Halving and its effects

[crazyivan]

Ok, so we re less then 3 months away from halving. It s going to be a very interesting period for crypto and what effects is it going to produce, it s still big time unclear.

Here are potential options:

1. nothing changes
2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising
3. the price does not change, 90% of current miners become unprofitable, the difficulty drops big time, new generation of miners fills the gap.
4. the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies.

What would you say we should expect?

[1715444695]

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[Pursuer]

Ok, so we re less then 3 months away from halving. It s going to be a very interesting period for crypto and what effects is it going to produce, it s still big time unclear.

Here are potential options:

1. nothing changes

everything is changing with bitcoin, you can't expect the price to stay at this level. we are not yet at a stable price stage.

2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising

probably this happens. there is a lot of speculation going on about halving and nobody can tell which one will come to pass.
but I guess a price rise (probably another rally) is most possible.

3. the price does not change, 90% of current miners become unprofitable, the difficulty drops big time, new generation of miners fills the gap.

the price part might happen because of the issues we are facing these days but I doubt that miners quit if the price stays at this level.

4. the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies.

What would you say we should expect?

this is never going to happen, the market is bigger than that to die this easily. besides there are a lot of big whales invested thousands of dollars in bitcoin who will never let that happen. and not to mention the huge use base.

[aso118]

My expectation for the price is to remain flat (+- 10%).
We have seen a rapid price increase in the last few months of 2015, and the impact of the block reward halving seems to have been factored in.

[BitcoinSupremo]

4 is never going to happen, for this I am pretty convinced at 101%. All other 3 options are highly possible but we can only speculate about them now. Personally I think the price of Bitcoin will go up but not as much as expected, about 10-20% and not more.

[Scream]

2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising


i think the price will be double, we can reach $1000 again

[Hellacopter]

I think the third possibility is more realistic , the fourth and first one can't happen in my opinion, because the most predictions about the next halving tell us that the Bitcoin price will increase may be not for the double but will get highest level likely

[MFahad]

Ok, so we re less then 3 months away from halving. It s going to be a very interesting period for crypto and what effects is it going to produce, it s still big time unclear.

Here are potential options:

1. nothing changes
2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising
3. the price does not change, 90% of current miners become unprofitable, the difficulty drops big time, new generation of miners fills the gap.
4. the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies.

What would you say we should expect?

The number 1 and number 2 are highly unlikely to happen. Rather i think the option no 4 "the price drops due to false expectations, crypto slows down and eventually loses lots of people. Crypto dies. " is never going to happen.
Price can rise enormously or maybe little bit . Its depends on the trend which will be there for next 3 months.

[jak1]

2. the price doubles of more, current miners remain profitable and new generation of miners enters the game, the difficulty keeps rising


i think the price will be double, we can reach $1000 again

This is what eberyone expects including myself. I wish if it really happens.
but if this does not happen, it will disappoint to most of people who are currently saving it to earn big profits.

[Jet Cash]

Why does everybody focus on price. imho the biggest change will be the centralisation of mining. Some people seem to think that this is the reason for the aggressive blocksize doubling action as well.

[crazyivan]

I mention price growth cause of the fact daily BTC supply will be cut in half. Current supply is covered with current demand and the price s more less stable, in equilibrium. What happens if u would cut daily supply in half tomorrow? The price should go up. Economics 101.

[stereotype]

If Bitcoin is indeed in the same bracket as an Economic 101, then the pricing would traditionally reflect a ~6 month forward price level. So maybe its already accounted for and priced in.
But hey.....Crypto! 

[talkbitcoin]

i am guessing the price is going to increase but it might not be increases as double the price now. but the increase part is very possible, which will come down if it is a swift rise and will stay if it is the normal way as it was through last year.

[crazyivan]

Well, Litecoin, which s much smaller coin compared to BTC, doubled in price after halving. The entire price jump started just before the halving, about 2 weeks before that. So, having that in mind, I expect quite hot summer. It might even go above 1K but I think it ll settle somewhere between 600-800$. Current price s simply unsustainable.

[kwukduck]

4. Although crypto nor bitcoin will completely die anytime soon. The whole halving is so extremely overhyped we can expect at least a 30-40% drop in the days following the halving.

Several governments and banks are picking up on blockchain technology. Smart people invest in those technologies because they will be the only ones that survive and be legal in the future.

[Hamuki]

I mention price growth cause of the fact daily BTC supply will be cut in half. Current supply is covered with current demand and the price s more less stable, in equilibrium. What happens if u would cut daily supply in half tomorrow? The price should go up. Economics 101.

I totally agree: cut supply and even if demand stays flat, you have a price rise. There are some other players tho, that would push price down: mining difficulty, unprofitability of old hardware etc. So yes, price up but not that much as expected or wished: i say 500-800 is a good start. Another jump will come on the scene when all 14-16 nm chips will pop up.

[randy8777]

i believe the price will show an increase, but it will not double from the current price level. if it does double, then it's great of course, but i don't think it will. i think a price of $500-$600 will be a realistic prediction.

[DodoB]

I speculate a slight increase,nothing too major,like to the 500$-550$ range.

[alisafidel58]

I speculate a slight increase,nothing too major,like to the 500$-550$ range.

Its really going to be just 500+ and nothing more, a lot of people will really be disappointed as they see that the price will reach 800 or so.

[Amph]

Several governments and banks are picking up on blockchain technology. Smart people invest in those technologies because they will be the only ones that survive and be legal in the future.

this must lead to an increase int he long term, since more interest from regulated institution mean that more average joe will be willing to invest in bitcoin

the value will increase for the halving, maybe not double or crazy value like 10k, but it will increase

[BTCLovingDude]

Several governments and banks are picking up on blockchain technology. Smart people invest in those technologies because they will be the only ones that survive and be legal in the future.

this must lead to an increase int he long term, since more interest from regulated institution mean that more average joe will be willing to invest in bitcoin

the value will increase for the halving, maybe not double or crazy value like 10k, but it will increase

and not to mention all those government and bank related organizations that are using blockchain technology will only create a centralized altcoin which nobody will ever be interested in and will die before they begin.

and each average joe will use cash and if they are interested in blockchain technology they will use bitcoin and not their centralized altcoin.