Bear post of the Day

[adamstgBit]

.. and as they start to understand it scares them! they don't want to hear about why the dollars we all use are really just FAKE money, it scares them.

As it should. This is hell of a scary thing going on with bitcoin. It does take guts to take in all the information, take bitcoin to the logical conclusions and accept that there's a lot to be afraid of. Two other options is to deny its viability or to be blind to the dark side and be a blue-eyed ideologic as most here.

I might not think it's all roses, but there's no point denying the potential of BTC and would be stupid not to hop along for the ride.

yes i keep trying to tell them, "your stupid! just give me your money!"  but they don't listen... 

[adamstgBit]

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio doesn't gets under 20$ ever...

[ArticMine]

Todays bear post is about the so called uniqueness of Bitcoin.

There is not much to write about it, for all practical purposes Bitcoin is innovative but certainly not unique.
Take a look around at the Digital Currency Wiki and tell me why you think Bitcoin is destined for greatness and all those other solutions are not.

When doing that keep in mind that the rest of the world doesn't necessarily agree with libertarian ideology.

It's exactly because you are living in the first world, that you may not understand why the rest of the world needs it, and its uniqueness.

Ohh that's gonna be interesting. Please tell me how the 3rd world population is supposed to benefit from BTC in any way because I cannot think of any.

I'm serious.

and don't forget the mountain of gox!

true dat.

http://en.blog.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/pay-another-way-bitcoin/

The Wordpress guy pretty much got it actually, the status quo is if folks in my nation, and many other third world nations wanna pay for, let's say a wordpress or megaupload subscription, or just simply buying goods in a U.S online store, soon they will find many of the times their only option is to ask people like me(oversea students/workers) to help them out, all current payment methods would not work for one reason or another. Credit cards issued in many nations are not accepted, you can't blame the merchants for this, the issuing banks most likely would not give a shit once you are frauded, let alone pay for your losses, and even if you could locate the fraudster, the chance of a successful prosecution is superslim.  Paypal does not do business with perhaps more than half of the world's population, and is not allowed to process foreign currency transactions in China, even in those nations it operates, there are very often draconian restrictions, see here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal#Local_restrictions , the chance that other online payment business/digital currency issuers could operate where Paypal could not is, of course, even slimmer. And don't get me started on the wire transfer, even if the merchant accepts it and you are fine with the exorbitant fees, your fund could be intercepted anytime by an intermediary bank if the amount is slightly large, on the pretext of financial crime prevention of course, and you are left to find out yourself why your fund has not arrived, no one is going to inform you, i had personal experience with that.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, could prove to be very useful, I don't know about other nations, but in China, it's a piece of cake to buy bitcoins with existing domestic online payment system like Alipay, even if the government decides to crack down on the exchanges, the online shops could still sell them under all kinds of pretenses, it is nearly impossible the authority would find out what is the good really being delivered. On the oversea merchants side, all they have to do is to use a payment processor, which adds very little cost. Of course, whether bitcoin could really succeed will have to depend on the size and liquidity of the market, in the end.

Bitcoin, it seems to me, is basically a digital version of hawala http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala, except that hawala is nowhere near as versatile as bitcoin is. The decentralization aspect is not just libertarian ideology, it's very tangible in nations where financial barriers are real.

This very much nails it except for the fact that there is a very significant proportion of the population in many first world nations such as the United States and Canada who cannot use Paypal, and do not have Credit Cards or even bank accounts. This is mainly because of two reasons:
1) Too young teens and tweens
2) Too poor, no credit or bad credit.

It is not just the third world. This problem and its Bitcoin solution applies to many in the first world also.

[piramida]

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio doesn't gets under 20$ ever...

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets to 20$ sharp and stays there. Other than that, no idea.

[ElectricMucus]

I've struggled a little on whenever to bring that up here or create another thread about it, (which I might do some day nevertheless some day if the situation doesn't improve).

The issue of concern is what I call Bitcoinism. Many people in this community preach it and it is toxic.
It is basically greed, coupled with ignorance, group think and the inability to comprehend issues raised by people outside this little cult.

This has to do with the belief that Bitcoin is supposed to take over the world through recursive "early adoption". People are almost exclusively concerned with increasing publicity or "astroturfing" if you will.
The situation is supposed to improve by attracting more people which are expected to take care of the problems. While the only people this strategy attracts are the ones prone to the same thought process.

It is the main reason people make fun of us (read SA) and it doesn't look like it is gonna go away any time soon.
One good example was the Bitcoin stand at CES, while this could have been a great opportunity the main story was about BFL vs. Micon which none of the people outside understood.
Another one is this forum, you might not even want to look too far even in this thread there are plenty of examples of it. Oakpacific is probably the biggest offender ITT along with the people who followed after his lead.

[adamstgBit]

[oakpacific]

You started this thread by saying you want to rebuff some unwarranted claims in this community, now instead of offering rebuttals to other people's stated reasons for belief in bitcoin's usefulness, you have decided to settle with surmising other people's ulterior motives, and called it all about greed and ignorance, very good for you. I guess there is nothing more I need to add.

[ElectricMucus]

You started this thread by saying you want to rebuff some unwarranted claims in this community, now instead of offering rebuttals to other people's stated reasons for belief in bitcoin's usefulness, you have decided to settle with surmising other people's ulterior motives, and called it all about greed and ignorance, very good for you. I guess there is nothing more I need to add.

Don't worry this is nothing against you, it could have been (almost) anybody else here.
In detail you praised BTC as a tool to help people in the third world, and after I argued against it you brushed away my arguments and continued on with your rhetoric.

The reason I call it ignorance is the way Bitcoin is alleviated to some silver bulled using "magical thinking", it is supposed to solve problems it was never meant to be addressing and which it cannot addresses on a fundamental level.

[oakpacific]

You started this thread by saying you want to rebuff some unwarranted claims in this community, now instead of offering rebuttals to other people's stated reasons for belief in bitcoin's usefulness, you have decided to settle with surmising other people's ulterior motives, and called it all about greed and ignorance, very good for you. I guess there is nothing more I need to add.

Don't worry this is nothing against you, it could have been (almost) anybody else here.
In detail you praised BTC as a tool to help people in the third world, and after I argued against it you brushed away my arguments and continued on with your rhetoric.

The reason I call it ignorance is the way Bitcoin is alleviated to some silver bulled using "magical thinking", it is supposed to solve problems it was never meant to be addressing and which it cannot addresses on a fundamental level.

I offered my explanation why your concern is not a concern, it's not rhetoric, there's a market there, and no appropriate payment method exists to satisfy the need of this market, it's a fact, just a fact many people are not aware of.

I have said there are big bitcoin exchanges traded in CNY, and people could pay for their bitcoins with domestic payment system easily, either purchasing through the exchange or the online merchants. I could talk a little bit more about the supply side, for one thing in a populous developing nation there would be many citizens working overseas, and they would often have business/personal issues to deal with in their home country, which would require them to keep a cash reserve of local currency, selling bitcoins is one way to obtain such currency without going through the hurdle of forex exchange(there is actually one filippino guy offering such remittance service on this forum), For another, again in a populous developing nation, there would be a significant number of miners, who would be more than happy to sell their coins they mined locally, even at a slightly reduced rate, to avoid the trouble of withdrawing from Gox.

[netrin]

Hi ElectricMucus, long time no chat.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

According to my tea leaves, there is a good chance the price will peak soon around $40 and drop to the August price range, perhaps in the teens. After climbing above $20 again, I think you are right, it will never drop below $20 again. Or so says the good oolong.

Bear disclosure: as of $27:90 o'clock today I own no bitcoins.

[adamstgBit]

Hi ElectricMucus, long time no chat.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

According to my tea leaves, there is a good chance the price will peak soon around $40 and drop to the August price range, perhaps in the teens. After climbing above $20 again, I think you are right, it will never drop below $20 again. Or so says the good oolong.

translation: i think bitcoin is over priced right now and should be in the teens... But it will go up Up UP b4 the market crashes down down down!

I say no.
everyone can see what you see... bitcoin is over priced because the market went a bit nutty... No it will not go any higher... the market might go crazy from time to time, but MOST of the time it does want it does best, and that is to find the true value.

[humanitee]

Hi ElectricMucus, long time no chat.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

According to my tea leaves, there is a good chance the price will peak soon around $40 and drop to the August price range, perhaps in the teens. After climbing above $20 again, I think you are right, it will never drop below $20 again. Or so says the good oolong.

translation: i think bitcoin is over priced right now and should be in the teens... But it will go up Up UP b4 the market crashes down down down!

I say no.
everyone can see what you see... bitcoin is over priced because the market went a bit nutty... No it will not go any higher... the market might go crazy from time to time, but MOST of the time it does want it does best, and that is to find the true value.

 

[adamstgBit]

Hi ElectricMucus, long time no chat.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

According to my tea leaves, there is a good chance the price will peak soon around $40 and drop to the August price range, perhaps in the teens. After climbing above $20 again, I think you are right, it will never drop below $20 again. Or so says the good oolong.

translation: i think bitcoin is over priced right now and should be in the teens... But it will go up Up UP b4 the market crashes down down down!

I say no.
everyone can see what you see... bitcoin is over priced because the market went a bit nutty... No it will not go any higher... the market might go crazy from time to time, but MOST of the time it does want it does best, and that is to find the true value.

 

   ok NOW it will not go any higher 

[johnyj]

I usually only talk about positive things, but since this is a post of Bear, let's bring out some bearish facts

There is a possible hard fork in the near future, where user might be forced to switch blockchain. If you use original software, you will stay with original protocol, and if you use a new software published by btc foundation, you will use the new protocol. Both protocol do not accept the block on another chain, so coin generated on one chain become invalid in another chain (not sure if old coins will  be affected)

I don't really understand the necessity of such a hard fork, but anyway core developers said there are this this and this reason that we should/should not raise the transaction size limit, the debate has been going on for one year

The debate splited into two different political view regarding how BTC will perform in the future, I think this revealed a potential weakness in BTC: Currently there is no good decision making process established in btc community, if some developer with big influence decided to make a change in protocol, while some others do not agree, they might go ahead and make this fork, and we will get a split after the hard fork, so that some group of user stay with the original, and some other group goes with the new protocol, if that split is 50-50, that will almost immediately cut the BTC price by half. It is not about the technology itself, it is about people's trust of blockchain

I had a poll for this, have a mixed result without any majority:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140516.0

[notme]

I usually only talk about positive things, but since this is a post of Bear, let's bring out some bearish facts

There is a possible hard fork in the near future, where user might be forced to switch blockchain. If you use original software, you will stay with original protocol, and if you use a new software published by btc foundation, you will use the new protocol. Both protocol do not accept the block on another chain, so coin generated on one chain become invalid in another chain (not sure if old coins will  be affected)

I don't really understand the necessity of such a hard fork, but anyway core developers said there are this this and this reason that we should/should not raise the transaction size limit, the debate has been going on for one year

The debate splited into two different political view regarding how BTC will perform in the future, I think this revealed a potential weakness in BTC: Currently there is no good decision making process established in btc community, if some developer with big influence decided to make a change in protocol, while some others do not agree, they might go ahead and make this fork, and we will get a split after the hard fork, so that some group of user stay with the original, and some other group goes with the new protocol, if that split is 50-50, that will almost immediately cut the BTC price by half

I had a poll for this, have a mixed result without any majority:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140516.0

Everybody can use their prefork coins on each chain.

[johnyj]

Everybody can use their prefork coins on each chain.

You could double spend them on each chain, just like BTC supply increased by 100%, so value will cut by half immediately

Even worse, central banks inflate money slowly, 10% per year is called hyperinflation. But in this case bitcoin is inflated by 100% overnight, then all the people's trust to this limited supply property (which is most important IMO) will vanish, it might worth nothing the day after

[notme]

I usually only talk about positive things, but since this is a post of Bear, let's bring out some bearish facts

There is a possible hard fork in the near future, where user might be forced to switch blockchain. If you use original software, you will stay with original protocol, and if you use a new software published by btc foundation, you will use the new protocol. Both protocol do not accept the block on another chain, so coin generated on one chain become invalid in another chain (not sure if old coins will  be affected)

I don't really understand the necessity of such a hard fork, but anyway core developers said there are this this and this reason that we should/should not raise the transaction size limit, the debate has been going on for one year

The debate splited into two different political view regarding how BTC will perform in the future, I think this revealed a potential weakness in BTC: Currently there is no good decision making process established in btc community, if some developer with big influence decided to make a change in protocol, while some others do not agree, they might go ahead and make this fork, and we will get a split after the hard fork, so that some group of user stay with the original, and some other group goes with the new protocol, if that split is 50-50, that will almost immediately cut the BTC price by half

I had a poll for this, have a mixed result without any majority:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140516.0

Everybody can use their prefork coins on each chain.

You could double spend them on each chain, just like BTC supply increased by 100%, so value cut by half immediately

Even worse, central banks inflate money slowly, 10% per year is called hyperinflation, in this case it is inflated by 100% overnight, then all the people's trust to this limited supply property (which is most important IMO) will vanish

You're assuming that bitcoin and bitcoin-classic will be valued equally.

[johnyj]

You're assuming that bitcoin and bitcoin-classic will be valued equally.

That's in case of 50-50 split, but other split is the same, it is not about the valuation, it is about people now do not believe that this thing can not be inflated, and double spend is also possible through a hard fork, promises are broken

[piramida]

most people use blockchain, most people would not notice there's been a fork.

[netrin]

@johnyj as I cross posted, is a fork serious chatter or purely hypothetical?