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Author Topic: AI evolved algorithmic BTC price prediction  (Read 1338 times)
kakobrekla
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Psi laju, karavani prolaze.


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February 04, 2013, 03:37:21 PM
 #1

More for fun than anything, but might as well share here.

Using Critticall, only btc/usd rate per difficulty change as input data.

Running for about 36hrs on two i7 cores. (which is not really much for that many data points)




Some comments from -assets;
Quote
02:44.06 ( pizzaman1337 ) kakobreklaa: red line seems much more likely... (plus more noise)
Quote
09:41.29 ( mircea_popescu ) tbh i think algo 1 is better.
09:42.01 ( mircea_popescu ) at least on the long term


Feel free to continue the evolution from this point on, or start from scratch. It may bring out different results, but will be getting closer and closer as time progresses. I'll leave this running for a while then change the data sets and include some support sequences as well. Usefulness of this is limited, but it sure is interesting.

Code:
$DECLAREINT sample_size sample_size_test zero i j predicted cumulative_discord observation prediction discord infinity thousand minus_one seq_a_size seq_b_size seq_c_size seq_d_size seq_e_size seq_f_size seq_g_size seq_h_size seq_i_size seq_j_size seq_k_size seq_l_size seq_m_size seq_n_size x y z w q r s t u v
$DIMENSION observation_array[100] target_sequence[100] discord_array[100] relative_discord[100]
$INVAR observation_array[](5,5,6,7,7,6,6,6,9,10,19,27,27,21,21,25,30,39,44,86,104,93,85,88,67,115,329,380,714,855,1846,1968,1559,1480,1404,1317,1130,878,584,492,401,319,251,279,318,404,705,629,592,427,469,535,477,489,508,505,512,546,667,651,834,895,1164,1045,1094,1241,1284,1179,1075,1100,1236,1342,1334,1372,1722,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0)
$WEIGHTS commands=0 OPERATION_-=1 lines=1
$SHOWVAR cumulative_discord observation_array[] target_sequence[] discord_array[] relative_discord[]
$RESVAR observation_array[] discord_array[] relative_discord[] zero observation prediction discord cumulative_discord sample_size sample_size_test i j infinity minus_one thousand seq_a_size seq_b_size seq_c_size seq_d_size seq_e_size seq_f_size seq_g_size seq_h_size seq_i_size seq_j_size seq_k_size seq_l_size seq_m_size seq_n_size
$RESCOM VAR_TO_ARRAY
$PENVAL cumulative_discord
$MINIMIZE LINES 92
$SOUND OFF

x=0;
y=0;
z=0;
w=0;
q=0;
r=0;
s=0;
t=0;
u=0;
v=0;
zero=0;
minus_one=-1;
thousand=1000;
infinity=1000000;
seq_a_size=0;
seq_b_size=0;
seq_c_size=0;
seq_d_size=0;
seq_e_size=0;
seq_f_size=0;
seq_g_size=0;
seq_h_size=0;
seq_i_size=0;
seq_j_size=0;
seq_k_size=0;
seq_l_size=0;
seq_m_size=0;
seq_n_size=0;
sample_size=100;
sample_size_test=75;
i=zero;
predicted=0;
while (i<sample_size) {
$BES
    w+=3;
    z=target_sequence[z];
    predicted+=1;
    if (z>v) {
        if (x==y) {
            predicted+=-3;
            predicted*=6;
            q=t^q;
            v=sqrt(predicted);
            goto labelcritticall15;
        }
        r&=-9;
        r+=-30;
        y=q;
        t=!predicted;
        predicted=!q;
        predicted=predicted-r;
        q=w;
        w=t&v;
        w+=-1;
        r+=-7;
        labelcritticall15:;
        r=x^r;
        z=v;
        x+=1;
    }
    r+=-3;
    z+=18;
$EES
    target_sequence[i]=predicted;
    i++;
}
cumulative_discord=zero;
i=zero;
predicted=0;


 while (i<sample_size_test) {
 observation=observation_array[i];
 prediction=target_sequence[i];
 discord=prediction-observation;
 discord_array[i]=discord;
 relative_discord[i]=minus_one;
 discord=abs(discord);
 discord*=1;
 cumulative_discord=cumulative_discord+discord;
 if (discord == zero) {
 relative_discord[i]=minus_one;
 } else {
 if (observation == zero) {
 relative_discord[i]=thousand;
 } else {
 if (discord < infinity) {
 discord=discord*thousand;
 discord=discord/observation;
 relative_discord[i]=discord;
 cumulative_discord=cumulative_discord+discord;
 }
 }
 }
 i++;
 }


Code:
$DECLAREINT sample_size sample_size_test zero i j predicted cumulative_discord observation prediction discord infinity thousand minus_one seq_a_size seq_b_size seq_c_size seq_d_size seq_e_size seq_f_size seq_g_size seq_h_size seq_i_size seq_j_size seq_k_size seq_l_size seq_m_size seq_n_size x y z w q r s t u v
$DIMENSION observation_array[100] target_sequence[100] discord_array[100] relative_discord[100]
$INVAR observation_array[](5,5,6,7,7,6,6,6,9,10,19,27,27,21,21,25,30,39,44,86,104,93,85,88,67,115,329,380,714,855,1846,1968,1559,1480,1404,1317,1130,878,584,492,401,319,251,279,318,404,705,629,592,427,469,535,477,489,508,505,512,546,667,651,834,895,1164,1045,1094,1241,1284,1179,1075,1100,1236,1342,1334,1372,1722,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0)
$WEIGHTS commands=0 OPERATION_-=1 lines=1
$SHOWVAR cumulative_discord observation_array[] target_sequence[] discord_array[] relative_discord[]
$RESVAR observation_array[] discord_array[] relative_discord[] zero observation prediction discord cumulative_discord sample_size sample_size_test i j infinity minus_one thousand seq_a_size seq_b_size seq_c_size seq_d_size seq_e_size seq_f_size seq_g_size seq_h_size seq_i_size seq_j_size seq_k_size seq_l_size seq_m_size seq_n_size
$RESCOM VAR_TO_ARRAY
$PENVAL cumulative_discord
$MINIMIZE LINES 92
$SOUND OFF

x=0;
y=0;
z=0;
w=0;
q=0;
r=0;
s=0;
t=0;
u=0;
v=0;
zero=0;
minus_one=-1;
thousand=1000;
infinity=1000000;
seq_a_size=0;
seq_b_size=0;
seq_c_size=0;
seq_d_size=0;
seq_e_size=0;
seq_f_size=0;
seq_g_size=0;
seq_h_size=0;
seq_i_size=0;
seq_j_size=0;
seq_k_size=0;
seq_l_size=0;
seq_m_size=0;
seq_n_size=0;
sample_size=100;
sample_size_test=75;
i=zero;
predicted=0;
while (i<sample_size) {
$BES
    y|=1;
    while (t<w) {
        y^=15;
        w+=-16;
        r+=2;
        if (t<w) {
            r+=6;
            y=t;
            w+=-160;
            v<<=7;
            if (r>predicted) {
                v=r;
                y=0;
                t=17;
            }
            predicted=0;
            t+=13;
        }
        v+=-1;
    }
    v+=1;
    v^=5;
    t=10;
    r+=1;
    predicted=r|v;
    v=target_sequence[y];
    predicted+=-1;
    w=r;
$EES
    target_sequence[i]=predicted;
    i++;
}
cumulative_discord=zero;
i=zero;
predicted=0;


while (i<sample_size_test) {
observation=observation_array[i];
prediction=target_sequence[i];
discord=prediction-observation;
discord_array[i]=discord;
relative_discord[i]=minus_one;
discord=abs(discord);
discord*=1;
cumulative_discord=cumulative_discord+discord;
if (discord == zero) {
relative_discord[i]=minus_one;
} else {
if (observation == zero) {
relative_discord[i]=thousand;
} else {
if (discord < infinity) {
discord=discord*thousand;
discord=discord/observation;
relative_discord[i]=discord;
cumulative_discord=cumulative_discord+discord;
}
}
}
i++;
}

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bb113
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February 04, 2013, 05:04:50 PM
 #2

What parameters is it estimating?
Vandroiy
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February 04, 2013, 07:21:50 PM
 #3

Isn't that green line just the exponential function?

This again... Roll Eyes
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February 05, 2013, 11:49:58 AM
 #4

Ah, driving your car by looking into the rear mirror, are we? :-P

Ente
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February 06, 2013, 09:50:23 PM
 #5

The real formula rather would look like this probably:

Price at the end of the month is:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=sqrt+42+eur%5E2+per+cm+times+pi+times+inch+times+c+per+USD+per+nanosecond+times+candela

https://bitfinex.com <-- leveraged trading of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and LTCBTC (long and short) - 10% discount on fees for the first 30 days with this refcode: x5K9YtL3Zb
Mail me at Bitmessage: BM-BbiHiVv5qh858ULsyRDtpRrG9WjXN3xf
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Digital money you say?


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February 07, 2013, 01:28:49 AM
 #6

Ah, driving your car by looking into the rear mirror, are we? :-P

Ente

Hey! I am good at that.

FAP Turbo 2.0, the FOREX trading robot which also trades bitcoin!

I had to link it because I love the name. Seriously, that is the real name.
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February 07, 2013, 03:07:00 AM
 #7

Did I get it right that Critticall is closed source software for windows?

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