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 Author Topic: Difficulty to Network Hashrate Calculator?  (Read 8115 times)
Mousepotato
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 February 12, 2013, 02:24:30 PM

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is there a calculator out there that estimates difficulty based on total network hash rate? Right now I'm kind of reverse-engineering it by using the Allchains calculator by plugging in various hash rates and difficulties until I arrive at 3600 coins/day but it's kind of a PITA. Is there an easier way?

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deepceleron
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 February 12, 2013, 02:39:49 PM

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Difficulty * 4295032833.0 / 600 = estimated hash rate

Difficulty = 600 / 4295032833.0 * estimated hash rate (hash/s)

Difficulty = 139.6962545641144970431923866272 * estimated hash rate (Ghash/s)
DannyHamilton
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 February 12, 2013, 02:47:38 PM

The current difficulty doesn't change based on the current hash rate.  It only changes every 2016 blocks based on the average of the previous 2016 blocks. The target is stored in the most recent block, so you can pull it from there.  You could also use the getdifficulty call to bitcoind.

How would an invalid difficulty calculated off of an estimated hash rate be useful?

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 February 12, 2013, 04:18:38 PM

@deepceleron Thanks, that's exactly what I need.

@DannyHamilton I'm trying to figure out how many coins/day a 60 GH/s ASIC will produce once the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave of BFL+Avalon ASICs hit the network.

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 February 12, 2013, 04:21:15 PM

Wow, this blows. If I ordered an ASIC right now, by the time I actually received it, the network hash rate could possibly be up to 500 TH/s, putting difficulty at around 69.8M. So a single 60 GH/s ASIC would only make around .43 BTC/day

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DannyHamilton
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 February 12, 2013, 04:36:41 PM

@DannyHamilton I'm trying to figure out how many coins/day a 60 GH/s ASIC will produce once the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave of BFL+Avalon ASICs hit the network.
Ok, that makes sense.  So you are making educated guesses about what the hash rate will be in the future, and then trying to determine what sort of difficulty will result from that prediction.

I'd think it would be easier to make an educated guess at the future hash rate and then just divide your expected hash rate by that predicted hash rate.  The resulting ratio should be the percentage of daily mined BTC that you should receive, shouldn't it?

So if you predict a network hash rate of 500 TH/s, and your are contributing 60 GH/s:

60 / 500,000 = 0.012%

0.012% of 3600 = 0.432 BTC / day

(Is 1 TH/s equivalent to 1,000 GH/s, or is it 1024 GH/s?)

AmDD
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 February 12, 2013, 05:00:26 PM

@DannyHamilton I'm trying to figure out how many coins/day a 60 GH/s ASIC will produce once the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave of BFL+Avalon ASICs hit the network.

(Is 1 TH/s equivalent to 1,000 GH/s, or is it 1024 GH/s?)

As far as I know the 1000 vs 1024 thing only applies to memory (Bits vs Bytes) so 1000Gh/s = 1Th/s

i was in the first 25 orders with bASIC before it went belly up. Had I received my order it would have paid for itself pretty quickly, even if bASIC shipped after everyone else, just because of my place in line. I see no point in ordering from someone else now for the same reasons as posted above. I plan on continuing GPU mining until it is unprofitable and then using my ~ 3 months worth of points at CoinLab. Any money will be put toward buying coins rather than mining. Until we get more info from the ASIC companies I dont see any other way to continue...

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Mousepotato
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 February 12, 2013, 06:28:06 PM

Ok, that makes sense.  So you are making educated guesses about what the hash rate will be in the future, and then trying to determine what sort of difficulty will result from that prediction.

I'd think it would be easier to make an educated guess at the future hash rate and then just divide your expected hash rate by that predicted hash rate.  The resulting ratio should be the percentage of daily mined BTC that you should receive, shouldn't it?

So if you predict a network hash rate of 500 TH/s, and your are contributing 60 GH/s:

60 / 500,000 = 0.012%

0.012% of 3600 = 0.432 BTC / day

(Is 1 TH/s equivalent to 1,000 GH/s, or is it 1024 GH/s?)

That would be too easy though

Mousepotato
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 February 12, 2013, 07:39:50 PM

Wow, this blows. If I ordered an ASIC right now, by the time I actually received it, the network hash rate could possibly be up to 500 TH/s, putting difficulty at around 69.8M. So a single 60 GH/s ASIC would only make around .43 BTC/day
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/02/99-asic-choices-avalon-update-2-by.html

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siggy
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 February 12, 2013, 08:36:25 PM

Wow, this blows. If I ordered an ASIC right now, by the time I actually received it, the network hash rate could possibly be up to 500 TH/s, putting difficulty at around 69.8M. So a single 60 GH/s ASIC would only make around .43 BTC/day

don't forget to factor in that just cuz you finally got your ASIC, there aren't more comming online soon after... that .43 BTC/day is gonna go down fast.

go over to bitcoinx.com and user their profitibility calculator..  put in a starting diff of 69.8 M and play around with the "decline per year" field..  putting in .25 means that in the 12 months following when your start, diff will go up by 4x.

I recently ran through the same line of reasoning you did, and pretty much came to the same conclusion.. "This Blows, better off to just buy BTC"

Sigg
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 April 04, 2013, 02:19:18 AM

Wow, this blows. If I ordered an ASIC right now, by the time I actually received it, the network hash rate could possibly be up to 500 TH/s, putting difficulty at around 69.8M. So a single 60 GH/s ASIC would only make around .43 BTC/day
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/02/99-asic-choices-avalon-update-2-by.html

Only 0.43/day?  That's only \$55/day at current prices!  WTF - I pay \$1299 + shipping for something that only pays for itself in 23 days?  I can find better investments in my toilet!

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tempt
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 April 04, 2013, 05:07:47 PM

Wow, this blows. If I ordered an ASIC right now, by the time I actually received it, the network hash rate could possibly be up to 500 TH/s, putting difficulty at around 69.8M. So a single 60 GH/s ASIC would only make around .43 BTC/day
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/02/99-asic-choices-avalon-update-2-by.html

Only 0.43/day?  That's only \$55/day at current prices!  WTF - I pay \$1299 + shipping for something that only pays for itself in 23 days?  I can find better investments in my toilet!

Rember the poor guys that paid 75BTC for a Avalon Batch 3, like me

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jhansen858
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 April 11, 2013, 05:11:02 AM

I just went Balls Deep and ordered the MiniRig.  My only fear is that BFL is actually going to somehow fold and declare bankruptcy before I get my rig.  But yea in the mining game, its either go big or go home seems to me.

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DrG
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 April 11, 2013, 10:01:24 AM

I just went Balls Deep and ordered the MiniRig.  My only fear is that BFL is actually going to somehow fold and declare bankruptcy before I get my rig.  But yea in the mining game, its either go big or go home seems to me.

Thought minirig went OOS?
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