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Author Topic: Halving guide for heroes: Why halving is priced in now  (Read 493 times)
talks_cheep
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April 08, 2016, 12:03:10 AM
 #1

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.  

If you're mining, you likely already own coins, and increasing hash power just drives the price up of the ones you already have as well.  Trust me, I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins, I'm an expert on this from firsthand experience.  Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.  After the halving, the miner profitability drops in half.  If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.

Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off.  It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving.  Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway.  There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price of around a 410 floor.  

No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand.  Mining is a form of demand.  Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion.  Around 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the hard part, the putting money up front to capitalize the accumulation period, is already done.  Now the people who have accumulated just wait for inflation to drop, like it's about to do, then send the market higher.  The market will move through both predictable laws of economics and whale engineering at the same time.


Mining has no effect on the bitcoin price. You can turn off your miners and no one will care; you can turn on your miners and no one will still care. Now, if ALL MINERS decide to turn ALL mining gears off, then it will probably impact the price, but that will NEVER happen, so let's not go there.

On the other hand, bitcoin price has a tremendous impact on mining. We've seen it in 2015 when bitcoin price was in the toilet, the hashrate stayed about the same or went up a little.

Miners can only generate about 1440 bitcoins a day, when you consider that a Chinese exchange can digest 1440 coins in one minute, you can see the futility of argument about mining affecting bitcoin price.

Some hero/legendary members are so short-sighted or so bulltardy that they refuse to see the truth, or they see and know the truth but can only spew lies upon lies for their personal benefit.

As for the market price being what it is, almost double since January 2016, the only reasonable explanation is the Halving in July. Everyone and their grandmothers know what's coming. Traders, seeking only profit, must engage proactively or else they will be blind-sided, so they buy more than they sell, precisely because they know it's about to become a little more scarce.

Beware of heroes/legendary members who tout only one side of the argument, they come with hidden agendas and vested interest.

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April 08, 2016, 12:18:37 AM
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All it takes is anyone clicking your post history and seeing 500 posts in a row of spamming nothing but "the price will crash to 0 any second!" to know you're a full of shit, banker propaganda shill account.  You were even spamming the price was going to crash to 0 when it was $200, then it went up to $500.

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1Referee
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April 08, 2016, 01:25:54 AM
 #3

All it takes is anyone clicking your post history and seeing 500 posts in a row of spamming nothing but "the price will crash to 0 any second!" to know you're a full of shit, banker propaganda shill account.  You were even spamming the price was going to crash to 0 when it was $200, then it went up to $500.

It's probably a back-up account belonging to kwukduck. They spew the same sort of negativity through all their posts and threads. Glad not many people take them serious.

talks_cheep
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April 08, 2016, 01:59:49 AM
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Both r0ach and 1referee are so wrong. Ad hominem is a fallacy. I am not kwukduk, sometimes I agree with him, other times I don't agree with kuwkduk. All I want to do is to bring balance to the forum, to counter the mindless bulltardry that's prevalent in the forum, to protect the innocents and the noobs. These attacks by bulltards like r0ach and 1referee are expected. Bring it on! Your true colors are showing, you're nothing but bullies.

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April 08, 2016, 02:36:41 AM
 #5

I am beginning to think more and more than halving is priced too. Mostly because everybody is talking about it and how it will make the price raise...

However, perhaps there is a huge number of people who are waiting to buy just before, and that can make the price raise too.

solitude
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April 08, 2016, 04:32:02 AM
 #6

Posts by shill accounts such as OPs only make me want to buy more bitcoins, even though I could probably retire on the bitcoins I currently own if the price of bitcoin increases even a modest amount.

Hardly anyone speaks English on this forum.
iram66680
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April 08, 2016, 04:42:14 AM
 #7

I never understand why individuals are wanting under cut others in their deviant ways trying to curve the price in their favours  Roll Eyes It won't happen, people are smarter than that to believe what they hear from anybody without any creditable information to back up what they are saying.

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April 08, 2016, 08:53:06 AM
 #8

As for the market price being what it is, almost double since January 2016, the only reasonable explanation is the Halving in July. Everyone and their grandmothers know what's coming. Traders, seeking only profit, must engage proactively or else they will be blind-sided, so they buy more than they sell, precisely because they know it's about to become a little more scarce.

While I agree that mining has no affect on the price. I can't agree that the only explanation for the price increase is anticipation of a price increase due to the halving. That's like saying that the only explanation for UFOs is the existence of beings from another planet.

You can't claim that anticipation of the halving is a reasonable explanation without reasonable evidence, and also you can't claim that another explanation is not reasonable without evidence.

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April 08, 2016, 12:57:34 PM
 #9

All it takes is anyone clicking your post history and seeing 500 posts in a row of spamming nothing but "the price will crash to 0 any second!" to know you're a full of shit, banker propaganda shill account.  You were even spamming the price was going to crash to 0 when it was $200, then it went up to $500.


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