ASICS - How high will the difficulty be on june 30, 2013

[MaGNeT]

When ASICS start hitting the market, expected for this (or next) month, what will it do to difficulty.

I think, on june 30, the difficulty will be close to 50,000,000.
That would mean the Bitcoin network power went up from 25Th/s to 400Th/s!

Why? I think 5000 - 6000 units at 60Gh/s will be added to the network on june 30, 2012 (BFL Bitforce 'SC' single and Avalons) and some 1,5Th BFL mini RIG's.

At that difficulty rate, a 60Gh/s ASIC will only mine 0,55 BTC in 24 hours 

What do you think that happens to difficulty?

[crazyates]

Where's the "Over 9000" option?

[MaGNeT]

Where's the "Over 9000" option?

Since it's already 3,275,465 I don't see why

[Fuzzy]

Where's the "Over 9000" option?

Since it's already 3,275,465 I don't see why

He meant "Over 9000,000,000".

[MaGNeT]

Where's the "Over 9000" option?

Since it's already 3,275,465 I don't see why

He meant "Over 9000,000,000".

9,000,000,000 = over 100,000,000.

[coinnewb]

On July 1st, 2013, Bitcoin mining difficulty will be higher than 20,000,000 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1021)
On March 1st 2013, bitcoin difficulty will be higher than 9,000,000 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=926)

[v3miner]

wtf is wrong with you people that you didn't get the "Over 9000" joke? 

[crashoveride54902]

wtf is wrong with you people that you didn't get the "Over 9000" joke? 

not everyone plays wow?

[crazyates]

wtf is wrong with you people that you didn't get the "Over 9000" joke? 

not everyone plays wow?

[Beta-coiner1]

wtf is wrong with you people that you didn't get the "Over 9000" joke? 

not everyone plays wow?

Yup,wow doesn't wow me.

On ASICs,It seems all the 'companies' are being super secret and shifty concerning what they have to offer with nothing but promises and artificial dates.I also don't think pics are enough at this point until actual reports on the success of the product comes from at least 10 users. *Throws down gauntlet*

[mokahless]

Let's get a real discussion going. Let's start with picking apart my calculations based on incomplete information:

Avalon 1st shipment: 20TH/s finished during march
BFL first shipment: 55TH/s? finished during march? (rough guess of me assuming the total hashrate listed on the wait thread will be the same as the first shipment)
Asicminer, 1st setup: 12TH/s mining by late feb?

Avalon 2nd shipment: 40TH/s
BFL second shipment: ??-? (doesn't really matter since estimates of delivery of second shipment seem to be around late june)
Asicminer, 2nd setup: 72TH/s

Sooo.... let's assume 25TH/s+55TH/s+20TH/s+12TH/s = 112TH/s by the end of march

expecting to expand to at least 224TH/s by the end of June
224TH/s=31.29 million difficulty.

My personal guess is 35 million (aka ~250TH/s) for your poll, based on all this, since I expect to see shipping problems, resellers, people not mining 24-7, GPUs and FPGAs dropping out due to people with ASICs switching and some people without ASICs dropping out completely, etc. Plus, I don't expect everything that has been sold so far to be online or shipped by the end of June anyway.

250TH/s
= 34.92 million difficulty
= 0.86401318 expected BTC/day@60GH/s
= 69.44GH/s to solve 1 block per day

Interestingly, the SC mini single I have on order at 30GH/s should net me a bit more than amount per day that I got with my 800MH/s setup when I started mining seriously, once everything starts to level out. Of course, I expect the difficulty increase to incline at the same relative rate as it has over the past few months, once things level out.

I hope to have a unit that will break me even within 6 months and after that, I can keep hashing competitively enough to keep up the hobby.

These are my expectations. What does everyone else think?

edit: gorram smily on ? ? ?

[franky1]

saves me re-writing the same thing twice
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=141629.msg1511329#msg1511329

[mokahless]

from all accounts batch one of avalons had 300 orders

300 x 68Ghash=20Thash

i know the 3 units that would be advertised to the community by the litecoin foundation, a well known blogger. and someone else (cant find much details on) arrived.

but the other 297.... hmmmmm

i was hoping/expecting a faster upclimb in hash rate. above anything ever experienced before.
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
many GPU/FPGA miners got the hashrate up to 28Thash in december 2012 and just as the avalon news broke. so i was expecting a new high, over the 28Thash existent high.

i guess its a waiting game.

final thought:
the 2 high spots could have been avalon testing some ASIC units so the average 'high' could be around 24-25Thash, many variables/possibilities need to be calculated. EG FPGA/GPU miners may flock to other alt currencies and leave only ASIC miners with their 20Thash of combined power in the next few weeks

copy + paste = same amount of effort. I mean, you did copy and paste something anyway: the link