Fundamental analysis thread

[lebing]

Updated with:

Webmoney (Russian Paypal) is now an exchange and wallet servicing p2p and merchants
http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-access-expanded-to-over-11-million-users-of-webmoney/

[michaelGedi]

http://uptweet.com/viewStory?id=1263

http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/14/liberty-city-ventures-digital-currency-fund/

[TsuyokuNaritai]

The OP has a strongly bullish bias. Is this intentional?

[lebing]

The OP has a strongly bullish bias. Is this intentional?

As mentioned elsewhere in the thread I'm open to including all change which have the potential to fundamentally affect the price (I included the fork). If you have something you'd like to include, just post it here.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

It's not just the lack of bearish fundamentals, it's the very bullish spin on the fundamentals that are shown.

Thing is, much as I approve of balanced evidence, I'm not sure I'd want you to change it because I'm a bull and your list is awesome.

Maybe a bear could volunteer to do a bearish version, and this could be the Bull's fundamental analysis thread? It's much easier to get two opposing biased views to compare against each-other than one unbiased view.

[lebing]

It's not just the lack of bearish fundamentals, it's the very bullish spin on the fundamentals that are shown.

Thing is, much as I approve of balanced evidence, I'm not sure I'd want you to change it because I'm a bull and your list is awesome.

Maybe a bear could volunteer to do a bearish version, and this could be the Bull's fundamental analysis thread? It's much easier to get two opposing biased views to compare against each-other than one unbiased view.

To be honest I would love it if someone would put together a decent bearish fundamental list. Problem is that I've been trying for over a year now to see indicators which fundamentally point towards downwards price movement and almost without exception have failed.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

I'll ask on the wall tracker.  

[Edit: Done - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2267269#msg2267269]

[ElectricMucus]

U rang?

Here is a bunch, I stopped updating it though but most of it should still be somewhat relevant.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=144170.0

[Peter Lambert]

Bearish price indicator: (You may want to dig deeper to get actual statistical data)

As Ripple gains wider acceptance and usage, it will increase the M2 monetary base of bitcoins (that is, M1 is what is on the blockchain, M2 is M1 + all credit accounts denominated in bitcoins (Not sure if I am using the right M#s, somebody could check that?)), the rising money supply will decrease the price.

[lebing]

Bearish price indicator: (You may want to dig deeper to get actual statistical data)

As Ripple gains wider acceptance and usage, it will increase the M2 monetary base of bitcoins (that is, M1 is what is on the blockchain, M2 is M1 + all credit accounts denominated in bitcoins (Not sure if I am using the right M#s, somebody could check that?)), the rising money supply will decrease the price.

While in theory thats possible, I'm far from convinced that Ripple will be widely used.

[niko]

Bearish price indicator: (You may want to dig deeper to get actual statistical data)

As Ripple gains wider acceptance and usage, it will increase the M2 monetary base of bitcoins (that is, M1 is what is on the blockchain, M2 is M1 + all credit accounts denominated in bitcoins (Not sure if I am using the right M#s, somebody could check that?)), the rising money supply will decrease the price.

While in theory thats possible, I'm far from convinced that Ripple will be widely used.

Whatever the case may be, this thread is about what is, not what might/could/should happen. I've been trying hard, but cannot come up with bearish facts. I see no reason for Bitcoin not to continue growing. It works, and it is (and could be) useful in many ways to many people. Most of them haven't even realized that yet.

[ElectricMucus]

My top bearish contender is still BFL, they are the largest concentrated pile of incompetence and still kickin. People (and neither myself) don't pay any attention to them any more but they are continuing to piss people off.

[And1]

Why are you not placing bad news on the list? If price falls I'm looking for information why and nothing is on your list (it makes me suspicious that it's biased and not trustworthy because of that).

[solex]

OK Fundamentalists - riddle me this one:

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Two related pieces of fundamental data seemingly at variance. Any suggestions why?

[lebing]

Why are you not placing bad news on the list? If price falls I'm looking for information why and nothing is on your list (it makes me suspicious that it's biased and not trustworthy because of that).

Read the rest of the thread (jesus, just read this page) to understand why there isnt more bearish info there.

If you are looking for info on why the fall happened yesterday, you just need to know that manipulators are going to manipulate (and sometimes get burned because they failed... like yesterday).

[lebing]

OK Fundamentalists - riddle me this one:

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Two related pieces of fundamental data seemingly at variance. Any suggestions why?

One piece of data is cumulative, the other is recalculated daily. No surprise that the numbers of transactions fell after the crash of 2013. Expect them to bottom soon and flatline for a few months before heading back up.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

OK Fundamentalists - riddle me this one:

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-tx?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Two related pieces of fundamental data seemingly at variance. Any suggestions why?

Wallet number of users isn't as bullish as it looks. If the there were no new wallets at all, the line would go flat, not down. The slope pointing up isn't bullish unless the slope angle is also increasing.

[And1]

Why are you not placing bad news on the list? If price falls I'm looking for information why and nothing is on your list (it makes me suspicious that it's biased and not trustworthy because of that).

Read the rest of the thread (jesus, just read this page) to understand why there isnt more bearish info there.

If you are looking for info on why the fall happened yesterday, you just need to know that manipulators are going to manipulate (and sometimes get burned because they failed... like yesterday).

I don't get it
Why freezing mtgox bank account is less important than rumors that maybe some unknown hedge will give possibility to hold bitcoins.
Or if there is good news about Coinlab deal why it is not followed by news that it didn't work out and there will be no Coinlab but lawsuit instead. At least be consequent.

(I knew price was going to fall now, either in triangle or zigzag scenario, but it was quite fast, like some news showed up.)

[molecular]

OK Fundamentalists - riddle me this one:

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

I make about 1 blockchain.info wallet every 4 or so weeks for various temporary purposes. Maybe I should change that practice.

Does this count every wallet ever created or are there some criteria to be fulfilled?
[/quote]

[naima53]

Translate it, I'm too lazy (just lazy...)

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