Can Bernie win New York?

[outatime1]

The primaries for New York are coming up.  What are the chances that Bernie will win over Hillary?

[Evildrum]

Think Clinton wins this one. But I am a outsider looking in. Was also interested what people thought his chances where, much rather see him than Hilary.

[Moloch]

New York has a lot of rules that favor the establishment...

Closed primaries... no independents can vote (80% of indy's vote Bernie)

You had to register 6 months ago... basically, before Bernie announced he was running... If you were previously independent or republican or unregistered, and want to vote for Bernie... you can't

Also, in districts that favor Hillary, voting is open from 6am-9pm... in districts that favor Bernie, voting is open from 12pm-9pm... 6 fewer hours to vote... wtf? (super sux0r if you work the "swing-shift")

That being said, I still think he beats the polling average by 5-10% (unfortunately polls still how him behind by 12%)... Hillary will likely win by less than 5%

[bryant.coleman]

Hitlery is going to win this one by a good margin, perhaps by around 20% of the vote. My prediction is 60% for Hitlery and 40% for Bernie. NY is Hitlery's home state and the large African American and Hispanic communities are solidly behind her. Bernie might be able to secure a majority of the votes from the Italians and the Irish, but that is simply not enough.

[Moloch]

Hitlery is going to win this one by a good margin, perhaps by around 20% of the vote. My prediction is 60% for Hitlery and 40% for Bernie. NY is Hitlery's home state and the large African American and Hispanic communities are solidly behind her. Bernie might be able to secure a majority of the votes from the Italians and the Irish, but that is simply not enough.

One of the candidates was born and raised in New York (Brooklyn)... it was Bernie Sanders... just saying

The only reason Clinton moved to New York in September 1999, was because an easy senate seat was up for grabs (she got the seat in 2000 election)

[bryant.coleman]

One of the candidates was born and raised in New York (Brooklyn)... it was Bernie Sanders... just saying

Sanders moved out of NY more than 50 years ago, and he has ZERO ties with the Democrat establishment there.

Sanders performs poorly among the older voters, who form a very large part of the NY electorate. Most of the younger independents and democrats, who support him, failed to register for the primaries. And moreover, NY is the prestige fight for Clinton. She is spending tens of millions of USD, and is campaigning non-stop. That is exactly why fivethirtyeight is predicting a 15 to 20 point victory for Hitlery:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

 

[Moloch]

One of the candidates was born and raised in New York (Brooklyn)... it was Bernie Sanders... just saying

Sanders moved out of NY more than 50 years ago, and he has ZERO ties with the Democrat establishment there.

Sanders performs poorly among the older voters, who form a very large part of the NY electorate. Most of the younger independents and democrats, who support him, failed to register for the primaries. And moreover, NY is the prestige fight for Clinton. She is spending tens of millions of USD, and is campaigning non-stop. That is exactly why fivethirtyeight is predicting a 15 to 20 point victory for Hitlery:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

Meh, your prediction site also said she would win Michigan by 22%

I already explained the 3 main reasons why she is leading and will likely win New York, but it will be close, within 5% (unless there is blatant election fraud like Arizona)

[bryant.coleman]

Surprising results from the NY Democrat primaries. It is a lot tighter than expected, with exit polls showing Hitlery with 52% of the vote compared to 48% for Sanders. A difference of just 4%! Had Sanders mobilized some of his younger supporters to register before the October deadline, then he could have won this state by a good margin. Surprising results!

72% of the younger voters (18-29 yr. olds) went for Sanders.

[Slowturtleinc]

Really! Damn, I really like Bernie out of all options. Hope it gets closer, but still a good show!

[bryant.coleman]

Really! Damn, I really like Bernie out of all options. Hope it gets closer, but still a good show!

Right now, Hitlery is performing better than expected, with 61.5% of the votes. She is polling more than 70% of the vote in the African American dominated regions such as Bronx. The issue is that there are very few African Americans outside the NYC, and Sanders is leading in those regions.

I would be more cautious about the early results though, as most of them have come from minority-dominated regions such as Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island. Counting has't started in most of the white dominated regions.

[Moloch]

Of course there was election fraud in New York... who would have guessed?

Bernie’s Surging, Democrats Purging
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIzAyIUo7_g

In Brooklyn alone (Bernie's home turf), more than 125,000 registered democrats were changed to independent by the DNC

This affects the current look of things because it looks like Hillary will win by 15%+

But, after the courts decide to count the votes of people who had their affiliation changed by the DNC (provisional ballot)... the result will change drastically in Bernie's favor

[bryant.coleman]

With 94% of the votes being counted, Hitlery is ahead of Bernie by more than 15%. The margin of victory will be somewhere around 250,000 to 300,000 votes, and therefore I don't know whether the disenfranchised votes could have flipped the results. Anyway, New York was a do or die battle for Bernie, and the news is that he lost it.

[alyssa85]

Well Bernie got shellacked. And all the upcoming primaries are closed as well. If he had any sense he'd concede - but there is a lot of money involved. For example his family are being paid to be on the campaign staff, his campaign managers are getting commission for all the television ads they place (which is why he is outspending Clinton by vast amounts even though he knows it's a waste). They're going to milk the election train till the very end.

[Slowturtleinc]

Well Bernie is toast but really he was not a good option,just the best option of the crap!
Hilary is going to create a lot of profit for these companies that have been footing her bill and its business as usual.

[bryant.coleman]

Well Bernie got shellacked. And all the upcoming primaries are closed as well. If he had any sense he'd concede

Listen lady, why should he concede, especially when the other contender is using all sort of dirty tactics to rig the vote? Hundreds of thousands of eligible voters were disenfranchised by Hitlery's goons during the past primaries. Bernie supporters were intimidated and assaulted by Hitlery supporters. Conceding the election would mean agreeing with those tactics.

- but there is a lot of money involved. For example his family are being paid to be on the campaign staff, his campaign managers are getting commission for all the television ads they place (which is why he is outspending Clinton by vast amounts even though he knows it's a waste). They're going to milk the election train till the very end.

Do you work for Hitlery?

Care to give some proof? Never mind, as there won't be any. Sanders' family members are well educated and have decent jobs, unlike the Hitlery supporters who are dependent upon the welfare checks.

[Moloch]

all the upcoming primaries are closed as well.

Are you sure about that?

There are still a lot of states left, and I have only checked 1 of them, California... California is an open primary... 100% of the states I checked are open...

In fact, California is open to let independents vote for the democratic primary, but not republican... so they can't vote for Trump, but they can vote for Bernie... good times



Also note, Hillary's email scandal is still being investigated by the FBI... she could still be indicted while campaigning... wouldn't that shoe-horn Bernie into the nomination as the only valid candidate?

http://hotair.com/Former FBI agents to Director Comey: ‘Future of the Bureau’ rests on handling of Clinton email case

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/Yes, Bernie Sanders Will Become President. Hillary Clinton’s FBI Investigation Isn’t a ‘Nothingburger’

[alyssa85]

all the upcoming primaries are closed as well.

Are you sure about that?

I think Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania etc are all closed primaries. If he loses them, it's over, well before he gets to California.

[Moloch]

all the upcoming primaries are closed as well.

Are you sure about that?

I think Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania etc are all closed primaries. If he loses them, it's over, well before he gets to California.

A closed primary isn't an issue if they allow same-day voter registration...

The problem comes when you have a state like New York... which requires you to register 6 months before the election... before Bernie's campaign even started!

FWIW, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and California are all open primaries (for democrats anyway)

That's 8/15 states left... more than half have open primaries
http://voteforbernie.org/

[alyssa85]

all the upcoming primaries are closed as well.

Are you sure about that?

I think Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania etc are all closed primaries. If he loses them, it's over, well before he gets to California.

A closed primary isn't an issue if they allow same-day voter registration...

The problem comes when you have a state like New York... which requires you to register 6 months before the election... before Bernie's campaign even started!

I understand New York has had those rules for forty years - and a 74 year old like Bernie should have known about it, given that the rules have been in place half his life.

He lost because people just don't like him. The ones who did like him were put off by his stumbling answers in his interviews to the New york press. He's done.