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Author Topic: Lyth0s Trading Page - The Lyth0s Indicator (Back tested)  (Read 2057 times)
lyth0s
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April 17, 2016, 01:40:56 AM
Last edit: April 27, 2016, 03:55:22 AM by lyth0s
 #1

I won't discuss the specifics of my chart analytics, but I will be messing with some bitcoin charting magic for a little while even though I don't truly believe in technical trading. The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.

Initial Fake investment capital: $1000
Current value: $1088.57
Total BTC: 2.331

My current outlook analysis as of 4/26/16: Strong Buy (upgraded from buy recommendation on 4/19/16)

This strong buy recommendation holds true unless we break below $405 at which point I would sell.



Summary: (updated 4/26/16)

My strong buy recommendation stands. Today is another very mild consolidation at $466, this is very bullish. Needless to say that we are way above the short term trading channel which would have an upper limit of $436. We have an increasing rate of rise from the mean that started on 4/18/16, another very bullish sign.

The higher we go in a shorter time frame would require a lower low in order to spark a sell signal. If we dip below $405 I would sell to 100% cash position.

The rise to $467 took a bit longer than I expected, I would have expected a price of $470 today and $472+ tomorrow. It is still a very dangerous time to be in a large cash position. I see continued upward momentum from here and eventually we will have a very rapid unpredictable price raise....

TLDR: Stay 100% bitcoin. I would sell to 100% cash below $405.



Historical Trades

4/16/16: Bought 2.331 BTC at $429 each



Note: This is my own fake trading game, do not take this as any type of trading/financial advice.

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April 17, 2016, 02:47:26 AM
 #2

Watching and would like to know which exchange you will be using that had a price of $429 an hour ago

No specifics required, but perhaps a mention of the type/strategy/system of TA would be in order?

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April 17, 2016, 02:51:06 AM
 #3

Ah...A trading simulation analysis.. Count me in, it would be interesting to watch, I hope you update this often Lyth0s. I have been skeptical about using such methods to gauge bitcoin pricing and trading for a while.

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April 18, 2016, 05:01:40 AM
 #4

Yeah I'm using Bitstamp as my defacto pricing. This will only change in an extreme circumstance eg exchange failure/downtime or large difference from all other exchanges.

The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.

With that being said my indicator has only had about 25 buy/sell signals since 2011 and right now is a BUY, downgraded from a strong buy. Would not sell unless we hit $412

Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.

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April 18, 2016, 11:28:29 AM
 #5

Yeah I'm using Bitstamp as my defacto pricing. This will only change in an extreme circumstance eg exchange failure/downtime or large difference from all other exchanges.

The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.

With that being said my indicator has only had about 25 buy/sell signals since 2011 and right now is a BUY, downgraded from a strong buy. Would not sell unless we hit $412

Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.

Good work! Can't wait to see it perform

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April 18, 2016, 12:14:42 PM
 #6

Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.

So, roughly $1290 by 5/18/2016? This really is good news Smiley
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April 18, 2016, 01:47:11 PM
 #7

Yeah I'm using Bitstamp as my defacto pricing. This will only change in an extreme circumstance eg exchange failure/downtime or large difference from all other exchanges.

The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.

With that being said my indicator has only had about 25 buy/sell signals since 2011 and right now is a BUY, downgraded from a strong buy. Would not sell unless we hit $412

Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.

I tried to fit a scenario to your prediction, and this seems the most plausible, that we are now in a similar position, would you agree?
But... back then the Chinese exchanges had just reinstated bank deposits, and the Chinese MMM clones were spawning massive buys.
I don't see yet similar speculative fundamentals manifest themselves, to allow such a large rally, maybe they will become visible soon?
And IMO it would take about 60 days not 30, the moves (if the scenario is true) take about twice as long.


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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April 18, 2016, 02:07:30 PM
 #8

I won't discuss the specifics of my chart analytics, but I will be messing with some bitcoin charting magic for a little while even though I don't truly believe in technical trading.

Initial Fake investment capital: $1000
Current value: $999.08
Total BTC: 2.331

My current outlook analysis as of 4/17/16: Buy (downgraded from strong buy recommendation on 4/16/16)

This strong buy recommendation holds true unless we break below $412 at which point I would sell.


Historical Trades

4/16/16: Bought 2.331 BTC at $429 each







Note: This is my own fake trading game, do not take this as any type of trading/financial advice.

Would be interested to know what parameters you are basing your fake trades on?

This is what I am looking at right now:


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April 18, 2016, 02:13:57 PM
 #9

chart

I'm basing my technical analysis off of bitstamp which looks a bit different although the overall chart looks similar. I wouldn't really compare it directly to the chinese exchanges as I would have problems with the fake volume. Even their fake volume is not constant over there.

MatTheCat my technical indicators are painting quite a different picture and a using a completely different analysis than what your using.



Right now it looks like we could retest $421 before making our next move upwards, but we should not go below $420. I would still sell at $412.

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April 19, 2016, 08:53:33 PM
 #10

Re-upgraded my position to Strong Buy from my previous "Buy" outlook. This would be a dangerous time to be in a cash position rather than having a large bitcoin position.

I would downgrade my outlook to "Buy" if we hit $422.

Overall momentum is up, currently at the top of a short-term trading channel.

The Lyth0s Long Term Indicator would keep me 100% in Bitcoin currently. I would sell to 100% cash at $413.

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April 19, 2016, 09:12:04 PM
 #11

I love this thread, keep going please and always update us.

Wish you all the best Smiley

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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April 19, 2016, 10:28:32 PM
 #12

following



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April 20, 2016, 04:49:09 PM
 #13

I'm maintaing my strong buy recommendation. More details to come in little bit. If this thread is useful to you please help me keep it on first page instead of being burried by bear threads.

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April 20, 2016, 05:18:12 PM
 #14

May this lyth0s thread become myth0s!
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April 20, 2016, 05:39:35 PM
 #15

Following!

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lyth0s
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April 20, 2016, 05:50:17 PM
 #16

Okay now the price is $442 a good jump up from the $429 when I initially recommended a strong buy and stated that it would be dangerous to be in a 100% cash position right now.

$442 puts us at a break out above the short term trading channel which had an upper limit of $432. With that being said I would not be surprised if we went down to $423 before our next leg up.

I would sell to a 100% cash position at $411.

Overall likely scenario is still at least a doubling of the price within the next 30 days. I would not play the volatility at this point due to the breakout potentially signalling a possible rapid price increase that you could miss the 200%+ gain on. Overall trend is still up. Like I said earlier if we break below $411 I'd sell to 100% cash.

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April 20, 2016, 06:31:45 PM
 #17

Out of curiosity (and w/o asking you to disclose your strategy or signals in detail), are you going to declare and use profit targets, or are you planning to play this as a purely signal-based entry/exit method?

Also: looking forward to following this thread.

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lyth0s
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April 20, 2016, 11:48:00 PM
 #18

Out of curiosity (and w/o asking you to disclose your strategy or signals in detail), are you going to declare and use profit targets, or are you planning to play this as a purely signal-based entry/exit method?

Also: looking forward to following this thread.

It will be purely signal based entry and exit points. There were only a few instances in the past with entry/exit that would have resulted in a small loss so I see no need for profit taking instead of leveraging the gains.

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April 21, 2016, 04:05:41 AM
 #19

Yeah I'm using Bitstamp as my defacto pricing. This will only change in an extreme circumstance eg exchange failure/downtime or large difference from all other exchanges.

The TA system I'm going to use is one I self coded on trading view which during a back test had an extra 258% growth over a buy and hold strategy from the time of bitstamps inception. We will see if it holds true in the future.

With that being said my indicator has only had about 25 buy/sell signals since 2011 and right now is a BUY, downgraded from a strong buy. Would not sell unless we hit $412

Right now this specific BUY signal would suggest a growth of 200%+ over the next 30 days.

I tried to fit a scenario to your prediction, and this seems the most plausible, that we are now in a similar position, would you agree?
But... back then the Chinese exchanges had just reinstated bank deposits, and the Chinese MMM clones were spawning massive buys.
I don't see yet similar speculative fundamentals manifest themselves, to allow such a large rally, maybe they will become visible soon?
And IMO it would take about 60 days not 30, the moves (if the scenario is true) take about twice as long.



Volume is 2-3X higher now than at the marked point.  If the marked volume is "massive buys", what do you call current volume?

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April 22, 2016, 02:24:53 AM
 #20

Following

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