Does this forum have bears?

[notme]

TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.

I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct.  Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.

[Herodes]

(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

What is this 'something awful'-forum?  Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?

Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"

[byronbb]

TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.

I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct.  Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.

Heheh well said.  

[Spaceman_Spiff]

(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

What is this 'something awful'-forum?  Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?

Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"

I know right? Read a few posts too many and your brain will start rotting like something awful...

[adamstgBit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjlaE1DhiKU

your welcome

[adamstgBit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjlaE1DhiKU

your welcome

wait a minute... he was a stupid bear, and now hes turning bull finaly...

oh ic , nope no one is bearish atm

[Roger_Murdock]

I'm extremely bearish on the dollar. Does that count?

[nrd525]

it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process.  for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money.  where might that go?  a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises.  of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin.  but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.

Interest rates will rise to normal levels when the Federal Reserve stops printing money.  There won't be new money that is freed up in this process.  If the Federal Reserve were to shrink its balance sheet (as it has promised to do eventually), it will actually take away money from the rest of the economy.

[nrd525]

A small number of lucky ASIC early purchasers can make a killing, while the majority of orders go unfulfilled.

These early ASIC purchasers are at risk of buoyant optimism causing them to invest all of their earnings in more ASIC units and where they'll lose money.

The ASIC argument is all about what happens when you have high capital costs, a low marginal cost of production, and an overall market (production of BTC) that is constant.  Namely ASIC prices will fall 90% while the hash rate goes through the roof.  Perhaps you could argue that growth in BTC value makes the market not constant?  However I still don't think it will keep up with the marginal cost problem.

[evolve]

yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

undercover SA posters
nagle
me (in the current market, anyways)

[TraderTimm]

it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process.  for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money.  where might that go?  a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises.  of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin.  but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.

Interest rates will rise to normal levels when the Federal Reserve stops printing money.  There won't be new money that is freed up in this process.  If the Federal Reserve were to shrink its balance sheet (as it has promised to do eventually), it will actually take away money from the rest of the economy.

And likely plunge the entire equity market into chaos. If it takes $84 Billion a month just to eke out a small percentage in the Dow/S&P500, what do you think will happen when that evaporates? And I won't even go into what rising interest rates will do to servicing the massive payments on the national debt.

It would be a messy implosion, that's what.

[RodeoX]

There used to be a lot of bears here. Since the rise in prices they seem to have gone extinct. 

[sublime5447]

yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.
Major problems with BTC are--

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.

Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves

Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.

Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay taxes on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.

There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     

[TraderTimm]

HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.
Major problems with BTC are--

More are being mined? That's a rookie mistake to make. Only 3,600 are being mined per day, and this is independent of what technology is mining them. That number will go DOWN in four years, too.

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

You're describing the same dynamics that occur in global markets. If I make a product in the United States and sell it in Japan, I have to consider currency conversion risks. Major companies do this every day, and seems they're in the "place they want to be." Bitcoin is no different.

Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.

Wait, first you say "more are being mined every day" and now there aren't enough to go around? Make up your mind. And even if you do, you'd be wrong. I've never had a problem getting mine, but I guess I put more thought into my financial plans.

Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves

Wait a second, you mean people LIE to each other? What? They steal? OMG!? Society will grind to a halt! ... Or... mechanisms exist to trust other people conditionally. Bitcoin doesn't have any enforcement of contract, so you have to judge your risk accordingly, not leap in blindly thinking there's a safety net.

Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.

Ah, you've correctly discovered the present financial system is run by tyrants who can shut you down at will. That is why bitcoin will evolve beyond needing edge-exchanges. Bitcoin exists to route around these idiots. We really can't help you there, since the laws that have been made on the subject are paid for by rather large groups with piles of paper money in their vaults.

Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay money-grabbing on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.

There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     

Yes, breaking the law means you're in trouble. What a prescient and insightful comment. As for your "i just dont understand" comments, bitcoin has proven a lot of people wrong in that area - people who thought it was over in 2011, those who couldn't get the fact it could go higher than 5, or 10, or 20.... You get the idea.

I think you need to do more research about the whole subject. That includes business planning.

[sublime5447]

This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos.

[TraderTimm]

This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos.

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

[Melbustus]

Looks like you got some other point-by-point responses while I was typing this, but here're mine:

HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.

I'm long-term quite bullish on bitcoin, but I do think a 50% correction/crash is fully possible given the rapidity of the price rise. Might happen tomorrow. Might happen after a crazy run to $50. I don't know. So being bearish short-term is a valid position, in my opinion.

But you need to realize that the success-case for bitcoin isn't solely defined by the day-to-day consumer transaction market that it can develop. See my post here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142071.msg1513666#msg1513666

Major problems with BTC are--

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

Gets better long-term. Use BitPay now.

Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.

Agreed that this is a pain.

Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves

Sure, bitcoin has reputational issues, but it's false to say that "bitcoin" has trustworthiness issues. 3rd party services surrounding bitcoin have had such issues, though the situation is *much* improved from even a year ago, with stronger, more professional companies now dominating the economy.

Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.

What are you talking about here? Using an online wallet? Keeping lots of funds in Gox?

Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay taxes on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.

Not paying taxes has nothing to do with the particular currency or form of value received. 

There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     

Do you think gold should have any value above that driven by its industrial demand?

[sublime5447]

This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos.

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

What a dick huh? I have a business with great returns thanks. I dont save money I save wealth.

[zoinky]

Sublime judging by your posts you sound like one of those people that are upset they didn't get to stock up back when the price was in the single digits. 

[evolve]

Oh no, Someone posted a dissenting opinion on bitcointalk!!! Quick, everyone jump on the dogpile!!!!