Problems after halving if blocksize is not coming to a solution?

[BlackJacky]

Hi Folks,

I hear more and more that if the blocksize debate is not coming to an agreement until the halving in summer Bitcoin will die, blow up, whatever. I dont understand the depdency between reward halving and the blocksize debate.

Thanks to everyone in advance for a short Explanation

[Amph]

why it should die? at worst bitcoin will remain "crippled" due to the fact that real adoption will not take place which such a limitation, if they do not come up with anything else

[odolvlobo]

Here is the scenario:

It is assumed that the halving will create a steep rise in the price of a bitcoin, and this will cause a huge increase in the movement of bitcoins in and out of exchanges. The transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network is limited by the maximum block size. Some people are afraid that the increased exchange traffic will far exceed the network capacity to the point where most transactions cannot be confirmed. The appearance of a frozen network will cause panic. Everyone will dump their bitcoins and leave. Bitcoin will die.

I think it is safe to say that the above scenario will not happen. Every event in the scenario, from the steep rise in price to the abandoning of Bitcoin, is very unlikely to happen.

[RoommateAgreement]

Hi Folks,

I hear more and more that if the blocksize debate is not coming to an agreement until the halving in summer Bitcoin will die, blow up, whatever. I dont understand the depdency between reward halving and the blocksize debate.

Thanks to everyone in advance for a short Explanation

you don't understand the depdency because there is none between these two!

the block size debate is argument about increasing the size of each block from 1MB to something else because blocks are full and more users means more tx and more unconfirmed tx,...

the halving is the reward that miners get for mining a block which will go from 25 to 12.5

i don't see why bitcoin should die when these two come together!

[franky1]

here is a summary of some numpty's prophecies

"bitcoin needs to double capacity and increase the fee to cover the miner income loss, meaning 4000tx needs to be $1.25 each to cover the $5k loss"
(i know facepalm right)

"miners will die off after the blockreward halving. its going to happen and no one can forsee it because its never happened before"
(i know facepalm right)

"the hard drive costs for miners would be billions of dollars, which miners cannot afford after the reward halving"
(i know facepalm right)

so lets clear this up
1. the bitcoin fiat price will rise to cover sotoshi losses
2. there are more miners AND pools then there were in 2012. the last time the reward halved.
3. lets say we have the max filled blocks of 5.7mb (2mb+segwit+payment codes). thats 300gb a year. or 1.5tb for 5 years.. basically $100 for a 2tb hard drive can hold that. and it wont be full in under 5 years because even with 5.7mb max potential. the reality will be a slower usage of that capacity growing slowly over time. secondly unscrew an ASIC and you wont see a hard drive. miners do not need hard drives(just pools) and so its not going to increase the cost of mining

[vinaha]

I agree with OP.
At least insofar as price increase. The block size needs to be resolved now, a month of security, and then the hype of the halving, if we hope to get the most out of this once-in-a-four-year event.

Otherwise nothing will happen except the shutting down of some of these mining farms.

[BitMaxz]

If the block sized still no resolve i think bitcoin will not die and the price still the same as today price..
Bitcoin will not die and we are uses it as payment or money here online. also in any company online...
So its impossible...

[adamstgBit]

segwit or 2MB will come very soon.

everything will be fine.

[franky1]

segwit or 2MB will come very soon.

everything will be fine.

segwit AND 2mb combined will be coming soon.. but not soon enough,
nothing bad will happen. but instead of stagnating (staying the same) for a year, if done sooner then bitcoin can grow and expand unhindered.

[Jet Cash]

Blocks aren't full, well some are, but there is still surplus capacity. So there is no crisis. If people stopped spamming transactions, and distorting the traffic flow, then we could come to a decent planned growth. Not fasll for some bid by miners to try to centralise mining.

[adamstgBit]

segwit or 2MB will come very soon.

everything will be fine.

segwit AND 2mb combined will be coming soon.. but not soon enough,
nothing bad will happen. but instead of stagnating (staying the same) for a year, if done sooner then bitcoin can grow and expand unhindered.

I share your frustration with how long its taking to get some kind of capacity increase...
1 year ago chinese miners were ready to agree to 8MB max block limit  after much consideration, and here we are, made to wait another 2 months probably more, for a tiny increase to "effective" block size....
but once segwit is released and widely adopted ( fingers crossed! ) we'll get nearly double capacity, which should be good enough for now.

short term looks good to me.
long term, i strongly disagree with Core devs. i believe there plan makes very little sense economically, and will cost bitcoin its spot as #1 crypto.

[franky1]

short term looks good to me.
long term, i strongly disagree with Core devs. i believe there plan makes very little sense economically, and will cost bitcoin its spot as #1 crypto.

agreed they want their side chains.
its people in the blockstream camp hoping NXT or monero will be a sidechain.. (fools),
hoping that they get to be billionaires by hoarding worthless alts.

[Amph]

why it should die? at worst bitcoin will remain "crippled" due to the fact that real adoption will not take place which such a limitation, if they do not come up with anything else

 

what you're not understanding? by having a limit on how many transactions you can have per second, big adoption increase thanks to big merchants like amazon will never come into play

[BlackJacky]

Here is the scenario:

It is assumed that the halving will create a steep rise in the price of a bitcoin, and this will cause a huge increase in the movement of bitcoins in and out of exchanges. The transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network is limited by the maximum block size. Some people are afraid that the increased exchange traffic will far exceed the network capacity to the point where most transactions cannot be confirmed. The appearance of a frozen network will cause panic. Everyone will dump their bitcoins and leave. Bitcoin will die.

I think it is safe to say that the above scenario will not happen. Every event in the scenario, from the steep rise in price to the abandoning of Bitcoin, is very unlikely to happen.

That is a point I understand that during halving, Right before and right after the volumes could increase very strong.

[Rostadom]

Here is the scenario:

It is assumed that the halving will create a steep rise in the price of a bitcoin, and this will cause a huge increase in the movement of bitcoins in and out of exchanges. The transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network is limited by the maximum block size. Some people are afraid that the increased exchange traffic will far exceed the network capacity to the point where most transactions cannot be confirmed. The appearance of a frozen network will cause panic. Everyone will dump their bitcoins and leave. Bitcoin will die.

I think it is safe to say that the above scenario will not happen. Every event in the scenario, from the steep rise in price to the abandoning of Bitcoin, is very unlikely to happen.

That is a point I understand that during halving, Right before and right after the volumes could increase very strong.

After halving, the supply of new coins will be reduced. So I think the trading volume of bitcoin will reduce.

[tyz]

He wanted to tell you that your answer had nothing to do with the question He asked what the problem with the missing consensus and the halving is. It has less to do with adoption. Look at the answer of franky1 to see what the OP wanted to know.

why it should die? at worst bitcoin will remain "crippled" due to the fact that real adoption will not take place which such a limitation, if they do not come up with anything else

 

what you're not understanding? by having a limit on how many transactions you can have per second, big adoption increase thanks to big merchants like amazon will never come into play

[Kprawn]

There seems to be different concerns, before or after the Halving happens...

~ The transactions will increase, as people hype the shit out of the Halving event and then the blocks will fill up and people will not be able to do these transactions. {New people will leave}
~ The miners rewards after the Halving will not be enough to cover their expenses and they will stop mining.
~ Transactions will go down after the Halving and would not be enough to supplement the miners income lost by the Halving event. {Miners Fee's}

Well, All of this is just speculation at this time.... I foresee a increase in transactions building up to the Halving and just there after, and then a drop in transactions... but still higher than today. The

unprofitable miners will leave and the difficulty will decrease, creating opportunities for other people to take those spots. The miners fee & transactions will climb slowly as adoption grows and will

eventually fill the income, lost by the Halving of the miners rewards. 

[Amph]

He wanted to tell you that your answer had nothing to do with the question He asked what the problem with the missing consensus and the halving is. It has less to do with adoption. Look at the answer of franky1 to see what the OP wanted to know.

why it should die? at worst bitcoin will remain "crippled" due to the fact that real adoption will not take place which such a limitation, if they do not come up with anything else

 

what you're not understanding? by having a limit on how many transactions you can have per second, big adoption increase thanks to big merchants like amazon will never come into play

the halving has nothing to do with the consensus about the block limit, i mean if there will be no consensus and we remain at 1mb, it's not like the miners will face any drop in their earning due to the block limit, but it will be due to the halving itself

their profit come only by the demand , and demand can increase only if there is an increase in transaction one day, so yes my snwer has everything to do with the OP, not directly, but you can see the whole picture now

[mayax]

many miners from outside of China will stop mining because the BTC will not cover their expenses. let's admit it that all the miners will lose half of their profits over night. the demand will be the same.

any raising of the block limit means an altcoin.

[Jet Cash]

404512    12 minutes    1020    11,361.54 BTC    AntPool    561
404511    21 minutes    492    2,300.51 BTC    AntPool    258.23
404510    26 minutes    149    1,391.25 BTC    AntPool    120.73
404509    26 minutes    458    4,397.90 BTC    BTCC Pool    212.47
404508    30 minutes    840    8,244.73 BTC    F2Pool    546.94
404507    37 minutes    1295    7,773.54 BTC    AntPool    883.73

It's a good job that all you guys who say that blocks are full don't work in my local pub.