if you're not buying

[paulie_w]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

i don't understand any of you sell, ever. i would not sell a single bitcoin until at least 5-6 years from now. whether $5 or $500, what price you buy at until then probably doesn't matter in the slightest.

think about that guy who spent 10,000 on a pizza. i'll bet he'd rather have $270,000 in value right now but never even considered that it might be possible.

guys, at _$3000_ per bitcoin, we're still talking about a total market cap that is roughly only equal to a _single_ fortune 500 company.

so, i think you're all crazy. the only threads here should be "buy!" "fucking buy now!" and "still buying!"

[1714890280]

1714890280

[1714890280]

1714890280

[marhjan]

think about that guy who spent 10,000 on a pizza. i'll bet he'd rather have $270,000 in value right now but never even considered that it might be possible.

Consider the fact that if the pizza transaction, and the few pairs of alpaca socks which actually sold never happened, btc may have never gotten off the ground.  I'm quite sure that even with hindsight the buyer of that pizza considers it a worthwhile investment.

[lucif]

Such threads always appear at bubble top, as goofs always join last.

Happy bulls screaming everywhere is a first warning sign =) As well as situation when blood runs on street and everybody selling - is a good sign for reversal.

You better watch the signs, or you may miss the point of huge reversal with such overwhelming sentiment.

[mccorvic]

I do agree with you OP, but I don't have tons invested in BTC either.  I have always said buy and hold.  If the market crashes to $5 today I would, personally, still just buy and hold.  

The only exception is if the market jumped like $30 dollars in a day.  In that case I'd probably wait to buy for a week or two to test stability.

CLARIFICATION: I actually usually say Buy and Hold or Spend.  I think the 10,000BTC pizza was important and I do use BTC to buy goods/services whenever possible because BTC is more than just hoarding.  It's about a new economy for the Internetz.

[Nemesis]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

i don't understand any of you sell, ever. i would not sell a single bitcoin until at least 5-6 years from now. whether $5 or $500, what price you buy at until then probably doesn't matter in the slightest.

think about that guy who spent 10,000 on a pizza. i'll bet he'd rather have $270,000 in value right now but never even considered that it might be possible.

guys, at _$3000_ per bitcoin, we're still talking about a total market cap that is roughly only equal to a _single_ fortune 500 company.

so, i think you're all crazy. the only threads here should be "buy!" "fucking buy now!" and "still buying!"

LOL you should wonder why ppl even bother trading.

Better yet, just ask any hedge fund to .... just fucking buy.... thats a better way to earn returns and those big fat bonus!

[Vandroiy]

Such threads always appear at bubble top, as goofs always join last.

Happy bulls screaming everywhere is a first warning sign =) As well as situation when blood runs on street and everybody selling - is a good sign for reversal.

You better watch the signs, or you may miss the point of huge reversal with such overwhelming sentiment.

This never failed me in Bitcoin.

What I found strange is that many people use these words in situations where they don't apply. After the '11 bubble had just burst, when everybody was still confused but mostly bullish, they said "this is blood on the streets, the time to buy." However, when the market hammered down below 3 USD in a madness of shorts and panic afterward, they said "See you at $1".

Right now, the euphoria is obvious. To not see it, one has to not want to see it.

so, i think you're all crazy. the only threads here should be "buy!" "fucking buy now!" and "still buying!"

My question to you is: why are you posting this now that lots of people are in a frenzy to buy anyway?

Another question to everyone: there are many threads and posts of this type now. Where were they in September '11, when I had to get angry at bears for constantly insulting bulls or even balanced traders? We are over a factor 13 away from the low. Shouldn't anyone screaming now have screamed 13 times louder then?

[mccorvic]

Such threads always appear at bubble top, as goofs always join last.

Happy bulls screaming everywhere is a first warning sign =) As well as situation when blood runs on street and everybody selling - is a good sign for reversal.

You better watch the signs, or you may miss the point of huge reversal with such overwhelming sentiment.

This never failed me in Bitcoin.

What I found strange is that many people use these words in situations where they don't apply. After the '11 bubble had just burst, when everybody was still confused but mostly bullish, they said "this is blood on the streets, the time to buy." However, when the market hammered down below 3 USD in a madness of shorts and panic afterward, they said "See you at $1".

What lucif forgets is that the happy bulls were happy at $15...then $17....then $20....then $27.  It's not a very good indicator if it doesn't indicate anything.  It's almost like it's impossible to predict the market! What a shock!

[lassdas]

And if noone would ever sell (until at least 5-6 years from now, which is quite different from ever, but anyway),
then what would others buy?

I mean, there wouldn't be anything to buy and I guess those people that would never sell also don't even think about buying anything, then what would Bitcoin be good for? Where would it be today if noone ever actually used it?

[casascius]

All you sellers who don't have faith and see this as a bubble...feel free to sell any time.  Grab all the bids off the book before somebody else does.

There is a correlation between the steadiness of the hands holding Bitcoin and its market price.  Those of you who will sell on a whim need to be relieved of your coins so those of us wanting to hold them can see the price approach what we think is the true value.  So, please, sell sell sell.

[lebing]

And if noone would ever sell (until at least 5-6 years from now, which is quite different from ever, but anyway),
then what would others buy?

I mean, there wouldn't be anything to buy and I guess those people that would never sell also don't even think about buying anything, then what would Bitcoin be good for? Where would it be today if noone ever actually used it?

Hoarders sell, but just small amounts at a time. Casual miners are more likely to be selling (though those may be extinct soon).

[adamstgBit]

No this is not a game,  price is completely distorted, EVERYONE knows that... we are being fucked with!
Speculators have no choice to buy low and sell high, not to make money, but to survive this crazy market....

[mccorvic]

No this is not a game,  price is completely distorted, EVERYONE knows that... we are being fucked with!
Speculators have no choice to buy low and sell high, not to make money, but to survive this crazy market....

You're right. The price is really distorted. Still far too low.

[Nesetalis]

I think the OP missed out on the base value of bitcoin being that it is a medium of exchange. Without an exchange going on somewhere, your bitcoin would be next to useless.

I have two modes, save and spend.
Spend mode I convert USD to bitcoin to buy something, in that mode, I don't care one way or another what the price of bitcoins are... I'm purchasing with USD through bitcoin as a medium.

This means some one else is buying my USD for bitcoin, and that some one else is selling my bitcoins for some other currency. This cash flow means that the market is moving, living, and suggests value, allowing new users to buy in, selling their USD for bitcoin. If I was the only one buying high, not trading, there would be no one to put fluid bitcoins in to the market.

In other words, shut up and take my money, I have things to buy.

In savings mode, I watch the price and try to buy low, to maximize my investment. But I'm investing long term, I expect bitcoin to be around for at least a few decades. So what price I buy at now matters less than what price I expect it to get to in the future.

[waspoza]

All you sellers who don't have faith and see this as a bubble...feel free to sell any time.  Grab all the bids off the book before somebody else does.

There is a correlation between the steadiness of the hands holding Bitcoin and its market price.  Those of you who will sell on a whim need to be relieved of your coins so those of us wanting to hold them can see the price approach what we think is the true value.  So, please, sell sell sell.

+1

[byronbb]

The weakest trader in this market is a bear. He thinks about ALL TIME HIGHS and how bitcoin is prone to LARGE CRASHES. Perhaps he already had his pockets picked at 15-20, who knows. The price action from the steam up after 15 has been different that the rise from 2-15. There is almost NO profit taking. We go up a leg, the fish sell at the plateau and the price continues to rise. The pump and dump has ended.

[BitcoinRate.com]

If nobody is selling, nobody can buy as well...

[FreeMoney]

Anyone who never sells isn't playing aggressively enough. Use most of your savings, quit your job to run a bitcoin business and sell every week or month.

I'm not actually saying everyone should to this. But "True bitcoiner never sells" is bogus. True bitcoiner sells to eat because he has so damn many.

[MacMiner]

Anyone who never sells isn't playing aggressively enough. Use most of your savings, quit your job to run a bitcoin business and sell every week or month.

I'm not actually saying everyone should to this. But "True bitcoiner never sells" is bogus. True bitcoiner sells to eat because he has so damn many.

+1

[arepo]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.

[mccorvic]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.

Why are you so maaaaaaaad?

[arepo]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.

Why are you so maaaaaaaad?

i guess i should have expected another bubble. but i'm mad because this is worse than just early adopters surprised that suddenly their pockets are being lined. this is market manipulation and predatory speculation at its finest and only the newest bitcoin users are going to get burned. it seems the people here are just interested in getting rich, and don't care about the growth or long-term success of the project. we promote adoption, but now i realize that it's just to keep up the monetary influx into old wallets.

[mccorvic]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

people like you are why the price is so damn high, and people like you will be the bagholders soon enough.

Why are you so maaaaaaaad?

i guess i should have expected another bubble. but i'm mad because this is worse than just early adopters surprised that suddenly their pockets are being lined. this is market manipulation and predatory speculation at its finest and only the newest bitcoin users are going to get burned. it seems the people here are just interested in getting rich, and don't care about the growth or long-term success of the project. we promote adoption, but now i realize that it's just to keep up the monetary influx into old wallets.

Yes, I do think people who buy with only plans to sell later are bad.  I think people who tell others to buy buy buy! with terrible charts are also bad (op here could actually be included). I also think it's all the bears posting terrible charts that hurt bitcoin. What evidence do you have that it's a *gag* monetary influx into old wallets besides you having sold already?

I do think that the majority of this price increase is due to the halving finally taking effect (I never believed the "priced in" arguments), wider adoption, and all the good good news.  I do think bitcoin is still terribly undervalued for what it can do.  I think that there are plenty of people who have way more bitcoin than they know what to do with due to the imbalanced distribution to early adopters but with each dump it goes to people who have more interest in bitcoin succeeding.

I just see you posting doom and gloom for no reason out side of being mad for some reason.  The price is going up, so what? Why does that instantly mean bubble and crash and oh no bitcoin iz dead?

[Namworld]

I sell all the time, especially when price is high, and buying back low.

I need to put food on the table, regardless if price will skyrocket in the long term. Of that no one can be sure. Either way I still try to save a bit.

Plus I'm a services provider & trader. There will be other Bitcoins to be had.

[Timo Y]

Whether I own $ 10 Million or 9 Million worth of bitcoin 5 years from now, makes no difference to my well being whatsoever.

An extra $1000 to spend right now does make a big difference to my well being.

Therefore, it's perfectly rational to sell or spend a fraction of my bitcoin savings right now, especially when there is still a 50% chance that bitcoin will be worthless in 5 years.

It's called the falling marginal utility of money.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I sell! I don't sell to make Fiat, as I've never pulled Fiat out of the system. I sell to get more Bitcoins on the dips. The "get rich quick" idea, or perhaps more properly put "Buying power rich quick" is seemingly on everyone's mind in this forum regardless of their views of Fiat, and (I think) that is the main reason for all the bubble talk. Those who say they'll never sell would be rethinking their decision as they watch their buying power slipping away. My base price is sub $1, so I completely understand the joy of more buying power that we are seeing, but this rise needs to retest some lower levels to instill real confidence other than "it's gone up this far, it'll never go down" like many here obviously believe. A retest to solidify this rise. No other financial markets on Earth have 1100% rises in a little more than a year without a burst, why should Bitcoin be any different. Not a bubble? Please.

Yes, I'll be the first to say, I'm definitely Bearish at the moment. Not because I sold some BTC (I have plenty of Bitcoins if I never get a chance to buy back cheaper), I'm Bearish because the sentiment here is out of control.

[Nesetalis]

I'm a long term bull..
but I purchased 20 bitcoins back in december at around 11$...
I'm going to sell 20 bitcoins today.
160% profit.
if I never have a chance to buy back in I still have 160% profit. If I do get to buy back in, great.
But I still have many more bitcoins sitting in my wallets, waiting for use or not.
I buy things... I save the lions share, but I am NOT going to pretend I'm not making money by selling now. Even if I could make more money later... I WILL make more money now, and I don't need huge 1000% profits, 160% is quite good enough ^.~

[mccorvic]

I'm a long term bull..
but I purchased 20 bitcoins back in december at around 11$...
I'm going to sell 20 bitcoins today.
160% profit.
if I never have a chance to buy back in I still have 160% profit. If I do get to buy back in, great.
But I still have many more bitcoins sitting in my wallets, waiting for use or not.
I buy things... I save the lions share, but I am NOT going to pretend I'm not making money by selling now. Even if I could make more money later... I WILL make more money now, and I don't need huge 1000% profits, 160% is quite good enough ^.~

The fallacy you're committing here is thinking that selling for USd equates to profit.  I have not sold any of my bitcoins and I have the same stored value as if I were to convert BTC to USD. All you've done is ended up with the same value with the potential to lose value as BTC continues to increase in value.

[Nesetalis]

the fallacy you are committing is thinking i'm giving two shits about the currency itself.
It is just a medium of exchange and bitcoin also doubles as savings right now.
that 20 bitcoins i sell, if the price drops before i use that money, then i buy more bitcoins.. but the profit is what i can acquire... over twice as much as what I could acquire before.
thus, profit.
I don't care if you hate the USD, the fact that I have higher buying power now is what matters.

[mccorvic]

the fallacy you are committing is thinking i'm giving two shits about the currency itself.
It is just a medium of exchange and bitcoin also doubles as savings right now.
that 20 bitcoins i sell, if the price drops before i use that money, then i buy more bitcoins.. but the profit is what i can acquire... over twice as much as what I could acquire before.
thus, profit.
I don't care if you hate the USD, the fact that I have higher buying power now is what matters.

Teehee. You didn't even read what I wrote.

[Nesetalis]

the profit was buying bitcoins the price of bitcoins rising, and selling for USD.
the entire ordeal was profit.
there is no way around that.

so yes, I read what you said, you just didn't say anything that made much sense

[mccorvic]

the profit was buying bitcoins the price of bitcoins rising, and selling for USD.
the entire ordeal was profit.
there is no way around that.

so yes, I read what you said, you just didn't say anything that made much sense

Ah, but I'm coming from the stand point that Bitcoin and USD are of equal worth.  If you find Bitcoin just something that is worthless and you happened to flip it, then yea, I guess you can say you have more USD then before.  But if I sell Bitcoin for USD I would do it because I would need USD for something specific that I couldn't get with BTC.

[Elwar]

Most people are not sitting on buttloads of cash.

When a majority of Americans are deep in debt and live paycheck to paycheck, selling for some reason or another is inevitable.

Especially in a recession.

[XxionxX]

I will trade a large portion my coins for 40 fertile acres in the Midwest or California. I also need solar panels and batteries, a diesel powered mobile welder, assorted building materials, chickens and goats, several guns, and assorted plant starts/seeds.

Yeah, I need some assets. Bitcoins are only an investment and hedge against the dollar for me. I understand they might be worth more, but I have some immediate needs :/ It's not like I can wait around forever just keeping a stack of coin and cackling about the value.

[niko]

This is really an issue of logic and epistemology, not economics. Please bear with me.

Now is now, and then was back then. There is no way to travel back in time with "these" coins or this knowledge. Comparing a coin today to coin back then is therefore meaningless.
Consider a medieval king: he lived "like a king" - but by my standards, he lived a shitty life: no antibiotics, no dental fillings, no glasses if he needed them. Couldn't even hop on a plane and see new places the same day. No option to remove apendix when it's rupturing. The point is, I cannot travel back in time, nor can we bring him forward in time. It's a meaningless comparison.

That pizza was very well worth 10,000 back-then coins. That's why it was traded. Besides, nobody knows with certainty what a coin will be worth next year. If we knew with certainty, it would have already happened - it would have been past, not the future.

Spend and earn your coins as you see fit. No need to play Captain Hindsight.

[XxionxX]

California. several guns

I suggest you avoid California. 

Meh, I'm not starting a war. I just want to keep my ranch safe and my animals from being eaten by something. They haven't outlawed semiautomatic rifles... yet.

[evolve]

then what the hell are you doing messing with bitcoin anyway?

Profiting.

[Melbustus]

If the price is rising without new users, yeah, it'll crash pretty hard pretty soon. But if it's mostly from new user growth, sure there'll still be a correction, but it won't necessarily be huge or necessarily signal a medium-term trend reversal.

Remember that the crash from the $32 high in 2011 was precipitated by a hack, which, if memory serves, brought us to $17-$20 for a bit, but then it was 6 months of scam/hack after hack/scam, with the associated never-ending barrage of completely misleading under-researched BS negative press (@wired specifically comes to mind...) which brought us to $2. That's not the ecosystem we're in today.

[arepo]

Yes, I do think people who buy with only plans to sell later are bad.  I think people who tell others to buy buy buy! with terrible charts are also bad (op here could actually be included). I also think it's all the bears posting terrible charts that hurt bitcoin. What evidence do you have that it's a *gag* monetary influx into old wallets besides you having sold already?

I do think that the majority of this price increase is due to the halving finally taking effect (I never believed the "priced in" arguments), wider adoption, and all the good good news.  I do think bitcoin is still terribly undervalued for what it can do.  I think that there are plenty of people who have way more bitcoin than they know what to do with due to the imbalanced distribution to early adopters but with each dump it goes to people who have more interest in bitcoin succeeding.

I just see you posting doom and gloom for no reason out side of being mad for some reason.  The price is going up, so what? Why does that instantly mean bubble and crash and oh no bitcoin iz dead?

evidence for new money into old wallets: "buy bitcoins" google trends.

the halving argument is ridiculous. the inflation rate halved, not the god damned supply. there is a huge difference here.

bitcoin is undervalued for what it can do, but speedy growth is not sustainable for reasons that should be clear to any speculator.

i'm posting doom and gloom not because i have sold but because i feel that we are reaching the price-point for many big fish to take profit. this introduces volatility and uncertainty in the exchange rate which will hamper bitcoin's adoption and growth in the mid-term.

it doesn't instantly mean bubble and crash, although many bubble and crash indicators are going off. do you even read my posts?

[johnyj]

The year is 2015, BTC exchange price doubled every 2 month, everyone buying BTC become rich, there are more consumption, more people are quiting their job and retiring, jobless rate down, GDP up, and inflation is low, it even caused deflation because all money are flowing to BTC

There is a shortage of USD, people start to borrow USD to buy BTC. The banks are very happy to issue the loan, this is their first big wave of customer after housing bubble

Finally FED become concerned and start to tighten, banks stopped issuring new loan, people start to sell their BTC to pay back the loan, the BTC price advancing stopped

But since BTC are also traded in other exchanges by that time, US monetary policy only stablized the USD/BTC price, it won't stop other currencies flowing into BTC to chase the wealth effect. As a result, USD/EUR exchange rate increased very quickly, and hurt US export badly, then there will be a G20 meeting, discuss the worldwide monetary tighten strategy...

[arepo]

everyone buying BTC become rich

is there free candy and infinite energy, too?

this is such a joke. trading is zero-sum. everyone CANNOT become rich.

still following? take the bulls out of your ears. everyone cannot become rich.

okay, good. hopefully i've gotten to a few of you finally.

[arepo]

Everyone who wrests control of their money back from the banksters are richer for it. So is society. 

that is profound. i concede

[notme]

everyone buying BTC become rich

is there free candy and infinite energy, too?

this is such a joke. trading is zero-sum. everyone CANNOT become rich.

still following? take the bulls out of your ears. everyone cannot become rich.

okay, good. hopefully i've gotten to a few of you finally.

While your bold statement is correct, it is entirely possible for everyone that reads this forum regularly at this point in time can become rich.  There are a lot more people who haven't even heard of bitcoin yet.

[arepo]

everyone buying BTC become rich

everyone CANNOT become rich.

While your bold statement is correct, it is entirely possible for everyone that reads this forum regularly at this point in time can become rich.  There are a lot more people who haven't even heard of bitcoin yet.

this is true. i concede to this point as well. the post i quoted did not make that important distinction, though.

[johnyj]

everyone buying BTC become rich

everyone cannot become rich.

In a debt based fiat money system, it is a zero sum game, your saving comes from another people's debt, so your conclusion is correct

But in a debt free money system like bitcoin, it is totally possible that everyone are rich, since every BTC existed are not a kind of loan, the electricity, time and R&D cost of the mining equipment has all been paid and contains in each BTC, it is debt free and have value coined in, everyone can get BTC with their product/service without incur a debt somewhere else in the society

Ignore the USD exchange rate, that partly depends on the USD supply by FED, do not really represent the real value of BTC, market is discovering that value now

[niko]

everyone buying BTC become rich

everyone cannot become rich.

In a debt based fiat money system, it is a zero sum game, your saving comes from another people's debt, so your conclusion is correct

But in a debt free money system like bitcoin, it is totally possible that everyone are rich, since every BTC existed are not a kind of loan, the electricity, time and R&D cost of the mining equipment has all been paid and contains in each BTC, it is debt free and have value coined in, everyone can get BTC with their product/service without incur a debt somewhere else in the society

Ignore the USD exchange rate, that partly depends on the USD supply by FED, do not really represent the real value of BTC, market is discovering that value now

Yes. I will just repeat myself here:

Yes, we can all get rich if we keep voluntarily assigning value to bitcoins in terms of goods and services we trade via Bitcoin network. If more and more people keep valuing their labor, fiat, or property in terms of bitcoins, the value of coins will keep rising. The opposite applies, too.

[arepo]

everyone buying BTC become rich

everyone cannot become rich.

In a debt based fiat money system, it is a zero sum game, your saving comes from another people's debt, so your conclusion is correct

it's a zero-sum game regardless.

say bitcoin were a closed system. no more fiat influx, constant market cap. any gains any trader makes will be another traders' loss. someone selling coins they bought for $5 last summer for $27 picks $22 out of every pocket which bought coins at higher prices.

however -- and this is niko's point as well -- since the market cap is small compared to the potential market cap, there is an influx of fiat which might allow for huge amounts of deflation on the long term which means anyone holding btc now who is still holding btc then will get a really, really good return on that investment.

but even in this case, everyone will not become rich. if you mean everyone who has btc now, then sure, but that's a pitifully small number compared to the amount of people and fiat required to really blow the price that high, and the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

[lebing]

no, not everyone will be rich. Only everyone reading these forums right now. 

[niko]

everyone buying BTC become rich

everyone cannot become rich.

In a debt based fiat money system, it is a zero sum game, your saving comes from another people's debt, so your conclusion is correct

it's a zero-sum game regardless.

say bitcoin were a closed system. no more fiat influx, constant market cap. any gains any trader makes will be another traders' loss. someone selling coins they bought for $5 last summer for $27 picks $22 out of every pocket which bought coins at higher prices.

however -- and this is niko's point as well -- since the market cap is small compared to the potential market cap, there is an influx of fiat which might allow for huge amounts of deflation on the long term which means anyone holding btc now who is still holding btc then will get a really, really good return on that investment.

but even in this case, everyone will not become rich. if you mean everyone who has btc now, then sure, but that's a pitifully small number compared to the amount of people and fiat required to really blow the price that high, and the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

But how about extending this thought experiment beyond mere speculative trading? If people kept working and creating new value, and pricing it in btc, wouldn't everyone holding bitcoins become and remain "rich" in the sense that they would be able to exchange them for more and more goods/services?

[flaab]

I just bought gold with my bitcoins and cashed out from one bull market to another.
Buy I have some bitcoins to play with in case it goes parabolic :-)

[thoughtfan]

...the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

Nobody's 'taking' anybody else's money.  At whatever level the 'last ones to convert' happens if they were buying purely in order to make money from increasing BTC value relative to fiat then they will have 'lost'.  They will have made a bad judgement call assuming the future to repeat the past.  However if they are buying Bitcoin for any other reason such as a store of value or in order to use it to buy stuff (which even if those buying today are the 'last ones' is reasonable) they will have not lost.

However the longer and wider the distribution goes on the more robust Bitcoin becomes, the less prone it is to being devalued overnight by one means or another.  The reward for 'early adopters' (whether you're talking 2010/11 folk or today's) will have come from having taken that risk.  People keep knocking hoarders.  With bitcoin being as divisible as it is it REALLY doesn't matter how many people just buy and hold nor does it matter how much they hoard.  The amount that's left, however tiny, is still plenty to be used for trading for day-to-day goods and saving.  It doesn't deprive anyone else of anything. It's all good

[xxjs]

...the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

Nobody's 'taking' anybody else's money.  At whatever level the 'last ones to convert' happens if they were buying purely in order to make money from increasing BTC value relative to fiat then they will have 'lost'.  They will have made a bad judgement call assuming the future to repeat the past.  However if they are buying Bitcoin for any other reason such as a store of value or in order to use it to buy stuff (which even if those buying today are the 'last ones' is reasonable) they will have not lost.

However the longer and wider the distribution goes on the more robust Bitcoin becomes, the less prone it is to being devalued overnight by one means or another.  The reward for 'early adopters' (whether you're talking 2010/11 folk or today's) will have come from having taken that risk.  People keep knocking hoarders.  With bitcoin being as divisible as it is it REALLY doesn't matter how many people just buy and hold nor does it matter how much they hoard.  The amount that's left, however tiny, is still plenty to be used for trading for day-to-day goods and saving.  It doesn't deprive anyone else of anything. It's all good

All very successful businesses is based upon knowlege, means and ability to take action. Whatever I get from this, I surely deserve it.

[xxjs]

By the way, I still buy at this level. If it goes down half way, I really couln't care.

[KTE]

Yep I bought my last batch at 27.0 .. I don't expect to be able to predict any of these slopes so why try.

[Nesetalis]

good rule of thumb, if the price has gone up at least 50% in the past month, its probably a bubble.

[thoughtfan]

good rule of thumb, if the price has gone up at least 50% in the past month, its probably a bubble.

Doesn't 'rule of thumb' comes out of a sort-of common sense borne of experience?  My problem with this and many of the arguments coming out of 'typical adoption charts' or classic bubble charts etc. is that Bitcoin is too different to anything that has been before for us to be able to be able to reliably pin it to anything of that ilk.

Here's another one:  "If it sounds to good to be true it probably is".  Those who have been around Bitcoin some time have got used to a price range that 'seems' reasonable.  I don't need here to point out what its potential is.  We all know it.  But given that Bitcoin's valuation, should it fulfill anything near its potential is totally off the map by today's price and that we have no way of quantifying the various risks to its future I don't think we have anything other than 'best guesses' as to what today's value should be.

All those saying 'it's definitely overvalued' as with those saying 'no way does its price reflect anywhere near as high as its value' are simply expressing (and trading) their beliefs rather than 'what is'.  Currently I think the former, along with weak hands who just don't have the stomach for it, are the ones causing today's spikes and average price drop.  Good luck to them   I'm tending to think every time an opportunity for a big correction comes along (like today) and the bears aren't jumping on it to plummet the price the less likely it is that we will ever again see prices much lower than what we see today.

[notig]

Some people think it's too risky to invest right now after this recent surge in price. I think it's to risky not to be invested. Sure the price may go down. The bubble may burst. What if it's only a 3 dollar bubble?
I can sleep better at night if I have a stash of bitcoins. Even if the price is going down... better than I could sleep if I didn't have any and the price was rising, lol.

[KTE]

Some people think it's too risky to invest right now after this recent surge in price. I think it's to risky not to be invested.

I'm on the same boat. Luckily now my position is as big as I can justify in my portfolio, so I can just sit back, relax and watch what happens. Should I lose my whole BTC investment, I will consider it just like investing in a start up which didn't make it.

[johnyj]

it's a zero-sum game regardless.

say bitcoin were a closed system. no more fiat influx, constant market cap. any gains any trader makes will be another traders' loss. someone selling coins they bought for $5 last summer for $27 picks $22 out of every pocket which bought coins at higher prices.

however -- and this is niko's point as well -- since the market cap is small compared to the potential market cap, there is an influx of fiat which might allow for huge amounts of deflation on the long term which means anyone holding btc now who is still holding btc then will get a really, really good return on that investment.

but even in this case, everyone will not become rich. if you mean everyone who has btc now, then sure, but that's a pitifully small number compared to the amount of people and fiat required to really blow the price that high, and the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

A bought one BTC from B for $2, and B bought back the coin for $4, and A bought it back again for $8, and B bought it back again for $16 ... Each time they made 100% return and both of them become rich in the process. The people who holding the BTC feel he is rich since the BTC price is high and he can sell it even higher later, and the people just profited from the trade also become rich and he want to buy again to enjoy the next ride

You might notice that there is only one BTC at any time and they just exchange it for more and more fiat at each trade. So how long the price appreciation will last depends on how much fiat they can put in the trade, before they exhausted most of their fiat reserve, the process will continue

And in current debt driven monetary system, fiat must increase exponentially to support it from collapsing, banks are getting fresh fiat money all the time and there will be people borrow these money to buy coins. Actually these people will become very important customers for banks, because in a mature economy, there will be less company who are willing to borrow