Ultimate Hloders only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind?

[Fakhoury]

marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?

[Biodom]

If you zoom in on that BRK-A chart, you will get $1300 in 1984 and $84000 local peak in 1998, then it was choppy for a decade, still $73500 local minimum in 2008.
I cannot wait 32 years to divest at the max, but if bitcoin goes to 10-30K (counting either from 165 minimum or current 450 and using the same multiplier), that would be just fine with me in 14 years. I would use 50% to buy a bunch of RE then and collect monthly payments.

[marcus_of_augustus]

marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?

I'm still digesting this news ... intentionally slowly. It is one of those moves that could have long term implications ... Larry (gold-trashing) Summers and Gavin Andresen getting in bed together just gives me the shivers as a first impression but it needs some pondering. WU is just having a "me too" moment, I don't think they can gain anything from this in terms of materially changing their current technology infrastructure ... just street cred to be not seen as being left behind by their investors/owners.

[Fakhoury]

Thanks for above answer buddy.

I've just saw your ZH article submission to r/bitcoin, I see this insanly bullish.

Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reiable choice.

What do you think ?

[Carlton Banks]

marcus_of_augustus, what do you think about the latest investors in Barry Silbert’s DCG (WU and others) ?

I'm still digesting this news ... intentionally slowly. It is one of those moves that could have long term implications ... Larry (gold-trashing) Summers and Gavin Andresen getting in bed together just gives me the shivers as a first impression but it needs some pondering.

Maybe another legal name change: G. Andresen -> A. Skywalker

WU is just having a "me too" moment, I don't think they can gain anything from this in terms of materially changing their current technology infrastructure ... just street cred to be not seen as being left behind by their investors/owners.

Someone with large public BTC holdings would make my year buying an advertisement in the WSJ/Economist/FT, offering the Western Union executives super-trollish low offers on their stock (with terms that permit immediate sale/shorting etc) 10 satoshis for their total holdings?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reliable choice.

What do you think ?

Yes, long term it is bullish but how long that long term is depends on the development pace of tools to make handling (storage/transacting) bitcoins privately and securely convenient. The technically-competent wealthy are probably mostly already exposed to bitcoin but there is definitely still a lot of 'dumb' money who feel quite uncomfortable at the thought of having the power to be their own bank with a digital currency (yet will happily hand over millions to Panamanian lawyers because of a recommendation from a wealthy friend "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it").

Bitcoin management tools need to reach that tipping point in the convenience stakes whereby a herd of wealthy people will happily take control of their own wealth and exit the fiat system "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it". When that happens wealthy people will most definitely seek safe haven in bitcoin, in my opinion private wealth management represents the premiere use case in the long term. In the short to medium term, cross border transactions, niche internet commerce innovations, currency trading speculative activity and other weird/wonderful things you can only do with a digital money data type will drive interest.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Little know HLoDers fact, the coinbase address for Block #2, yes the second spendable bitcoin key ever created has the address

1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1

HLoD

let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?

edit: second not first key.

[Herbert2020]

i am going to have some stages in my mind for the price, and here is how: any price lower than $1000 i will only hold and accumulate as much as i can. but above $1000 i will start spending a little of my coins and still hold and accumulate along the spending.
the real price in my head is $5K and above that would the real value of bitcoin for me but we'll see how much higher it can get.

Little know HLoDers fact, the coinbase address for Block #1, yes the first spendable bitcoin key ever created has the address

1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1

HLoD

let that sink in, are we really in a time loop here?

wow, that is a nice find but sadly it is not block #1
it is block #2 : hash
and there are two more blocks before it #1 and #0 which pay the reward to different addresses

[OROBTC]

Why ? Because wealthy people will seek safe heavens more than ever and Bitcoin welcomes them as a reliable choice.

What do you think ?

Yes, long term it is bullish but how long that long term is depends on the development pace of tools to make handling (storage/transacting) bitcoins privately and securely convenient. The technically-competent wealthy are probably mostly already exposed to bitcoin but there is definitely still a lot of 'dumb' money who feel quite uncomfortable at the thought of having the power to be their own bank with a digital currency (yet will happily hand over millions to Panamanian lawyers because of a recommendation from a wealthy friend "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it").

Bitcoin management tools need to reach that tipping point in the convenience stakes whereby a herd of wealthy people will happily take control of their own wealth and exit the fiat system "'cause there are hundreds who are already doing it". When that happens wealthy people will most definitely seek safe haven in bitcoin, in my opinion private wealth management represents the premiere use case in the long term. In the short to medium term, cross border transactions, niche internet commerce innovations, currency trading speculative activity and other weird/wonderful things you can only do with a digital money data type will drive interest.

I do not have a good feel for how the wealthy (as a whole) feel about Bitcoin.  I am the only one among those I know who is into BTC (and some of the people I know are rich).

Also, BTC has a low market cap.  I only have a small holding of BTC vs my net assets, I hold more gold than BTC.

"Should Bitcoin get traction,..."   <--- So many think this way...  Yet BTC price would explode should more rich guys start buying BTC.

[marcus_of_augustus]

So less than 10k blocks ~60 days until halving reward. Here's anothers thoughts.

At this point, miners will be maximally hoarding coins in expectation of having to supplement their decreased btc income post-halving with saved coins. On this assumption miners will only be releasing those coins that they absolutely need to for covering exactly mining expenses, what does this mean? This means that the current actual btc issuance rate onto the market is very close to the cost of production. Further, let's assume that bitcoin pricing is being set at the margin by these fresh coins such that average cost of production is now then reflected very close to current market price. Which is backed up by the lack of success shorts are having bashing down prices very much at all, since it is hard up against the floor of production costs already.

But here's the kicker, if cost of production is being reflected as ~$450 and rising, I'd suggest that by the time halving arrives, and if shorts keep bashing price down such that there is no excess speculation baked in, then price will double within 6 months after halving. So $500-600 by halving and rising to at least twice that 6-12 months after halving is possible under this scenario.