Manipulation to induce panic.

[Ichthyo]

And it only becomes tempting to sell if you think we have hit the top. Not many of us around here think that is the case.

And those jokers (read: Adam) just got shook so hard their pockets are barren.
It's cool though, don't learn your lesson. More bad advice please!

quoted for posterity.

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.


Of course this doesn't indicate what exactly is the top. It could be 27.5, it could be 33ish. It doesn't really matter (letting aside risky short term speculation gains or losses)

[1714890866]

1714890866

[1714890866]

1714890866

[humanitee]

And it only becomes tempting to sell if you think we have hit the top. Not many of us around here think that is the case.

And those jokers (read: Adam) just got shook so hard their pockets are barren.
It's cool though, don't learn your lesson. More bad advice please!

quoted for posterity.

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.


Of course this doesn't indicate what exactly is the top. It could be 27.5, it could be 33ish. It doesn't really matter (letting aside risky short term speculation gains or losses)

IDK man, I'd typically agree but Bitcoin is unlike anything the world has ever seen.
The Reddit news has me PUMPED. The bitcoin subreddit went up like 400 users yesterday.

[cbeast]

I kinda wonder what bears have to go by besides patterns they think they see in charts. Do they take into account current newsworthy developments. Do they take into account new potential markets opening up based on announcements? Would they be able to recognize patterns that fooled them in the past without observational bias?

[Piper67]

I kinda wonder what bears have to go by besides patterns they think they see in charts. Do they take into account current newsworthy developments. Do they take into account new potential markets opening up based on announcements? Would they be able to recognize patterns that fooled them in the past without observational bias?

But the cool thing is, when you look BACK at the charts, you COULD have predicted every single move. The success rate for backwards prediction is always pretty damn close to 100 percent 

So the theory goes like this:

1) We're in a bubble. We must be, since prices are going up beyond what I feel comfortable with.

2) Since we're in a bubble, it will pop, or "correct" at some point... soon... really

3) Not sure when that correction will come, could be at $27, could be at $33, could be at $124, but when it comes, it will come.

4) Once the correction has happened, I'll let you know about it, and you'll see I was right.

QED 

[Sitarow]

I kinda wonder what bears have to go by besides patterns they think they see in charts. Do they take into account current newsworthy developments. Do they take into account new potential markets opening up based on announcements? Would they be able to recognize patterns that fooled them in the past without observational bias?

But the cool thing is, when you look BACK at the charts, you COULD have predicted every single move. The success rate for backwards prediction is always pretty damn close to 100 percent 

So the theory goes like this:

1) We're in a bubble. We must be, since prices are going up beyond what I feel comfortable with.

2) Since we're in a bubble, it will pop, or "correct" at some point... soon... really

3) Not sure when that correction will come, could be at $27, could be at $33, could be at $124, but when it comes, it will come.

4) Once the correction has happened, I'll let you know about it, and you'll see I was right.

QED 

This is how the big boys play.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2#first-some-context-trading-is-a-lot-like-any-other-merchandising-business-and-liquidity-is-important-1

[cbeast]

I kinda wonder what bears have to go by besides patterns they think they see in charts. Do they take into account current newsworthy developments. Do they take into account new potential markets opening up based on announcements? Would they be able to recognize patterns that fooled them in the past without observational bias?

But the cool thing is, when you look BACK at the charts, you COULD have predicted every single move. The success rate for backwards prediction is always pretty damn close to 100 percent 

So the theory goes like this:

1) We're in a bubble. We must be, since prices are going up beyond what I feel comfortable with.

2) Since we're in a bubble, it will pop, or "correct" at some point... soon... really

3) Not sure when that correction will come, could be at $27, could be at $33, could be at $124, but when it comes, it will come.

4) Once the correction has happened, I'll let you know about it, and you'll see I was right.

QED 

This is how the big boys play.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2#first-some-context-trading-is-a-lot-like-any-other-merchandising-business-and-liquidity-is-important-1

Yep, nothing new about that except that everybody and their aunt Gracie has been doing that for decades. Eventually, the law of diminishing returns transforms that strategy into a zero-sum game.

[Luno]

Thanks guys, a speculatin thread for the wise.

Im not alone!!

[arepo]

Also, if you could draw some more arbitrary lines on one indicator to make your case, that would be great. Thanks bro.

this

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.

also, the ROC is not arbitrary and so trends therein ('my' lines) are also not.

ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100

ROC tracks price momentum. it is an indisputable fact that this has been decreasing since the knife.

further, as your bullish sentiment and confirmation bias clearly leads you to ignore any bearish analysis that appears on the forum, i should call your attention to this thread where i used multiple indicators to predict the knife, and this thread which contains the basis of the argument i presented here, complete with many more indicators. if i reposted my entire analysis every post i made, no one would have a good time.

but keep making yourself feel better by dismissing every indicator i post as "just one indicator" though, it'll make sure you're the one left holding the bag.

[johnyj]

I've been considering this typical scenario in a relatively small market:

One big player accumulated lots of coins at $5 during a long period, and then use some amount of cash to push the price upwards, slowly toward 40 (since the supply is low, it is not difficult to push the price up), and he slowly dump all the coins he accumulated during this rally process

Since the amount he dumped is huge, the price will lose steam after he left and eventually crash down. When this happens, what is going to support BTC price to stay relatively stable?

On a falling price market, every business owners that accept bitcoin will face potential future loss, they will reduce the exposure to BTC, which further accelerate the fall. So people need to have a strong motivation to keep the money flow into BTC when the price is falling

So far the only motivation I can find is scarcity (and those true believers), is there any other motivation? For example, users always get decent discount when buying with BTC, so they have the motivation to exchange for BTC no matter how price goes, and that exchange volume will help to keep the BTC demand up

I am interested if BTC is enough resilient against a deep price drop, because that day will come

[humanitee]

Also, if you could draw some more arbitrary lines on one indicator to make your case, that would be great. Thanks bro.

this

Its a typical sign for the end phase of an extended rally that bears are being ridiculed.

also, the ROC is not arbitrary and so trends therein ('my' lines) are also not.

ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100

ROC tracks price momentum. it is an indisputable fact that this has been decreasing since the knife.

further, as your bullish sentiment and confirmation bias clearly leads you to ignore any bearish analysis that appears on the forum, i should call your attention to this thread where i used multiple indicators to predict the knife, and this thread which contains the basis of the argument i presented here, complete with many more indicators. if i reposted my entire analysis every post i made, no one would have a good time.

but keep making yourself feel better by dismissing every indicator i post as "just one indicator" though, it'll make sure you're the one left holding the bag.

Fair enough, but the "knife" turned into a brilliant green candle, the likes of which we haven't seen for some time. The "correction" you called for ended up correcting the other way!
Furthermore, my algos are saying about 4/3 out/in right now, so I'm half and half.

I don't ignore the bearish sentiment, but the bears have been wrong 100% lately.
Don't ignore all the good press looking too hard at indicators. Good way to get first degree burns.

edit: Scratch that. All algos pointing towards insanity.

[arepo]

Don't ignore all the good press looking too hard at indicators. Good way to get first degree burns.

good press that gets priced in affects the charts. good press that doesn't get priced in doesn't affect the price.

the better advice would be not to get worked up about good press because we don't really know how it will affect the price, and is an unreliable trading indicator.

hint: the 'wordpress rally' started before the actual announcement.

[lebing]

Don't ignore all the good press looking too hard at indicators. Good way to get first degree burns.

good press that gets priced in affects the charts. good press that doesn't get priced in doesn't affect the price.

the better advice would be not to get worked up about good press because we don't really know how it will affect the price, and is an unreliable trading indicator.

hint: the 'wordpress rally' started before the actual announcement.

Thats just good old fashioned insider trading, happens in every market. This doesnt mean that news doesnt affect the market for long periods of time. On the contrary, it takes months, even years sometimes for the effect of one release to fully be felt. Your argument seems to stem from a belief that speculators react perfectly to any new market changing announcement within a very short period of time. I would disagree strongly with this. Also, looking at the "wordpress rally" as a singular event which has its little blip(20%?) then passes is not doing this event justice. This was a turning point for bitcoin. Instead of seeing 20% on one day, the impact from this type of an event now means that the rate of growth will increase at X% higher than previously for years to come...

[dirksizzlebod]

The bitcoin market is so gentle for me. It's like a bunny rabbit.

The swing haven't been very dramatic at all yet. Stocks, bitcoin, everything hasnt really moved that much this year yet.

That will change.

Anyone who holds precious metals probably worries more about that investment than they do about their bitcoins!

Where is a "safe" place to park your money these days?

Could be an oxymoron. Some people like exotic currencies, but that's still paper.

[xxjs]

But the cool thing is, when you look BACK at the charts, you COULD have predicted every single move. The success rate for backwards prediction is always pretty damn close to 100 percent 

Postdiction? This is how journalists work.
1. Look at the graph
2. Buy a time machine
3. Go back to a previous low and buy
4. Go forward to the top and sell
5. Profit!

Additional bonus: Find a real person who did exactly that, and let him tell the world how smart he is and how dumb everyone else is. "It was like taking money up from the street".

[TraderTimm]

Honestly this market has been nothing short of amazing - even including the swing to 2 bucks.

The volatility and appreciation has provided ample opportunities to trade, and as someone who truly enjoys trading - this has been fantastic.

The conventional equity markets (Dow Jones Index, S&P500 Futures, etc..), are rife with parasitic High-Frequency Trading algorithms and other pitfalls (including high barriers to entry with account minimums and margin requirements), so it only makes sense to stay in the market for BTC.

I wouldn't give it up for anything, really.