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Question: When will we get a network hashrate of 1 petahash/s?
By end of March - 5 (4.6%)
By end of June - 4 (3.7%)
By end of Septempter - 37 (33.9%)
By end of the year - 28 (25.7%)
Sometime in 2014 - 25 (22.9%)
2015 or later - 5 (4.6%)
Never - 5 (4.6%)
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Author Topic: When will we get a network hashrate of 1 petahash/s?  (Read 5624 times)
coblee (OP)
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February 15, 2013, 02:36:29 AM
 #1

Seems like ASIC miners are about 50x more efficient than FPGA miners in both $/hashrate and $/watt.
50 * the current network hashrate of 24 terahashs/s is 1.2 petahashs/s. So when will we get there?

Note: a petahash is 1000 terahash

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February 15, 2013, 03:30:17 AM
 #2

After 200, 300 or 400TH the possibility of breaking even on ASICs becomes a longshot projection (a 4 year ROI may never materialize).  So either ASIC technology will need to advance significantly (ie 2 or 3 fold more power per same cost) or the price of Bitcoin would have to go up to make it feasible.  If BTC valuation is going to go up, it would be just easier to buy coins and sit on em.

I can't see Petahash happening this year
coblee (OP)
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February 15, 2013, 07:11:41 AM
 #3

After 200, 300 or 400TH the possibility of breaking even on ASICs becomes a longshot projection (a 4 year ROI may never materialize).  So either ASIC technology will need to advance significantly (ie 2 or 3 fold more power per same cost) or the price of Bitcoin would have to go up to make it feasible.  If BTC valuation is going to go up, it would be just easier to buy coins and sit on em.

I can't see Petahash happening this year

I'm not sure how you are doing your calculations. From my calculations, ROI is much better.
Using http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

Let's take the SC Mini Rig as an example, and assume their specs are correct.
$30,000, 1.5 thash/s, 1500 Watts

With the current difficulty of 3275464 and network hashrate of 23.4 thash/s, 1.5 thash/s produces 230 btc/day and uses 36 kWh/day, which costs $10.80 (if electricity costs 30 cents). At current exchange rate of $27/btc, you'd make $6200/day. ROI = 5 days!

If difficulty is 10 times of today (i.e. 234 thahs/s network hashrate), you'd still make 23 btc/day, which is $610/day after subtracting electricity. ROI = 1.6 months!

If difficulty is 50 times of today (i.e. 1.17 phash/s network hashrate), you'd make 4.6 btc/day, which is $114/day after subtracting electricity. ROI = 8.7 months

This calculation assumes that btc/$ doesn't change and difficulty doesn't change, but you get the picture. No where near as bad as you claimed.

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February 15, 2013, 10:44:08 AM
 #4

After 200, 300 or 400TH the possibility of breaking even on ASICs becomes a longshot projection (a 4 year ROI may never materialize).  So either ASIC technology will need to advance significantly (ie 2 or 3 fold more power per same cost) or the price of Bitcoin would have to go up to make it feasible.  If BTC valuation is going to go up, it would be just easier to buy coins and sit on em.

I can't see Petahash happening this year

I'm not sure how you are doing your calculations. From my calculations, ROI is much better.
Using http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

Let's take the SC Mini Rig as an example, and assume their specs are correct.
$30,000, 1.5 thash/s, 1500 Watts

With the current difficulty of 3275464 and network hashrate of 23.4 thash/s, 1.5 thash/s produces 230 btc/day and uses 36 kWh/day, which costs $10.80 (if electricity costs 30 cents). At current exchange rate of $27/btc, you'd make $6200/day. ROI = 5 days!

If difficulty is 10 times of today (i.e. 234 thahs/s network hashrate), you'd still make 23 btc/day, which is $610/day after subtracting electricity. ROI = 1.6 months!

If difficulty is 50 times of today (i.e. 1.17 phash/s network hashrate), you'd make 4.6 btc/day, which is $114/day after subtracting electricity. ROI = 8.7 months

This calculation assumes that btc/$ doesn't change and difficulty doesn't change, but you get the picture. No where near as bad as you claimed.

What I meant was that those people receiving ASICs after BFL delivers batch 1 and Avalon has Batch 2 out (this is just 1 month away) will have a long time to wait.  Anybody who orders today will have to calculate ROI with the 500TH difficulty because it's not like you can go back in a time machine and preorder.  Those who got in line early know they'll make there money back.  Garzik has already paid his off after 10 days and is now in pure profit on the "inefficient" Avalon ASIC.  

You cherrypicked the best possible outcome (BFL's best equipment and the company with the most efficient ASIC).  The SC Single get a little less Hash/$ and Hash/W - the jalapeno even moreso.  I throw the minirig out since anybody buying $30k mining equipment is a whale for all intent and purposes- it's not the casual miner.  At 500TH the Avalon's electricity usage becomes a significant factor into profit margins.  If somebody tries to order an Avalon in Batch 3 with 66GH/s and the difficulty is around 500TH because BFL has shipped Batch 2 - you think that buyer will see ROI in under a year?  2 years?  4 years?

Yes the early adopters are all essentially becoming mini Art-Forzes and getting their piece of the BTC pie.  They'll have their eq paid off in no time. I think any orders popping out after 500TH might be kinda screwed.  The big uncertainty is how many real orders and chips does BFL have lined up since they are the 800 lb gorilla.  If they only have 300TH then it might be reasonable to buy.  If they have 600TH lined up, I'de rather throw $ at BTC and maybe pick up a "quitter" ASIC 6 months from now.

My electricity at home with SCE is over $36c (generation and delivery) BTW, and if I'm using an Avalon 24/7 it would go over $48c/KWh.  Yet I still tried to get batch 1 and 2 of Avalon knowing initally power costs are negligible.

And Europeans think they got it bad - nobody bends you over like Jerry Brown and the fucked up socialist state of Kalifornia.
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February 15, 2013, 11:08:58 AM
 #5

I just did a calculation for your Avalon. If network is 500 thash and your electricity is $.48, you're ROI is 8.7 months. Not as bad as you'd think, but still not very good. But we are using very high electricity costs.

So my point is at 500 thash, you may not want to buy an Avalon, but there will be plenty of people with lower electricity costs that would keep buying BFL machines and still see ROI of a few months. And those machines will likely go down in price before the year is over.

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February 15, 2013, 11:15:54 AM
 #6

ROI estimations are way too random!
in a 500TH network i expect BTC to be 100-200$.
Thus it should be easier to buy BTC now than purchase ASICs Wink
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February 25, 2013, 11:29:35 PM
Last edit: February 26, 2013, 05:24:38 PM by Korbman
 #7

Seems like ASIC miners are about 50x more efficient than FPGA miners in both $/hashrate and $/watt.
50 * the current network hashrate of 24 terahashs/s is 1.2 petahashs/s. So when will we get there?

GPU mining is 200+ times faster than CPU mining.
During mass CPU mining the difficulty was, what, 50k-100k? Therefore the current network difficulty must be around 10-20 million since we switched to GPUs/FPGAs, right?

Analogy aside, just because we (as a mining collective) are switching to a faster, more efficient mining device does not mean we will see an equal jump in network difficulty. I'm not saying we won't ever see 1PH/s, but it surely won't be within the next 12 months. Even if you take all current (known) preorders from BFL and Avalon, double it all, and then add in 100TH/s for ASICMiner, you'll still only come in around 350TH/s.

There are a number of factors here, but the largest is the barrier to entry for the "Average Joe". For an average person, using some opensource software to utilize their CPU/GPU for mining was easy. With the switch to ASIC, we're now pushing people to purchase specific devices (that they otherwise might not have bought) if they want to keep mining while maintaining profitability [obviously you can still mine with a CPU/GPU, but 300MH/s on a 350TH/s network isn't going to do much].
So something has to give..either ASIC devices become cheap as dirty, or the BTC/USD is so high that no one can resist the allure of "making a quick buck".

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February 27, 2013, 10:55:08 PM
 #8

Seems like ASIC miners are about 50x more efficient than FPGA miners in both $/hashrate and $/watt.
50 * the current network hashrate of 24 terahashs/s is 1.2 petahashs/s. So when will we get there?

GPU mining is 200+ times faster than CPU mining.
During mass CPU mining the difficulty was, what, 50k-100k? Therefore the current network difficulty must be around 10-20 million since we switched to GPUs/FPGAs, right?

Analogy aside, just because we (as a mining collective) are switching to a faster, more efficient mining device does not mean we will see an equal jump in network difficulty. I'm not saying we won't ever see 1PH/s, but it surely won't be within the next 12 months. Even if you take all current (known) preorders from BFL and Avalon, double it all, and then add in 100TH/s for ASICMiner, you'll still only come in around 350TH/s.

There are a number of factors here, but the largest is the barrier to entry for the "Average Joe". For an average person, using some opensource software to utilize their CPU/GPU for mining was easy. With the switch to ASIC, we're now pushing people to purchase specific devices (that they otherwise might not have bought) if they want to keep mining while maintaining profitability [obviously you can still mine with a CPU/GPU, but 300MH/s on a 350TH/s network isn't going to do much].
So something has to give..either ASIC devices become cheap as dirty, or the BTC/USD is so high that no one can resist the allure of "making a quick buck".

Not sure where you get your numbers from. Taking a quick look at historic charts, difficulty was 1 until about January '10 (1st year), it climbed to about 20 by July '10, which I believe is when GPU mining was introduced (someone correct me if I'm wrong), when it promptly skyrocketed. Reached 50,000 only in about Feb '11, when GPU mining had been around for ~6months, and was beginning to become more widely popularized on the internet.

So all in all, ~3mil / 20 = 150,000x increase. But I agree, the analogy between CPU and GPU fails, for different reasons. CPU -> GPU mining coincided also with an increase in bitcoin popularity unrelated to the technology (people had CPUs and GPUs, either would have worked for technophiles). Although there was an increase in efficiency (Hash/W) there was also a raw power factor that was introduced with GPUs as well, the opposite of which is happening with ASICs. Proven, readily available tech vs. bleeding edge DIY (kinda) startup tech, etc.

However you look at it though, in my opinion, the time to 1PH will be determined by 2 factors
1) How fast ASIC mfgs can actually get the damn things out the door.
2) Price per coin.

There was a huge huge huge goldrush to bitcoin when it was being first discovered, at low diff low value, without exchanges, or bitcoin economy. To think that people will sat back on their haunches with money to be made now is only wishful thinking to me.
The bitcoin economy is roughly estimated at 300M USD today, 1PH requires an investment of approx 21M USD. If manufacturers could supply it, and no one else did it, I would myself Wink
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February 28, 2013, 02:22:48 PM
 #9

4 to 6 weeks.

A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing?
A: Top-posting.
Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail?
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March 05, 2013, 07:06:58 AM
 #10

I'm not sure how you are doing your calculations. From my calculations, ROI is much better.

If difficulty is 50 times of today (i.e. 1.17 phash/s network hashrate), you'd make 4.6 btc/day, which is $114/day after subtracting electricity. ROI = 8.7 months

This calculation assumes that btc/$ doesn't change and difficulty doesn't change, but you get the picture. No where near as bad as you claimed.

Thats 9 months from receiving the unit just to break even. Most people wont receive them until Mid-Late Summer, so you are talking about late 2014 just to break even, and by then the difficulty will be SKY high, so the profit margins will be low. I think there are a lot better things you could do with $30k in 2 years time that would make a lot more money - like starting a business, playing the stock market, or just buying bitcoins.
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September 16, 2013, 04:11:49 AM
 #11

Worth noting
http://thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-network-reaches-1-petahash-per-second/

Date of 1 PH Sept 15 2013
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September 23, 2013, 08:05:30 PM
 #12

How do you like them apples now, eh?
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September 24, 2013, 07:26:23 AM
 #13

ROI estimations are way too random!
in a 500TH network i expect BTC to be 100-200$.
Thus it should be easier to buy BTC now than purchase ASICs Wink


good call !
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