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Author Topic: bubble or bulltrap?  (Read 7055 times)
MJGrae
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February 13, 2013, 04:39:43 PM
 #41

"tactical (r)eallocation once a week or so" is effectively daytrading just on a bit longer timeframe. Some intelligence is required, lol, to realize that if one uses euphemisms it does not change the reality.

Also claimed likehood of a greater return is a very arguable, could as well be an illusion. With greater rewards there are usually greater risks.


Day trading isn't day trading if it isn't day trading, sorry to tell you.

Also, tell that to the people who now have an annual return of ~2% over the past decade because they just never paid attention to their portfolio as compared to the people that had certain targets and reallocated periodically based on analyzing their situation that are +8% or more over the past decade on an annual basis -even some of those who are long only-.

The buy-and-hold forever strategy might -sometimes- work with stocks/bonds/cash because you have inflows from dividends & interest payments that add to your total return. To think that you can be long-only on a zero-payment coupon and consistently outperform someone who actively, periodically (not constantly, mind you), positions themselves against statistically significant risk is a joke.

-> Finance/Investment major. I can throw the math up for you if I have time later. But I guarantee you that I've done more research into the subject and have more evidence behind my claims than you do.

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Vladimir
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February 13, 2013, 04:41:53 PM
 #42

-> Finance/Investment major. I can throw the math up for you if I have time later. But I guarantee you that I've done more research into the subject and have more evidence behind my claims than you do.

Ohh vigor of youth...

Tell me that you have traded options, for example, for 10 years or so. I might be impressed then.

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MJGrae
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February 13, 2013, 04:47:49 PM
 #43

-> Finance/Investment major. I can throw the math up for you if I have time later. But I guarantee you that I've done more research into the subject and have more evidence behind my claims than you do.

Ohh vigor of youth...

Tell me that you have traded options, for example, for 10 years or so. I might be impressed then.


Eh, options for about two years, currencies for 3-4, stocks for 5-6.

Relevant: Oh hey, this is the kind of strategy I'm talking about. Though they weren't around for the full decade, but they were here for 2008, and pay special attention to that number, as well as the annualized return for the past five years. Tactical Allocation, my friend. And a very simple one at that. They reallocate once a month.


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February 13, 2013, 05:00:05 PM
 #44

You call that math?

"Past performance does not guarantee future results" Did they teach you that in your Finance major? I can give you virtually infinite number of investing strategies that were successful in the past. Once that WILL BE succesful in the future are rather very different animal.

Now show me the math describing human emotions, fear and greed specifically. Why do you think that you will be able to pick tops and bottoms consistently when there are real money on the line. Theory and practice are two very different things.

Explain how come wast majority of investment funds with all their smarts and financial majors are unable to outperform S&P.

Quote
"A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts."
http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2002/05/08/5144/

I would think that a monkey throwing dart into calendar would do better than to pick tops and bottoms, on whatever time frame, than wast majority of Bitcoiners (those not extremely lucky ones).







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MJGrae
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February 13, 2013, 05:10:33 PM
 #45

You call that math?

"Past performance does not guarantee future results" Did they teach you that in your Finance major? I can give you virtually infinite number of investing strategies that were successful in the past. Once that WILL BE succesful in the future are rather very different animal.

1. Yes, I know that full well. But past performance informs future decisions as best as it can. I hope you know that, because we AREN'T monkeys throwing darts. Any moron that goes into investing without looking at the historical nature of it is just that, a moron. I hope you've been taught THAT much.

2. I said I would put the math up later IF I HAD TIME. That requires a significant investment of my time which I can't do right now. Pictures are quick.

Quote
Now show me the math describing human emotions, fear and greed specifically. Why do you think that you will be able to pick tops and bottoms consistently when there are real money on the line. Theory and practice are two very different things.

You, like other greedy and then fearful investors think it's about picking tops and bottoms, which it is not. It's about catching more of the upside than you catch of the downside. Which requires a whole different set of theories, models, and ideologies which you are obviously not familiar with.

Quote
Explain how come wast majority of investment funds with all their smarts are unable to outperform S&P.

Quote
"A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts."
http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2002/05/08/5144/

I would think that a monkey throwing dart into calendar would do better than to pick tops and bottoms, on whatever time frame, than wast majority of Bitcoiners (those not extremely lucky ones).


2. That's because you have no idea what actual long-term investing is about. Go invest 100% in the S&P, please. I'll be waiting for you to commit suicide the next time it crashes because of how great the risk is. The biggest part of investment management is RISK MANAGEMENT. Those managers aren't just there to earn you the greatest return over time, but to help make sure that you can still afford a bowl of oatmeal the next time the market crashes. Those managers may not earn a greater total return than the S&P, but a good manager will damn sure not lose as much as the S&P when it goes down.
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February 13, 2013, 05:18:40 PM
Last edit: February 13, 2013, 05:28:46 PM by Vladimir
 #46

You make too many incorrect assumptions about other people my friend. Remember there is an ass in assumption. I think I'll postpone this conversation now ... get back to me in a decade or two.

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February 13, 2013, 05:20:18 PM
 #47

here's the best long term hedged pair trade for you guys:  long Bitcoin:short S&P.

edit:  there's a very good chance you'll win on both ends of this trade.
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February 13, 2013, 05:30:35 PM
 #48

Some could actually argue that some intelligence is required to be able to make a conscious decision to not daytrade Bitcoin.


Let's not forget that there's a difference between day trading and tactical (re)allocation once a week or so. Just because I follow the charts daily doesn't mean I react to them as a day trader would. Some could argue that some intelligence is required to realize that you should periodically re-position your savings vehicle so that it has the least likelihood of losing value and a greater likelihood of greater return.

I like this guy he has a brain. It is easier for people to be mentally lazy. So just saying BTC will always go up and that you can have a financial plan that no intellegence is required for is popular. When BTC hit 20 or so. I took all of my money out of it and put it into inventory for my business. I get a 300-400% return with nearly zero risk. So you take advantage of wealth cycles. When the price stabilizes I will get back in.   
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February 13, 2013, 06:31:52 PM
 #49

I took all of my money out of it and put it into inventory for my business. I get a 300-400% return with nearly zero risk. So you take advantage of wealth cycles.

Cheesy Your business is gambling or drug smuggling? Since you are saying "zero risk", I can safely deduce that you are a king of some small african country, smuggling drugs using submarines. 

Congratulations, you really don't need bitcoins then!

i am satoshi
sublime5447
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February 13, 2013, 07:20:55 PM
 #50

I took all of my money out of it and put it into inventory for my business. I get a 300-400% return with nearly zero risk. So you take advantage of wealth cycles.

Cheesy Your business is gambling or drug smuggling? Since you are saying "zero risk", I can safely deduce that you are a king of some small african country, smuggling drugs using submarines.  

Congratulations, you really don't need bitcoins then!

 Smiley No that is very high risk. You are right I dont need BTC with or without it I will be fine. My business is salvaging pleasure boats. I buy them with bad transoms or engines or out drives then strip them down for parts.  
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February 13, 2013, 07:28:13 PM
 #51

No that is very high risk.

Not if you are a king - you can just make it legal in your jurisdiction.

i am satoshi
ajk
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February 13, 2013, 09:36:04 PM
 #52

Smiley No that is very high risk. You are right I dont need BTC with or without it I will be fine. My business is salvaging pleasure boats. I buy them with bad transoms or engines or out drives then strip them down for parts.  

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February 13, 2013, 10:37:15 PM
 #53

here's the best long term hedged pair trade for you guys:  long Bitcoin:short S&P.

edit:  there's a very good chance you'll win on both ends of this trade.

I'm with you on this one Cypher, although I'm leveraged short on the S&P (as I suspect you might be too) so it's not really a perfect hedge for me.  I'm hoping to win on both sides of the trade but we'll see, haven't quit my day job.... yet.

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February 13, 2013, 11:15:58 PM
 #54

here's the best long term hedged pair trade for you guys:  long Bitcoin:short S&P.

edit:  there's a very good chance you'll win on both ends of this trade.

I'm with you on this one Cypher, although I'm leveraged short on the S&P (as I suspect you might be too) so it's not really a perfect hedge for me.  I'm hoping to win on both sides of the trade but we'll see, haven't quit my day job.... yet.

great minds think alike.
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February 14, 2013, 01:43:18 AM
 #55

and the verdict: bulltrap


this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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February 14, 2013, 03:09:08 AM
 #56

A classic sweep stop Cheesy

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February 14, 2013, 04:42:16 AM
 #57

and the verdict: bulltrap

Hmm...

Definition of 'Bull Trap'
A false signal indicating that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp#ixzz2KqPT5SHR

so it's looking more like a beartrap now, huh? Undecided

i'm referring here to a misleading bullish breakout of a price channel, which has the same psychological effect. bulls buy for renewed rally, but the price just needed the momentum to correct.

anyway, with the buying pressure so strong (we've already retraced 100% of the correction!), we may indeed get a bubble top after all.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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marcus_of_augustus
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February 14, 2013, 04:42:50 AM
 #58

A classic sweep stop Cheesy

I dunno .. that could be a one hell of a huge stilletto ... means we are heading higher, like much higher north of $40.

I was expecting correction to $20, but that might be all we get is what we saw today. Next stop $32 ... choo-choo.

MJGrae
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February 14, 2013, 05:14:23 AM
 #59

A classic sweep stop Cheesy

I dunno .. that could be a one hell of a huge stilletto ... means we are heading higher, like much higher north of $40.

I was expecting correction to $20, but that might be all we get is what we saw today. Next stop $32 ... choo-choo.

One hell of a stiletto indeed. Very curious. We still have that upper resistance to deal with, though. Curious, curious. I definitely didn't expect that quick of a move back up.
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February 14, 2013, 09:30:26 AM
 #60

Now we had a correction bears were longing for so much, sic. Biz as usual now.

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