so... how long till we pass the old high of 32?

[notig]

If the price of bitcoin goes to 32 dollars..... do you really think that if the price crashes again people will let the price go down as far as it has knowing that it has proven it can rise that far not once but more than once? I don't think so. If a crash happens I don't see it as being drastic. Of course it could be wishful thinking. But I'm happy whether the price goes down or up personally. In fact I would almost rather it go down so I can buy more bitcoins.

[Le Happy Merchant]

The price of Bitcoin isn't some random number. It has to do with physical goods tied to the use of the Bitcoin.

You can buy more with Bitcoin now than ever before.

Reaching a value twice means nothing in terms of market fundamentals. The psychological pressure may be present, but if the fundamentals are there, there will be no crash.

[Melbustus]

The price of Bitcoin isn't some random number. It has to do with physical goods tied to the use of the Bitcoin.

Not exclusively. It has properties similar to gold as well. How many physical goods do you guy and sell directly with gold? I think it's a common misconception that the success-case for bitcoin is tied exclusively to its utility as a means of transaction. That's only half the equation. If bitcoin, like gold, is only really ever transacted as a major settlement (as opposed to day-to-day transactional) currency, it can still be hugely successful. That said, I think bitcoin's near-ideal transactional properties will cause a real consumer economy to develop around it eventually, but the point is that that doesn't *have* to happen for bitcoin to have considerable value.

[notig]

The price of Bitcoin isn't some random number. It has to do with physical goods tied to the use of the Bitcoin.

Not exclusively. It has properties similar to gold as well. How many physical goods do you guy and sell directly with gold? I think it's a common misconception that the success-case for bitcoin is tied exclusively to its utility as a means of transaction. That's only half the equation. If bitcoin, like gold, is only really ever transacted as a major settlement (as opposed to day-to-day transactional) currency, it can still be hugely successful. That said, I think bitcoin's near-ideal transactional properties will cause a real consumer economy to develop around it eventually, but the point is that that doesn't *have* to happen for bitcoin to have considerable value.

I think i'm in agreement with this. Bitcoin is in sort of a unique situation in that it's a store of value and a form of money and transaction at the same time. Both could impact the value. Did I understand you right?

[luffy]

the btc value is strongly tied with difficulty. I dare to say that if and when ASICs go public and diff bocome 10x,
then it is logical that BTC goes 10x (=200$) as well 

[notig]

I'm not sure about that......... but I don't believe that mining doesn't have an impact on the price of bitcions. If it's suddenly "twice as hard" to acquire bitcoins through mining... then that has to do something it would seem....... or what about all of that money and capital being invested in new equipment currently? Won't that capital and investment somehow translate into the actual value of bitcoin itself eventually when it catches up? If you bought 100k in mining equipment recently.. it wouldn't effect the bitcoin price rice away. but with that kind of capital invested into bitcoin... does it have an effect on the price? I'm not sure. I'm just full of questions all the time now thinking about bitcoin.

[adamstgBit]

price is going up because speculators feel bitcoin is growing...

once they feel the "growth" is priced in, they will start to sell, and price will not stop going down until someone catches the knife, if the growth was real then their nothing to worry about the knife will be caught fast, if not.... down down down the rabbit hole we'll go.

so the real question is.... did anyone actually pay for wordpress with bitcoin?

[bcpokey]

Though the comparison to the previous record of 32 makes me greatly uneasy (as that was generally accepted to be a pump and dump), in general conditions are currently much more favorable than they once were.

More to do with bitcoin, broader economy base, larger exposure, less of a spiking frenzy, and so on.

I do find it interesting however how much of bitcoins continued success relies on what amounts essentially to "good will". There are a number of "bitcoin millionaires" from the old CPU days still lying about with tens or hundreds of thousands of bitcoins that could potentially rock the boat whenever suits their fancy. ASICs are still a pie in the sky dream for the most part, however at any moment with the demonstrated existence of them, someone could rock/fork the network, before/if the first units arrive in anyone elses hands. Same thing historically could have happened with whomever it was who produced the software to mine on GPUs.

That aside, I would tend to distrust these sudden price surges myself. And I'm not just bitter because I literally had myself priced to buy riiiight before it surged

[Technomage]

It's very difficult to speculate on how people will react to $32. My take on it is that we would see a medium sized correction but that would be a massive bear trap. We could easily shoot to $50+ or even around $100 after that. At that point we would have a big crash and settle somewhere between $20 and $50.

[phatsphere]

... crashes again ...

So far, there has never been a crash in the world of Bitcoin. Don't use words where you have no idea of their proper meaning. Instead, use a search engine to learn about "correction".

[cloon]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

[nobbynobbynoob]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

[Spaceman_Spiff]

ASICs are still a pie in the sky dream for the most part, however at any moment with the demonstrated existence of them, someone could rock/fork the network, before/if the first units arrive in anyone elses hands. Same thing historically could have happened with whomever it was who produced the software to mine on GPUs.

Avalon has already shipped first working ASIC units.  They are mining as we speak.

[johnyj]

The price of Bitcoin isn't some random number. It has to do with physical goods tied to the use of the Bitcoin.

Not exclusively. It has properties similar to gold as well. How many physical goods do you guy and sell directly with gold? I think it's a common misconception that the success-case for bitcoin is tied exclusively to its utility as a means of transaction. That's only half the equation. If bitcoin, like gold, is only really ever transacted as a major settlement (as opposed to day-to-day transactional) currency, it can still be hugely successful. That said, I think bitcoin's near-ideal transactional properties will cause a real consumer economy to develop around it eventually, but the point is that that doesn't *have* to happen for bitcoin to have considerable value.

I am always thinking about why is gold price so high and there is almost no use with it?

In this case, the gold's value depend on several things:
1.Stable and not easy to degrade
2.Limited supply
3.Historical acceptance
4.Political neutral
5.Anonymity

BTC almost have the same properties with even better mobility, it is just a matter of time to become mainstream

The only problem for BTC: It is so easy to lose them. If someone lost his gold, someone else will pick it up. But that could even make it more precious

[Beta-coiner1]

I think that it WILL surpass 32 for many varying reasons.I think it might hit 32 by mid-spring if this keeps up where the price is nominal.

-If BFL and Avalon get their act together the difficulty will certainly rise quite a bit.

-I think the current trades are actually buying up cheap BTC in lieu of this so that BTC will actually be worth more later on and to also influence the price obviously.The biggest danger obviously is a massive sell-off and individuals not feeling bullish anymore.

-There seems to be a record number of transactions on most exchanges NOT just the Gox!

-ASIC's are not going to influence the price much by flooding it even though that was the fear before!

-I suspect well beyond 32 maybe possible.

[Realpra]

the btc value is strongly tied with difficulty. I dare to say that if and when ASICs go public and diff bocome 10x,
then it is logical that BTC goes 10x (=200$) as well 

This would only be true if difficulty added value, it does not. Bitcoin has never been hacked before ASICs so the ASICs just add frosting to the cake.

The current stable price of BTC is about 22$ rising some 100-200% per year. If it goes further and then crashes though we will probably never go below 10$.

BTC is following a predictable exponential adoption curve, but is varying along that curve.

However that variation will get smaller as BTC has gotten bigger, the 2011 spike was a times 30 increase in value, today that would mean 300$ per coin or some 1-2 billion dollars moving into BTC within the year. This will not happen. The traders are also more numerous and smarter today, I doubt we will see such clear bubbles again.

[jwzguy]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

What do you mean by "something like?"
It definitely wasn't triggered by the Bitfloor hack...that didn't significantly change the price.

[molecular]

the btc value is strongly tied with difficulty. I dare to say that if and when ASICs go public and diff bocome 10x,
then it is logical that BTC goes 10x (=200$) as well 

That "logic" is flawed. Difficulty follows price.

[DoomDumas]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

[Melbustus]

i think we'll see a correction before crossing 32$. IMO the rise is too fast.
a scenario like in mid-august 2012 looks quite possible.

Agree, but wasn't that mini-crash triggered by something like the Bitfloor hack?

Or Trendon selling stolen coins ?

The correction of mid-august was not a market correction IMO.. It was 1 btc scammer unloading tons of stolen BTC.. Market knew it, quickly recover to real valuation !

I hope he sold them. The possibility of those thieves and scammers retaining significant bitcoin holdings down the road bothers me.