BFL Jalapeno coins per day in a few months?

[Rampion]

I want to make my first investment in mining buying a BFL Jalapeno. I've read that, if ordered now, they will be shipped around April.

I know it's pure guessing, but how many BTC per day do you estimate one of this Jalapeno units will make between April - October 2013?

Currently the calculators (http://allchains.info/calc.html) say 0.691BTC x day. I guess that as soon as the first ASIC arrive to the miners the difficulty will grow dramatically. Would it be a safe guess to consider 0,07btc per day with a Jalapeno, from April to October?

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[punin]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

[Rampion]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

[smoothie]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

yup. those who preordered in June should have just held bitcoins they would be almost 500% in profit right now if they had.

suckerz.... lol 

[mobodick]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..

[Atruk]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

Generally that's almost always the case.

[Rampion]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..

Could you please elaborate?

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

Generally that's almost always the case.

Well, that's a pity. I was willing to invest on the stability of the network, while getting a few bitcoins in exchange. I don't want to make a profit, nor to convert the BTC to fiat, but at least I would like to recoup the investment in BTC in a reasonable timing. The truth is that, if it's true that is more convenient to buy than to mine, I don't understand the mining profitability charts I've seen (almost 20% monthly ROI? WTF?), and the amount of people preordering ASIC like crazy.

[lassdas]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..

Here you go:

Just running some numbers here..
 
Avalon batch 1:  20 Thash
Avalon batch 2:  40 Thash
Avalon tradins:   20 Thash (trade ins are not part of batch 2.)
 
Total Avalon by May:  80 Thash
 
BFL --  with the pictures that were recently posted of the BFL (non-asic-populated) boards, I'm now in the camp that I believe BFL will be shipping a product that at least comes close to their stated goals of 7.5 Ghash per chip.  Having said that, I've seen batch numbers ranging from 15K chips to 100K chips..  At this point the most plausible I've seen are an initial batch of 15K, followed closely by another 15K followed by a 35K batch...  Going with a gut feeling partially based on all the BFL adds I'm seeing, and how active their forums are, I'm thinking they have all 3 batches sold.  So, allowing for some defects, and rounding I'm guessing:
 
BFL batch 1:  100 Thash
BFL batch 2:  100 Thash
BFL batch 3:  220 Thash
 
Total BFL by may:  420 Thash
 
Soo..  the way I see it, there is already 500 Thash of existing paid for pre-orders.   Factoring in existing FPGA's, free electric GPU's, Goliath, other ASICs, aliens from Omnicron, and what-not, it looks to me like if you were to order an ASIC right now, the difficulty would be at least 75MM by the time you got it.  

Let's just assume those numbers are close,
current network is ~25TH/s, those 500TH/s that probably go online within the next couple of month are 20times as much,
take the current expected reward of 0.691BTC/day and divide it by 21 and you'll end up with ~0.033BTC/day.

Is that mathematics enough for you?  

Still pure speculation of course, we might see even more than 500TH/s, or (which is unlikely) less and noone really knows on what timeframe those ressources will be added to the network, might be 1 month, or 6, or more.

[DeathAndTaxes]

In the long run 0.03 BTC is probably a good guess (about as good as we can make given the limited info available).  Now depending on how soon you get your Jalapeno the initial rate may be higher but it will trend downward and network size increases.

So if you were one of the lucky ones to be in Batch 1 you might get (hypothetically) say 0.2 BTC the first month, the 0.1 BTC the next month, then a couple months at ~0.06 BTC then a couple months at 0.4 BTC before settling at 0.03 BTC.  If you are thinking of preordering today then you likely are looking at 0.03 BTC from month 1 (because network will have already grown long before you get your miner).

Mining isn't a get rich scheme. 

[allinvain]

Let the race to the bottom begin.

The real winners in this game will be the very first Avalon miners and ASICMiner share owners - and also jgarzik cause he's the only person currently confirmed to have an Avalon miner in use.

[Atruk]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

Generally that's almost always the case.

Well, that's a pity. I was willing to invest on the stability of the network, while getting a few bitcoins in exchange. I don't want to make a profit, nor to convert the BTC to fiat, but at least I would like to recoup the investment in BTC in a reasonable timing. The truth is that, if it's true that is more convenient to buy than to mine, I don't understand the mining profitability charts I've seen (almost 20% monthly ROI? WTF?), and the amount of people preordering ASIC like crazy.

In the long run netting 0.03 BTC per day from a small mining investment like a Jalapeno, probably isn't a bad investment. It will add up to something over time, and people run much more expensive GPUs for less. Investing in the security of the network and getting some ROI is a good reason to get something like a Jalapeno, but at this point it shouldn't be long before they are ready to start shipping so waiting for that milestone is probably worth it to avoid paying for vaporware. Preordering now would probably stick you near the back of the cue anyway, so waiting until they cut through that a bit and can give you a more solid shipping date would be a prudent move.

Future mining profitability charts at this point are making a lot of assumptions, because they have to. Investing in a more powerful mining apparatus might help a bit in that 0.03 looks so small, then again $150 is awfully small as well for a money minting machine. The important things you need to weigh are your definitions of recouping the investment and a reasonable frame of time.

[os2sam]

Well, that's a pity. I was willing to invest on the stability of the network, while getting a few bitcoins in exchange. I don't want to make a profit, nor to convert the BTC to fiat, but at least I would like to recoup the investment in BTC in a reasonable timing.

Well if that is indeed the case then get a Jalapeno or MiniSC hook it up and forget about it.  They consume very little power and take up very little space.

I think the Bitcoin price surge we've seen since the Avalon release will continue, albeit at a lower rate.  So your Mined, or purchased, BTC's will increase in value and you will recoup your equipment investment.

I'm in the same boat as you.
Sam

[bitcoindaddy]

Now, imagine the price of bitcoin goes back to 5 USD. If you're the type of person that worries about such things, mining is not for you.

[crazyates]

Now, imagine the price of bitcoin goes back to 5 USD. If you're the type of person that worries about such things, mining is not for you.

Ugh I had a terrible dream last night that the price had dropped from $23 to $0.50 in one night. I about shit myself when I woke up, as I actually thought it was real.

Point: This is actually a valid concern for a potential miner.

[os2sam]

Now, imagine the price of bitcoin goes back to 5 USD. If you're the type of person that worries about such things, mining is not for you.

Ugh I had a terrible dream last night that the price had dropped from $23 to $0.50 in one night. I about shit myself when I woke up, as I actually thought it was real.

Point: This is actually a valid concern for a potential miner.

That's why it's a good idea to have a buy order at certain thresholds with your favorite exchange.

[thoughtfan]

...those who preordered in June should have just held bitcoins they would be almost 500% in profit right now if they had.

suckerz.... lol 

There's more than one reason to mine.  If BFL comes good and I get a couple of ASICs I'll be happy to make something off them if and for however long it is worth it in terms of electricity consumption but I also recently read it may be possible to have ASICs for the longer term off line, not hashing or consuming, on stand-by to be brought into play if and when there is an attack and the 'reserve army' of ASICs need to get to work to protect Bitcoin.  It's all very well most people putting their money into Bitcoin instead of mining but we are and will remain for some time vulnerable to attack and I'm quite happy to 'be a sucker' having a role in keeping your Bitcoin safe as well as my own;)

[Monster Tent]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..

Could you please elaborate?

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Well, that's disappointing. Then it's much more convenient to simply buy bitcoins

Generally that's almost always the case.

Well, that's a pity. I was willing to invest on the stability of the network, while getting a few bitcoins in exchange. I don't want to make a profit, nor to convert the BTC to fiat, but at least I would like to recoup the investment in BTC in a reasonable timing. The truth is that, if it's true that is more convenient to buy than to mine, I don't understand the mining profitability charts I've seen (almost 20% monthly ROI? WTF?), and the amount of people preordering ASIC like crazy.

Mining profitability charts are usually released by people selling mining bonds so they can scam more people out of bitcoins.

[mobodick]

I'd say you'd average at around 0.03BTC per day, if you're lucky.

Mathematics or it didn't happen..

Here you go:

Just running some numbers here..
 
Avalon batch 1:  20 Thash
Avalon batch 2:  40 Thash
Avalon tradins:   20 Thash (trade ins are not part of batch 2.)
 
Total Avalon by May:  80 Thash
 
BFL --  with the pictures that were recently posted of the BFL (non-asic-populated) boards, I'm now in the camp that I believe BFL will be shipping a product that at least comes close to their stated goals of 7.5 Ghash per chip.  Having said that, I've seen batch numbers ranging from 15K chips to 100K chips..  At this point the most plausible I've seen are an initial batch of 15K, followed closely by another 15K followed by a 35K batch...  Going with a gut feeling partially based on all the BFL adds I'm seeing, and how active their forums are, I'm thinking they have all 3 batches sold.  So, allowing for some defects, and rounding I'm guessing:
 
BFL batch 1:  100 Thash
BFL batch 2:  100 Thash
BFL batch 3:  220 Thash
 
Total BFL by may:  420 Thash
 
Soo..  the way I see it, there is already 500 Thash of existing paid for pre-orders.   Factoring in existing FPGA's, free electric GPU's, Goliath, other ASICs, aliens from Omnicron, and what-not, it looks to me like if you were to order an ASIC right now, the difficulty would be at least 75MM by the time you got it.  

Let's just assume those numbers are close,
current network is ~25TH/s, those 500TH/s that probably go online within the next couple of month are 20times as much,
take the current expected reward of 0.691BTC/day and divide it by 21 and you'll end up with ~0.033BTC/day.

Is that mathematics enough for you?  

Still pure speculation of course, we might see even more than 500TH/s, or (which is unlikely) less and noone really knows on what timeframe those ressources will be added to the network, might be 1 month, or 6, or more.

This was EXACTLY what i asked for, so, yeah, very cool