Why this is not a bubble

[Seth Otterstad]

There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's what's different from a year ago:

Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month.  Forum usage up hundreds of percent.

A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25

Many other hardware wallets are in development.

The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day

Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48

SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December

BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS

Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins

There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.

Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.

Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital.  Coinbase got 100k.

Wordpress, the 20th largest website in the world, signed up with BitPay.  BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.

Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.

Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012

Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges

New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry

The protocol will be upgraded this year to support sending to addresses that look like “bitcoinfoundation.org” instead of “1BTCorgHwCg6u2YSAWKgS17qUad6kHmtQW“

A major US facing poker site will start accepting bitcoin

[notig]

I can't say if you are right or not but I will say this is exactly why I'm back "in" bitcoin again. I really liked bitcoin a year ago but I didn't buy any simply because I didn't see it being used enough. But this kind of growth? Where will we be in 2 more years? I'm pretty sure the value in 2 years has to be more than it is now.

[paulie_w]

The protocol will be upgraded this year to support usernames/email instead of 31 random characters.

huh?

[Scott J]

The protocol will be upgraded this year to support usernames/email instead of 31 random characters.

huh?

I would like a source/more information on this please

[notme]

The protocol will be upgraded this year to support usernames/email instead of 31 random characters.

huh?

I would like a source/more information on this please

He's referring the the payment protoco[1]l Gavin is working on.  It's not going to change bitcoin, just add some convenience on top.

1. https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/2217885

[yochdog]

The fact that everyone is post-rationalizing "why it's not a bubble" is precisely why it is indeed, a bubble. 

Not saying it cannot continue, but too many peeps are all in on this one. 

[yochdog]

The fact that everyone is post-rationalizing "why it's not a bubble" is precisely why it is indeed, a bubble.  

Not saying it cannot continue, but too many peeps are all in on this one.  

I know that if anyone on these forums desperately wants it to to be a bubble, it's you!

Nah, I am kind of agnostic really.  I earn enough from the crazy speculation that I am content.  

I simply observe this type of behavior all the time due to my day job in the financial markets.  (IE, APPLE at $700 that could do no wrong and could never go down and could only go to $1,000 or higher.  Oops) 

[yochdog]

The fact that everyone is post-rationalizing "why it's not a bubble" is precisely why it is indeed, a bubble.  

Not saying it cannot continue, but too many peeps are all in on this one.  

I know that if anyone on these forums desperately wants it to to be a bubble, it's you!

Nah, I am kind of agnostic really.  I earn enough from the crazy speculation that I am content.  

I simply observe this type of behavior all the time due to my day job in the financial markets.  

I recall you using the term "BRUTAL" a few short months ago, when the exchange rate was much lower.

Opportunity cost is a bitch, but netting several thousand a month does not suck either.  

...but hey, by all means buy as much as you can here......nothing can go wrong! 

[yochdog]

I earn well in excess of the payment....
Plus I have a price collar.  Not really short in the traditional sense.  My only losses are opportunity cost.

[yochdog]

Oh, not at all!  I would be very pleased.  But my skepticism is not driven by my selfish desires.  I just see some classic herd mentality going on. 

[Vandroiy]

There's absolutely no denying the herd mentality. Whether now or later, at high price or low, Bitcoin markets are heavily asking for a bust. People buy because it "is rising" and use qualitative analysis where quantitative analysis belongs.

Don't know whether I should call myself bearish quite yet, but this time danger level is not as low as it was on the 5-to-10 rise.

In 2011 the hype of everybody starting new businesses was there as well. In the end, the ones that survived and mattered were hardly the ones named back in the day. I agree there's potential in gambling, yet it's hard to tell when and how it might play out, and how much of the stored value turns out in BTC and thus affecting exchange value.

Points like "Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins" are bubble indicators. Likewise, as yochdog hinted, the title of this thread is a bubble indicator. Tread carefully.

[Bit_Happy]

The market will go UP and also down.

[Kettenmonster]

Yes, it is a bubble! So make sure it's not you to loose all the value when it's going down again!
Send your coins to: 1CsLD4Do1o1fdUdGwWxrxgp73G6UfwGruB
I will altruistically take all the loss on my account. 

[evoorhees]

I think one thing is apparent - if it IS a bubble, then it is less bubbly than the ~$30 bubble in 2011. The economy is far more advanced now.

I think the proper price of Bitcoin right now, all things considered, is $10-$50 per.

[mrvision]

THIS IS MY BET

[Spaceman_Spiff]

THIS IS MY BET

This is almost identical to what I have in mind.

[meowmeowbrowncow]

Oh, not at all!  I would be very pleased.  But my skepticism is not driven by my selfish desires.  I just see some classic herd mentality going on. 

Mooooooo.


Agreed.

[Herodes]

I simply observe this type of behavior all the time due to my day job in the financial markets.  (IE, APPLE at $700 that could do no wrong and could never go down and could only go to $1,000 or higher.  Oops) 

Isn't that why going against the herd, or outside the box is what brings profit ? Doing the same as everyone else is barely going to make you rich.

[CurbsideProphet]

Oh, not at all!  I would be very pleased.  But my skepticism is not driven by my selfish desires.  I just see some classic herd mentality going on. 

There's certainly some herd mentality on Bitcointalk, however, that may be a micro-analysis.  For the vast majority of the "herd" (ie. majority of the world population) Bitcoin is either unknown, a fraud/ponzi, nerd currency, etc.

From a macro perspective, you could easily argue that those who are long Bitcoin are actually the contrarians. 

[XxionxX]

THIS IS MY BET

This is almost identical to what I have in mind.

I also feel that this may be an accurate depiction of the future. So when do we call 'bottom' and buy some cheap coin? 

My only reservation would be if the usd really does collapse, then all bets are off and I have no f'n idea what will happen.