[MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements

[rini17]

Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.

It is not possible to calculate possible win in advance, because the odds are changing every time a new bet is made - 50/50 bet can change to 10/90 when someone bets large sum on one side. To simplify it, first without considering weights, if that large bet was on your side and you win, you'll get only 1.1btc. If that bet was on opposite(losing) side, you'll get 9btc. When you add the weights into consideration, if you bet early, later bets influence your expected return less and less as time passes.

That's the beauty of it.

[Peter Lambert]

Have there been any discussions on making the bet formula a bit simpler? Perhaps showing Decimal or American odds instead of the current weight system. I feel like people would be more likely to place a bet if it was easy to understand their possible winnings. It would also be nice if the possible outcome of the bet was displayed on the page where you type in your bitcoin address. For example, if the odds were 50/50 and you placed a 1btc bet it would say something about how you get 2 btc if you win the bet. This kind of thing seems to be readily available on most of the sports gambling websites I have used in the past, and it is always a welcomed feature.

It is not possible to calculate possible win in advance, because the odds are changing every time a new bet is made - 50/50 bet can change to 10/90 when someone bets large sum on one side. To simplify it, first without considering weights, if that large bet was on your side and you win, you'll get only 1.1btc. If that bet was on opposite(losing) side, you'll get 9btc. When you add the weights into consideration, if you bet early, later bets influence your expected return less and less as time passes.

That's the beauty of it.

But you should be able to at least have some sort of calculator which calculates how much you would win if you bet X btc now. There is a formula which the website uses, put it into a javascript or something and let the computer figure this out. There is no reason for people to have to guess how things are calculated and try to do such complicated math in their head. Put a big disclaimer that actual results could be changed by people betting in the future and you should be okay.

[dance4x]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.

[Peter Lambert]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

Having pointed this out, I feel like bitbet.us would eventually lose out to a site that works as an exchange between bettors instead of this current system. I believe this is how InTrade worked before it was shut down. I think most bettors like the idea of knowing how much they can win from their bet when the bet is placed.

InTrade was shut down, what? Wow, didn't see that coming. From http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21576148-flagship-prediction-market-faces-insolvency-bet-lynched:

" It turned out that the firm had followed in the footsteps of MF Global, a derivatives broker, and Worldspreads, a spread-betting outfit, which both collapsed in 2012 after committing the cardinal sin of dipping into their clients’ accounts.

 Intrade’s fall from grace is likely to discourage American participants from sending money to offshore firms. In the past the CFTC has rejected requests from companies under its jurisdiction to offer non-financial contracts."

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

[rini17]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

[dance4x]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

I see what you are saying. I guess I am just pointing out that most people would probably rather use a system where they know what the possible return on their bet is going to be when the bet is placed. For bitbet, this would mean overhauling the entire bet system. This could just be my own wrong opinion, but I'd like to see if others agree.

[Peter Lambert]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

But that is what everybody is doing right now. When I go look at a bet, I of course have no way to measure what people will bet in the future, but I can make some sort of estimate on "If I bet X now and I win, I will get back Y". Since the formula is complicated, it makes it hard to figure out what Y would be, but before placing any bet I at least try to estimate Y. It would just be so much easier if there was a simple calculator on the site which would do that calculation for me, so I can decide if I want to make the bet or not. I know it is just an estimation that would be changed by any future bets, but it would be a better estimation than what I am doing in my head.

[rini17]

^Exactly. The formula is even laid out in the FAQ page.

But as I'm trying to explain, it depends on later bets.. so if you just blindly calculate the win at time of your bet and base your decision on it, you can mislead yourself.

But that is what everybody is doing right now. When I go look at a bet, I of course have no way to measure what people will bet in the future, but I can make some sort of estimate on "If I bet X now and I win, I will get back Y". Since the formula is complicated, it makes it hard to figure out what Y would be, but before placing any bet I at least try to estimate Y. It would just be so much easier if there was a simple calculator on the site which would do that calculation for me, so I can decide if I want to make the bet or not. I know it is just an estimation that would be changed by any future bets, but it would be a better estimation than what I am doing in my head.

That does not mean the site owner must support this. My own experience (from listing CoinBr assets on BitFunder) shown that people just don't read thoroughly and latch on to first number that looks like something they need. Then when they don't get expected result they scream I'm misleading them. So I added more ugly disclaimers and visually distinguished examples...and advise against adding such cruft to bitbet, having no such info and users must research first is better.

[MPOE-PR]

But you should be able to at least have some sort of calculator which calculates how much you would win if you bet X btc now. There is a formula which the website uses, put it into a javascript or something and let the computer figure this out. There is no reason for people to have to guess how things are calculated and try to do such complicated math in their head. Put a big disclaimer that actual results could be changed by people betting in the future and you should be okay.

This might actually be a good idea!

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

[Peter Lambert]

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

[dance4x]

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

Now that I think about it, in trade may have worked in the same way. The only difference was that you could buy and sell bets after they were placed. So if the odds on your bet turning put to be a winner actually happened, you could sell your position on that bet to someone else before the action actually took place.

[Deprived]

Maybe there would be a way to do both, have the betting as it is now and add on a second set of bets with a more InTrade like functionality? Sounds like there is a sudden opening in internet real estate that is just begging to be filled by a bitcoin company.

The idea is that entrepreneurial individuals provide that service on the BitBet infrastructure. It's easy enough to do and from what you're saying profitable.

Actually, I never used intrade. Could anybody describe how it is different than the way bitbet works?

It was totally different.

Bets were treated as contracts - with one created whenever a buyer and seller agreed on a price for it via the market.

If you've ever used Betfair for sports betting then it was far more like that - whilst Bitbet is more like a Tote type system.

On intrade if we agreed (via bidding on the open market) that a proposition was 3 times more likely to occur than not occur then the one backing that it would occur would pay $7.50 and the one saying that it would NOT occur would pay $2.50 - giving a total value to the contract of $10 paid to the winner when the bet was resolved.

Where you had multiple contracts on linked events (for example bets for and against different candidates in an election) then your total exposure was calculated and funds reserved to cover the maximum possible loss you could incur.

All contracts could be freely traded - with the market price reflecting overall sentiment about the shifting likelihood of the various results.

[MPOE-PR]

It was totally different.

Bets were treated as contracts - with one created whenever a buyer and seller agreed on a price for it via the market.

If you've ever used Betfair for sports betting then it was far more like that - whilst Bitbet is more like a Tote type system.

On intrade if we agreed (via bidding on the open market) that a proposition was 3 times more likely to occur than not occur then the one backing that it would occur would pay $7.50 and the one saying that it would NOT occur would pay $2.50 - giving a total value to the contract of $10 paid to the winner when the bet was resolved.

Where you had multiple contracts on linked events (for example bets for and against different candidates in an election) then your total exposure was calculated and funds reserved to cover the maximum possible loss you could incur.

All contracts could be freely traded - with the market price reflecting overall sentiment about the shifting likelihood of the various results.

It's not that different once you realize the intrade-style market will only exist if MMd, in which case it all boils down to the exact same thing.

We actually have a bet pool at the office as to how long it'll take the community for some clever entrepreneur to figure out the math behind this homology and actually release a BitBet backed intrade implementation (yes, it is spelled out in the linked comment but reading is hard etc).

[MPOE-PR]

April results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 306 new propositions, of which accepted 99 worth 1`427.12033496 BTC, rejected 207i.

Revenue : 52.41062758 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 18.89598891 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3 BTC
house bets won : 4.70571706 BTCⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 25.80892161 BTC

Expenditure : 10.96703057 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.65703057 BTC
house bets made : 10.31000000 BTC

Profit : 41.44359701 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

April, slightly slower than March. See you all next month, in the Big Rock Candy Mountains.

———

i. Up 214%, 33%, down 15%, up 300% respectively. Significant increase in propositions (especially unacceptable ones), consistent with BitBet reinforcing its market dominant position. Slight slowdown of new bets coming in. My guess would be that this is due to loads of BTC being redirected to speculative use this month. Graphs :



ii. 1,889.59852844 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 7.34000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month, putting the house’s 4.70571706 BTC above even.

[MPOE-PR]

May results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 68 new propositions, of which accepted 16 worth 422.56553095 BTC, rejected 52ⁱ.

Revenue : 6.70437137 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.74798271 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 0.1 BTC
house bets won : 2.85634306ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.0000456 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.62041977 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.02041977 BTC
house bets made : 1.60000000 BTC

Profit : 5.0839516 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************



———

i. This is quite awful. One fifth of last month’s proposition volume, with acceptance rate going from one third to one quarter. People, wake up! There is exactly one way to make BTC on the strength of your wits rather than on the strength of your capital (be it mining gear or whatever). This is it.

Graphs :


ii. 374.79813025 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 4.03000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Nice to see people are learning. Well done.

[Peter Lambert]

i. This is quite awful. One fifth of last month’s proposition volume, with acceptance rate going from one third to one quarter. People, wake up! There is exactly one way to make BTC on the strength of your wits rather than on the strength of your capital (be it mining gear or whatever). This is it.

How much do people get for submitting bet proposals? Maybe increasing that would encourage a higher number of proposed bets? Hmm, maybe I should go submit some stuff ...

Spending a bit of money on advertising might be a good idea too.

[MPOE-PR]

How much do people get for submitting bet proposals? Maybe increasing that would encourage a higher number of proposed bets? Hmm, maybe I should go submit some stuff ...

Spending a bit of money on advertising might be a good idea too.

All submitted bets get a pool of no less than 0.1 BTC split between yes and no, courtesy of BitBet. The submitter gets the lower of these. So basically if the longshot wins the submitter makes w/e based on that, statistically should come out to about five bux per submitted bet which is obscenely generous already.

[Peter Lambert]

Any comment on whether any money will be spent on advertising?

[MPOE-PR]

June Results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 62 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 42. Total bets in worth 336.95451175 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 10.70484821 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 4.11394611 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 3.75 BTC
house bets won : 2.84090210ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.000009 BTC^iv

Expenditure : 1.90280655 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00280655 BTC^v
house bets made : 1.90000000 BTC

Profit : 8.80204166 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

Need moar people proposing bets, need moar referrers, need moar, moar MOAR!

———

i. Graphs :


ii. 411.39448879 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 3.53000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Zero next month ?

v. Wow, low.

[MPOE-PR]

July Results:

*****************
Operational results
*****************

Received 72 new propositions, of which accepted 19, rejected 53. Total bets in worth 220.67110380 BTC.ⁱ

Revenue : 7.77441249 BTC, of which :
bets resolved : 3.85399584 BTCⁱⁱ
advertising : 2 BTC
house bets won : 1.84242184ⁱⁱⁱ
gracious donations to shareholders : 0.07799481 BTC

Expenditure : 2.02110795 BTC, of which :
referrals paid : 0.00110795 BTC^iv
house bets made : 2.02000000 BTC

Profit : 5.75330454 BTC to be distributed as dividends.

*****************
Miscellaneous
*****************

I bet you next month’s income will surpass this month’s income.

i. Graphs :


ii. 385.39947767 BTC total pool resolved this month.

iii. 2.51000000 BTC worth of house bets were resolved in the current month.

iv. Half last month’s. Apparently people really don’t want to make Bitcoin.