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Author Topic: MyriadCoins.com odds just don't seem right  (Read 346 times)
nrlafd
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February 12, 2013, 01:58:22 PM
 #1

Below is a copy of my bet at MyriadCoins.com.   If my chances of winning were 88% then did I really have to be within 4400 of the chosen number?   Just doing simple math it seems like I'd only have to be within about 8800 of the chosen number assuming there are 9999 possibilities.  Can anyone explain why my rough estimation is so far off?
Also where do you go to use the hash to verify the outcome?  I know the numbers wrap around and it just occurred to me that 4400 is exactly half of 8800 but I'm still not getting it?!?!

============ cut and pasted from http://myriadcoins.com/ =====================
Set your wager amount and choose your win rate. Guess close enough to the predetermined number to win!
Thank you for sending 0.08BTC to 1L3ozyJ9Se7uuoXezfKqvETLtQfZEXbZPR! Unfortunately, you are not a winner.
Guess: 3003, Number: 7487, Distance: 4484, Max Distance: 4400
sha256('XJsqRICq/I2013-02-12 08:04:56 7487') = 099f50d73a4e419febaaa36a01ef48e7d5e130f1b6d0579f6e273236cdc41fb4
Click here to refresh the status of this game.
Start new game!
 
BET AMOUNT
 0.08 BTC
WIN AMOUNT
 0.09 BTC

You have a 88.00% chance of winning. In order to win, your guess must be within 4400 of our chosen number. Numbers do wrap around.

Myriad Coins is in Beta. Questions and feedback at Bitcoin Talk
099f50d73a4e419febaaa36a01ef48e7d5e130f1b6d0579f6e273236cdc41fb4
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BitVegas
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February 12, 2013, 04:13:53 PM
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I only looked into this very briefly so I may be wrong but it seams that the 'distance' is how many numbers the outcome can be below or above your chosen number. So it is infact 8800

It also wraps around. So if you choose 1000 and the outcome is 9000 you still win as when it is checking 4400 below the number it resets to 9999 after it hits zero.

Like I said I only looked at this very briefly but that was my understanding.

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February 18, 2013, 02:07:30 AM
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Thanks. I get it now.   Might it be more fun to allow the player to choose whether he wants to guess over or under the lucky number and by how much? just thinking.
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