Bitcoin already using too much power by 2020?

[masewild]

The unit cost of the electricity does not matter. The total cost of mining one block is similar to the  value in one block.

[blackmachinegun]

I think yes, many miners will quit after halving this summer cause it will be hard for them, in 2020 it will be much harder than now, that's why minrers moving to China.

are you sure if many miners out of bitcoin. it would make more powerful bitcoin? not that would reduce adopter of bitcoin? and of course it makes bitcoin is getting stronger? especially mining users or miners the numbers are very large?

[shinratensei_]

I just stumbled upon this article that claims Bitcoin could be consuming as much energy as Denmark by 2020  Since I gave up mining in 2014, I've almost forgotten just how much electricity goes into making Bitcoins. This got me wondering whether the devs are already working on a solution to this problem. Anyone knows what the plan is?

http://inhabitat.com/power-hungry-bitcoin-could-consume-as-much-energy-as-denmark-by-2020/

If Denmark using renewable energy like solar power plants, hydroelectric power plant,wind power plant I think it does not make a big problem. not if Denmark not using the renewable energy it's become a serious problem.

[wintermeasures]

I just stumbled upon this article that claims Bitcoin could be consuming as much energy as Denmark by 2020  Since I gave up mining in 2014, I've almost forgotten just how much electricity goes into making Bitcoins. This got me wondering whether the devs are already working on a solution to this problem. Anyone knows what the plan is?

http://inhabitat.com/power-hungry-bitcoin-could-consume-as-much-energy-as-denmark-by-2020/

I think in the future you will no bitcoin mining tools are more sophisticated and power-saving course. Because of the growing popularity of bitcoin there will be more innovations to develop mining hardware, and of course in 2020 you will use less electricity to mining hehe
Just my opinion, Thank you

[groll]

Yeah that would happen cause the hardware mining are continuing its production, Many will try to mine bitcoins by hardware miners, The energy will decrease because many miners are using hardware

[Rubberduckie]

Im hoping by 2020 the machines (asics) are using very little power so
everyone can mine coins

being in california I had to stop because power was so expensive I was
losing money.

[Cashew]

Denmark is a very small country, so not very alarming. Freedom as a cost. And can you remember how many electricity banks are consuming just with all the ATMs by the World ? That's just another anti-Bitcoin argument without any base.

[BurtW]

I think in the future you will no bitcoin mining tools are more sophisticated and power-saving course. Because of the growing popularity of bitcoin there will be more innovations to develop mining hardware, and of course in 2020 you will use less electricity to mining hehe
Just my opinion, Thank you

NOPE.  By design the Bitcoin network will use as much power as it can afford.  More efficient mining equipment does not change the amount of energy consumed.

Yeah that would happen cause the hardware mining are continuing its production, Many will try to mine bitcoins by hardware miners, The energy will decrease because many miners are using hardware

Wrong again.  Power consumption is driven by only one thing:  price.  The energy used will go up if the price goes up.  The only thing that will reduce the amount of energy consumed is a decrease in price.

Im hoping by 2020 the machines (asics) are using very little power so
everyone can mine coins

being in california I had to stop because power was so expensive I was
losing money.

Wrong again.  You will never be able to make a profit mining no matter how efficient the mining equipment becomes unless you are the only one with access to the more efficient equipment.  If everyone has access to the more efficient equipment then those with the cheaper power will make a profit and those, like yourself, with more expensive power will always lose money.

Sorry.

Denmark is a very small country, so not very alarming. Freedom as a cost. And can you remember how many electricity banks are consuming just with all the ATMs by the World ? That's just another anti-Bitcoin argument without any base.

Kind of.  Since the power consumption is driven by price there is a price at which the power consumption would become excessive.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

For example if BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

[satmas]

For example if BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

After July, the bock reward is reduced to 12.5. So that will just be 15% of the world power generation. After a few more halving, it will be even lower.

[BurtW]

After July, the bock reward is reduced to 12.5. So that will just be 15% of the world power generation. After a few more halving, it will be even lower.

Correct and true!  That is why I said "in this era"

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

      Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

Of course this is a vast oversimplification since the values of the USD the price of electricity vary over time and it is very hard to predict miners fees over time and to know the average gross profit margin of mining.

[BitsandBites]

2020 will be a year of the bitcoin everybody is saying that but if you want to know with year is for the bitcoin you have to see it by your self so i dont think it would happen in just 3 years that take time.

[BurtW]

2020 will be a year of the bitcoin everybody is saying that but if you want to know with year is for the bitcoin you have to see it by your self so i dont think it would happen in just 3 years that take time.

Just curious, what is your native language?

[MWesterweele]

Hmm.in year 2020 yes pretty sure that it will consume much power but not that much power.Bitcoin network it self dont consume that much power it's just like a normal company but tge miners do.Miners use much power if they are not using solar power to operate their mining machines and rigs.But if miner will use solar powered plant i think thats he solution to lessen bitcoin  energy comsumption by 2020

[groll]

Hmm.in year 2020 yes pretty sure that it will consume much power but not that much power.Bitcoin network it self dont consume that much power it's just like a normal company but tge miners do.Miners use much power if they are not using solar power to operate their mining machines and rigs.But if miner will use solar powered plant i think thats he solution to lessen bitcoin  energy comsumption by 2020

Your conclusions are true, If the hardware miners use solar panel/solar energy, The Miners wouldnt affect the Electic energy so much, Plus if they used Solar power the are actualy lessening their electrical energy charges

[BurtW]

I am so sick of hearing that if you use solar power it is somehow not using power.  Power is power.  If you build a coal fired power plant the power produced can be used for Bitcoin mining or something else.  If you build a solar or wind or tide or geothermal plant then the power produce can also be used for Bitcoin mining or something else.  Power consumption is power consumption.  Renewable energy is not free, in fact it costs more than coal or natural gas.

Solar power is not some sort of "magical" energy that if you use it you are not using energy so that your mining equipment uses less energy.  Bullshit.

[Mandoy]

I just stumbled upon this article that claims Bitcoin could be consuming as much energy as Denmark by 2020  Since I gave up mining in 2014, I've almost forgotten just how much electricity goes into making Bitcoins. This got me wondering whether the devs are already working on a solution to this problem. Anyone knows what the plan is?

http://inhabitat.com/power-hungry-bitcoin-could-consume-as-much-energy-as-denmark-by-2020/

It simply means that in the near future almost everybody will use bitcoin in their transactions and with high demands to bitcoins mining farms will pop out like mushrooms not only in a single country but the whole world.

[awesome31312]

Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.

[Mandoy]

Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.

We all hope that would be true and it will be great but if otherwise happens its another thing around.

[awesome31312]

Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.

We all hope that would be true and it will be great but if otherwise happens its another thing around.

There are so many other factors contributing to pollution of the environment. Why are we not saying anything about them?

[Mandoy]

Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.

We all hope that would be true and it will be great but if otherwise happens its another thing around.

There are so many other factors contributing to pollution of the environment. Why are we not saying anything about them?

I believe its because people are busy finding money to avail of their daily needs, environment is not a priority for almost all individual.