Fundamental analysis thread

[TraderTimm]

Mr. Che, all pants pulled together, finally sobered up, have washed with cold water and soap, talcum fingers \ strewed palms, all rolled into a garbage background is the sound of flickering and swap out the ... In ALHALVU!! the moment came unexpectedly!!

In Hell adische, burn it with fire but stronger! Who will throw the first rock into the den? Pressing the loot from ASIC-builders and investors throughout the "third wave"?

Whatever that means...

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[solex]

Mr. Che, all pants pulled together, finally sobered up, have washed with cold water and soap, talcum fingers \ strewed palms, all rolled into a garbage background is the sound of flickering and swap out the ... In ALHALVU!! the moment came unexpectedly!!

In Hell adische, burn it with fire but stronger! Who will throw the first rock into the den? Pressing the loot from ASIC-builders and investors throughout the "third wave"?

Whatever that means...

Yes. I got the same garbage. "Lost in Translation" has never been more true than with this one...

[naima53]

 
Okay, I'll help you. The meaning is "to soberly assess the situation and expect a dramatic move bold major player - a bear. Who was the first to throw a stone into the den of the bear? Pressing the loot from ASIC-builders and investors throughout the "third wave" ? (the reallocation of funds). Remove coins from "third wave" investors. Coins have to go to speculators, big players in the market. Otherwise, the game does not have feelings. (meaning). The chain reaction of bankruptcies mining companies will benefit bears. Would also benefit the network, it will distribute power evenly hashes on the network, rigs will be sold for a penny, dumped on the market at bargain prices and are not in demand.

[michaelGedi]

Okay, I'll help you. The meaning is "to soberly assess the situation and expect a dramatic move bold major player - a bear. Who was the first to throw a stone into the den of the bear? Pressing the loot from ASIC-builders and investors throughout the "third wave" ? (the reallocation of funds). Remove coins from "third wave" investors. Coins have to go to speculators, big players in the market. Otherwise, the game does not have feelings. (meaning). The chain reaction of bankruptcies mining companies will benefit bears. Would also benefit the network, it will distribute power evenly hashes on the network, rigs will be sold for a penny, dumped on the market at bargain prices and are not in demand.

sounds pleasant... what has this got to do with fundamentals?

[naima53]

Okay, I'll help you. The meaning is "to soberly assess the situation and expect a dramatic move bold major player - a bear. Who was the first to throw a stone into the den of the bear? Pressing the loot from ASIC-builders and investors throughout the "third wave" ? (the reallocation of funds). Remove coins from "third wave" investors. Coins have to go to speculators, big players in the market. Otherwise, the game does not have feelings. (meaning). The chain reaction of bankruptcies mining companies will benefit bears. Would also benefit the network, it will distribute power evenly hashes on the network, rigs will be sold for a penny, dumped on the market at bargain prices and are not in demand.

sounds pleasant... what has this got to do with fundamentals?

It is most relevant to fundamental analysis. That's the whole point of the system: the creators is assigned fiat currency  in exchange for a promise of anonymity, independence from banks, lower commission payments, easy income from trade, from mining. This is a game with only one goal (a zero-sum game)

[johnyj]

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

[molecular]

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

[notme]

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

Price (combined with the $/hash of current top of the line mining hardware) puts a floor on difficulty.  That is the only relationship that is real.

[molecular]

For currency, supply and demand do not affect its value, it is mostly decided by the historical consensus

For bitcoin, there is a consensus of continuous appreciation due to limited supply, and that appreciation speed is largely related to the difficulty of the network

During 2012, most of the time the difficulty changed very slow, so does the exchange rate, but now when ASIC devices are being deployed, difficulty will rise at least 10-20 times, so does the exchange rate. I think current exchange rate already priced in the batch of ASIC chips that are going to hit the network during summer, unless there is a forecast of large increase of future difficulty, the exchange rate will be stable for a while

in case you're saying mining cost is the floor of bitcoin value you're making a bold claim. As bold as the claim of the goldbugs that golds inherent value stems from the energy that was used to mine it. At least logically that doesn't follow.

The relationship between exchange rate and difficulty exists, but it's more complex than what you imply it to be.

Price (combined with the $/hash of current top of the line mining hardware) puts a floor on difficulty.  That is the only relationship that is real.

Yes, that's the stronges one.

However there is a subtle one that does go the other way: A non-profitable miner might continue to mine and hold the coins, however irrational this may be. This puts (albeit slight) resistance to a falling price. I know, it's not a hard "difficulty is rising therefore price must rise" (a view I've been fighting for years now), but it's a real effect.

[johnyj]

People who want to get coin have 2 choices, either mine or buy. When the difficulty is too high, they will buy, otherwise they will mine. If they mine they will increase the difficulty until a point that mining become unprofitable then they will buy again

Miners could still mine when not profitable, because they believe that price will rise in the future, but that just increase the difficulty for all the miners and eventually someone will just buy (If price will rise in the future anyway, buying now is the most simple decision)

[Peter Lambert]

People who want to get coin have 2 choices, either mine or buy.

You forgot the other ways to get bitcoins: work for them or scam other people for them.

[halfawake]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

[notme]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

Welcome to a month ago

[halfawake]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

Welcome to a month ago

bears are getting desperate

There's not much to eat in the hibernation den, so we've got to subsist on something these days. 

[Peter Lambert]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

[halfawake]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame.  Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet.  Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

[notme]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame.  Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet.  Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

Their influence has already been dramatically lessened (just look at trade volume).  Why aren't bitcoins cheap yet?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The price would only plummet if something happened to MtGox suddenly, either a complete shutdown or some kind of very damaging restriction or abrupt moves in that direction. Since the build up of pressure on MtGox has been gradual and on the fringes, and since for the most part there remains a clean line between the services that are getting shut down (noncompliant, questionable operations) and MtGox (about as compliant as they come, except for the US Dwolla incident, which so far seems contained).

The recent gradual shift away from MtGox as the central exchange is just what the doctor ordered and paves the way for further price gains. This is also a textbook example of anti-fragility, with Bitcoin (the Bitcoin ecosystem/community) immediately starting to repair its own most exposed weak point as soon as it was identified.

[Peter Lambert]

Did I hear a request for bearish news?  Here you go: http://forexmagnates.com/coinlab-files-75-million-lawsuit-against-mtgox/

That seems like bullish news to me: any publicity is good publicity, and it is one step in getting rid of MtGox as the top exchange.

It all depends on your time frame.  Short term, getting rid of MtGox (or lessening their influence) would probably make the price of bitcoin plummet.  Long term, if a better exchange rises to the top, it could become much more stable and better / more liquid.

Their influence has already been dramatically lessened (just look at trade volume).  Why aren't bitcoins cheap yet?

Bitcoins are cheap! Snatch them now before the rest of the world realizes they want them and the price dectuples a couple more times

(My 7 year old daughter was asking the other day "so you have double for two, and triple for three, so what do you say if you have four times?" So I have been looking for places to use words like quadruple and quintuple and dectuple )

[arklan]

we've seen quite a few dectuples already

Many in the last wave of bitcoiners allowed jealousy to blind them and do not see the fact that they are effectively in the same position as the early adopters were in.

i still think that anyone getting in now IS an early adopter...