Silver/BTC Price Alert -- Why every investor needs TU.SILVER now!

[usagi]

Hello, I'd like to issue an emergency price alert. Based on my analysis I've detected a top/reversal in progress.

I also believe an excellent way to play this trade is to buy SILVER -- either physical silver, or a fund like SaltySpitoon's LTC-SILVER, or my own TU.SILVER on BitFunder.

Please read this report.
http://kongzi.ca/silver/20130212TSR.pdf

Please let me know what you think of this analysis. I've been watching this situation for a while and it has begin to concern me greatly. This can't go on forever. I believe when the reversal hits it will be violent and without mercy.

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[Indemnified]

Hello, I'd like to issue an emergency price alert. Based on my analysis I've detected a top/reversal in progress.

I also believe an excellent way to play this trade is to buy SILVER -- either physical silver, or a fund like SaltySpitoon's LTC-SILVER, or my own TU.SILVER on BitFunder.

Please read this report.
http://kongzi.ca/silver/20130212TSR.pdf

I urge you to take advantage of this free information. Please let me know what you think of this analysis. I've been watching this situation for a while and it has begin to concern me greatly. This can't go on forever. I believe when the reversal hits it will be violent and without mercy.

Quote from the report:
"In the background we see the rise of ASICS and a massive influx of new BTC, which will almost certainly be sold and are very likely to drive the price down"

What is that? The influx of new bitcoin will remain approximately constant at 25 per 10 minutes until it drops to 12.5 per 10 minutes.

[usagi]

Hello, I'd like to issue an emergency price alert. Based on my analysis I've detected a top/reversal in progress.

I also believe an excellent way to play this trade is to buy SILVER -- either physical silver, or a fund like SaltySpitoon's LTC-SILVER, or my own TU.SILVER on BitFunder.

Please read this report.
http://kongzi.ca/silver/20130212TSR.pdf

I urge you to take advantage of this free information. Please let me know what you think of this analysis. I've been watching this situation for a while and it has begin to concern me greatly. This can't go on forever. I believe when the reversal hits it will be violent and without mercy.

Quote from the report:
"In the background we see the rise of ASICS and a massive influx of new BTC, which will almost certainly be sold and are very likely to drive the price down"

What is that? The influx of new bitcoin will remain approximately constant at 25 per 10 minutes until it drops to 12.5 per 10 minutes.

Oh you're right, good catch. I posted the correction. Thanks!

It's my opinion that ASIC miners (and manufacturers who took bitcoins for orders) will sell those BTC over the next month. In fact in retrospect it appears as if people have been holding on to BTC to buy ASICs (causing the rise in the first place). Now that ASICs are out and orders for ASICs are being processed I expect the top will be put in this week.

[Deprived]

It's my opinion that ASIC miners (and manufacturers who took bitcoins for orders) will sell those BTC over the next month. In fact in retrospect it appears as if people have been holding on to BTC to buy ASICs (causing the rise in the first place). Now that ASICs are out and orders for ASICs are being processed I expect the top will be put in this week.

Manufacturers SHOULD have been converting BTC into USD as soon as they took orders - as ASICs were priced in USD and the only way to ensure getting the required USD is to convert immediately on receipt.  There was no sign of any drop when Avalon processed their batch 2 - not sure when YOU think they'll be selling batch 3 but it's unlikley to be in next few weeks.

ASICMINER's ASICs should be online in the next week - but the first batch of mined BTC from that gets paid out in dividends so not sure why that would cause a drop in BTC price.  There's actually a counter argument that the price of BTC will rise when ASICs hit.  It gos something like this.

Your assertion only makes sense if the ASIC-mined BTC will be sold whilst the previously GPU/FPGA mined ones weren't (if they were being sold already then there's no change).  But if the BTC being mined with GPUs/FPGAs WEREN'T being sold previously then those people no longer have a mined source for the BTC they were either hoarding or using and have to BUY them - increasing demand.

That argument is just as specious as your argument in the opposite direction - the single big factor in which way the price moves has nothign to do with ASICs or mined BTCs.  It's simply whether the market collectively BELIEVES BTC will rise or not.  BTC is still, at root, a speculative currency - with almost no prices fixed in BTC to provide reference points for value.

Oh - and if you strongly believe BTC will fall (by any significant amount) in the short-term then investing in fiat/silver/gold is NOT the way to go.  Leveraging your capital via options is the way to maximise profit.  Investing BTC into Silver/Gold makes more sense if you believe (but are not sure that) BTC will fall in the medium term - if you believe it will fall in the long-term then not sure what you're even doing on the forum (as you're wasting your time on a project - BTC - that you believe will fail).

[usagi]

Your assertion only makes sense if the ASIC-mined BTC will be sold whilst the previously GPU/FPGA mined ones weren't (if they were being sold already then there's no change).  But if the BTC being mined with GPUs/FPGAs WEREN'T being sold previously then those people no longer have a mined source for the BTC they were either hoarding or using and have to BUY them - increasing demand.

The charts and discussion in the report discuss new buyers entering the market around Jan 7th and exiting around the 24th. ASIC manufacturers are just a red herring.

...if you strongly believe BTC will fall (by any significant amount) in the short-term then investing in fiat/silver/gold is NOT the way to go.  Leveraging your capital via options is the way to maximise profit.  Investing BTC into Silver/Gold makes more sense if you believe (but are not sure that) BTC will fall in the medium term - if you believe it will fall in the long-term then not sure what you're even doing on the forum (as you're wasting your time on a project - BTC - that you believe will fail).

Yes, leveraging into options is always more profitable than buying the underlying commodity so long as you don't get a margin call. Other problems with leverage include the level of expertise you need to trade options successfully and the amount of money required (upwards of $50,000) before you can get margin. This places such trades out of reach of most bitcoin investors.

The report recommends silver because there's a double play of silver rising and bitcoin falling. This alignment of the stars will, I believe, present the trade of the year. It will be like getting one of the first ASICs. The main difference is anyone can participate in this trade. At any time, even with no technical expertise and only a small amount of BTC. So it's just a better trade overall than options IMO.

Actually as a fund manager yourself can you share your analysis of TU.SILVER? I'd be interested to know if ATF has any or is planning to buy For curiosity's sake I guess.

[usagi]

Very important video regarding precious metals markets:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK-dcCeDrWI

This is a GREAT video, one of the best i've seen recently.

[Deprived]

Yes, leveraging into options is always more profitable than buying the underlying commodity so long as you don't get a margin call. Other problems with leverage include the level of expertise you need to trade options successfully and the amount of money required (upwards of $50,000) before you can get margin. This places such trades out of reach of most bitcoin investors.

Wasn't thinking of selling silver options - was thinking more of buying BTC Puts.  That doesn't require large capital - anyone can do it on MPEx via CoinBR or I think on Bitfinex too.  If you believe BTC will fall to around $16 then you could make far more doing that then buying into silver (if you're right of course - if wrong then you make a loss).  For short-term profit going into silver rather than fiat is hard to pull off - as you have two spreads to deal with plus a 1% sellers fee on Bitfunder (less if you've done 50 BTC or more of sales this quarter).  Plus although there's a very tight spread there's no volume available near the middle - just over 3 BTC worth at .16xm a few at .17x (5% + higher) then no more until over 10% above mid-range.

Liquidity isn't provided by having a small ask and a small bid near one another - it's provided by being able to trade decent volumes at a tight spread.  If someone wants to take your advice and invest 1 BTC they can do it, if they want to try it with more than about 3 BTC then the spread just on buying is going to more than wipe out the 5% rise in silver you predict  - making fiat (where they can get a very tight range on volume) more profitable.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Really? If you feel like bitcoin is going to drop in value, short BTC..

Or long it - with 5 leverage, I made 20% in about an hour.

[usagi]

Yes, leveraging into options is always more profitable than buying the underlying commodity so long as you don't get a margin call. Other problems with leverage include the level of expertise you need to trade options successfully and the amount of money required (upwards of $50,000) before you can get margin. This places such trades out of reach of most bitcoin investors.

Wasn't thinking of selling silver options - was thinking more of buying BTC Puts.  That doesn't require large capital - anyone can do it on MPEx via CoinBR or I think on Bitfinex too.  If you believe BTC will fall to around $16 then you could make far more doing that then buying into silver (if you're right of course - if wrong then you make a loss).

Sure, you could make a loss in a BTC put just like you could in silver. My only point here is that buying silver in BTC plays both sides of the fence; you profit in BTC both from a rise in the price of silver and form the fall in the price of BTC. That's why buying silver is better than simply shorting/buying puts.

For short-term profit going into silver rather than fiat is hard to pull off - as you have two spreads to deal with plus a 1% sellers fee on Bitfunder (less if you've done 50 BTC or more of sales this quarter).  Plus although there's a very tight spread there's no volume available near the middle - just over 3 BTC worth at .16xm a few at .17x (5% + higher) then no more until over 10% above mid-range.

The solution to that is to make a market order. Right now there are no outsiders with market orders -- the market orders you see on TU.SILVER are price guides I've put up there based on the silver price and mt. gox weighted average, which I chart as a hobby. For example the inner bid is 10 x 0.1601 & the ask is 10 x 0.1613, or less than 0.5%.

This was the big volume you saw last week; people sending me PMs and chatting with me on IRC asking me to fill large orders (for example one investor bought 100 shares). I'm willing to stand by these prices, it's just that there are no market orders right now.

[MPOE-PR]

Bitcoin and silver price to intersect in February

Well fwiw odds BTC price touches silver this month are something like 2:1.

Ps usagi: urging people to take advantage of information may well land you in hot water.

[usagi]

Bitcoin and silver price to intersect in February

Well fwiw odds BTC price touches silver this month are something like 2:1.

Ps usagi: urging people to take advantage of information may well land you in hot water.

Thanks for the advice. I appreciate you looking out for me. Also thanks for the tip on the bet, I put my money where my mouth is on this one.