'll leave when i want to and not a second earlier, faggot.

yep, just like I said, we can influence those poor little feelings of yours, and did so rather effectively in the past



Because you're just another low-rent shill with zero talent for the job. And you know it. That's why you left after you failed to subvert Bitcoin the last time.

[rizzlarolla]

"Block's should not be too full to stop people using bitcoin with good user experience"

Week's left? Day's?
I hope the code is ready .

I'm ready.